Australian National University Researchers Describe Research in Risk Management (Air Pollution and Mortality Impacts): Insurance – Risk Management

2022 JUL 13 (NewsRx) -- By a News Reporter-Staff News Editor at Insurance Daily News -- New study results on risk management have been published. According to news reporting out of Canberra, Australia, by NewsRx editors, research stated, “This study quantifies the air quality impact on population mortality from an actuarial perspective, considering implications to the industry through the application of findings.”

The news reporters obtained a quote from the research from Australian National University: “The study focuses on the increase in mortality from air quality changes due to extreme weather impacts. We conduct an empirical study using monthly Californian climate and mortality data from 1999 to 2019 to determine whether adding PM2.5 as a factor improves forecast excess mortality. Expected mortality is defined using the rolling five-year average of observed mortality for each county. We compared three statistical models, namely a Generalised Linear Model (GLM), a Generalised Additive Model (GAM), and an Extreme Gradient Boosting (XGB) regression model. We find including PM2.5 improves the performance of all three models and that the GAM performs the best in terms of predictive accuracy. Change points are also considered to determine whether significant events trigger changes in mortality over extended periods.”

According to the news editors, the research concluded: “Based on several identified change points, some wildfires trigger heightened excess mortality.”

For more information on this research see: Air Pollution and Mortality Impacts. Risks, 2022,10(126):126. (Risks - http://www.mdpi.com/journal/risks). The publisher for Risks is MDPI AG.

A free version of this journal article is available at https://doi.org/10.3390/risks10060126.

Our news journalists report that more information may be obtained by contacting Zhe Michelle Dong, Research School of Finance, Actuarial Studies and Statistics, Australian National University, Canberra, ACT 2601, Australia. Additional authors for this research include Han Lin Shang, Aaron Bruhn.

(Our reports deliver fact-based news of research and discoveries from around the world.)