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October 29, 2024 Newswires
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3Q24 Investor Package

U.S. Markets via PUBT

October 29, 2024

Our Fellow Shareholders:

The first rate cut in four years has finally landed and the Federal Reserve seems to be getting the job done. While the presidential election is obviously the main event right now, real estate capital market sentiment has dramatically improved among lenders and equity investors alike. Apartment fundamentals have strengthened in the face of extremely limited supply, and office has cleared its bottom with improved leasing fundamentals for the first time in years. If that wasn't enough good news, somewhat surprisingly, the five-dayin-office workweek is making a comeback with Amazon's announcement in September that it will mandate a five-dayin-office workweek starting in the new year. This change is clearly a trend with several other major employers making similar moves toward more in-office work, all at a time when office supply is rapidly diminishing to make way for conversions and teardowns. Tailwinds are clearly building for improved fundamentals and resulting NAVs, and the capital markets seem poised with a recovery to match. We know this recovery can take time, but against the backdrop of these trends our team and our business are performing well and are positioned to capitalize on this next phase of the cycle.

Below are highlights since last quarter:

We closed on the sale of Fort Totten Square for $86.8 million. Year-to-date, we have closed $263.6 million of

capital recycling transactions representing an average 4.8% capitalization rate. Fort Totten Square is a 345- unit multifamily asset with approximately 131,000 square feet of retail in the Brookland/Fort Totten submarket of Washington, DC, a submarket where we have no other holdings. Proceeds were used to deleverage our balance sheet and provide capacity for accretive investments.

Our multifamily portfolio continued to perform well. Coming out of the strong summer leasing season, our In- Service portfolio occupancy increased by 140 basis points to 95.7% and was 97.0% leased. In our Same Store multifamily portfolio, we increased effective rents by 4.5% for new leases and 6.1% upon renewal while achieving a 60.0% renewal rate. Multifamily Same Store NOI for the quarter increased 3.5%.

Our two newly constructed towers in National Landing, The Grace and Reva, were 63.2% leased as of October 27th and we expect them to deliver $23.0 million of annualized NOI once stabilized. Leasing performance of the two towers totaling 808 units continues to exceed that of all five of our prior multifamily deliveries since 2017. We are thrilled with the performance of these buildings and expect to deliver an additional 775 units next year at Valen and The Zoe (2000/2001 South Bell Street).

We received Nareit's Impact at Scale Award and maintained a 5-star ranking from GRESB for both our operating portfolio and development pipeline, ranking first within our peer groups. Additionally, GRESB named us the Global Listed Sector Leader and Americas Regional Sector Leader for Diversified (Office and Residential) REITs and the Americas Regional Listed Sector Leader for Residential Development. These acknowledgments reflect our commitment to making a meaningful difference in the communities we serve, whether that be in promoting social equity through intentional projects or maintaining a high level of sustainability in our portfolios.

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Capital Allocation

As we move into a more positive macroeconomic landscape, we expect development opportunities will become more economically viable. While trends are moving in the right direction, we expect this recovery to be gradual. We continue to work through the entitlement and design of our 9.3 million square foot Development Pipeline, substantially all of which we expect will be entitled by the end of 2025. When construction costs and interest rates normalize, we will be prepared with an attractive portfolio of shovel-ready growth opportunities to monetize through land sales, ground leases, and joint ventures.

While acquisition opportunities remain scarce and pricing only marginally more attractive, the office market seems to have bottomed, and we expect the volume of office trades to increase, in particular for assets with conversion or redevelopment opportunity.

We continue to execute our plan to dispose of non-core assets. During the third quarter, we sold Fort Totten Square, a 345-unit multifamily asset with approximately 131,000 square feet of retail, our only asset in the Brookland/Fort Totten submarket of Washington, DC, for $86.8 million. Year-to-date, we have closed $263.6 million of capital recycling transactions, representing an average capitalization rate of 4.8%. We continue to seek opportunities to dispose of additional assets; accordingly, we are currently marketing assets for sale with a combined value totaling over $200 million.

We anticipate that new investments, including developments, acquisitions, and share buybacks, will primarily be financed through asset recycling, either in advance or retrospectively. We have allocated a significant amount of our capital to share repurchases, given the significant discount of our share price relative to net asset value. Our robust balance sheet and substantial liquidity enable us to take advantage of this disparity. So far this year, we have repurchased 10.8 million shares at an average price of $15.61, amounting to $168.3 million. Since launching our share repurchase program in 2020, we have bought back 56.6 million shares, which is roughly 38% of the shares and OP units outstanding as of December 31, 2019, at an average price of $19.88, totaling $1.1 billion.

Financial and Operating Metrics

For the three months ended September 30, 2024, we reported Core FFO attributable to common shares of $19.3 million, or $0.23 per diluted share. Annualized NOI was in line with last quarter, excluding assets that were sold or taken out of service. Our multifamily portfolio ended the quarter at 92.7% leased and 90.6% occupied, and our In- Service multifamily portfolio was 97.0% leased and 95.7% occupied. Our office portfolio ended the quarter at 80.7% leased and 79.1% occupied. Same Store NOI growth for the quarter was 0.5%.

As of September 30, 2024, our Net Debt to Annualized Adjusted EBITDA was 10.6x. Based on the previously disclosed known tenant vacates, we expect continued downward pressure on our earnings and, specifically, Same Store NOI for the office portfolio. We expect this pressure to persist at least through the end of 2025. Interest expense will continue to increase as we deliver our remaining under-construction asset and cease capitalizing interest on it. Between now and the completion of Valen and The Zoe, we expect upward pressure on our Net Debt to Annualized Adjusted EBITDA metric driven by the impact of tenant vacates and construction spend on our earnings and balance sheet. We expect these pressures will be lessened by: (i) additional income from the delivery and stabilization of The Grace, Reva, Valen, and The Zoe; (ii) rent growth in our existing multifamily portfolio given the limited multifamily supply pipeline in the DC metro area; and (iii) office demand in National Landing from prospective tenants seeking proximity to the Pentagon, local tech talent, and the placemaking attractions we have delivered.

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Our floating rate exposure remains low, with 91.4% of our debt fixed or hedged as of the end of the third quarter, after accounting for in-place interest rate swaps and caps. The remaining floating rate exposure is tied to our revolving credit facility and assets where the business plan warrants preserving flexibility. We continue to be well- positioned with respect to our near-term debt maturities with a weighted average debt maturity of 3.1 years, after adjusting for by-right extension options. During the quarter, we repaid the loan collateralized by 200 and 201 12th Street S., and 251 18th Street S., and executed a one-year extension of our Tranche A-1 Term Loan. We have $120.9 million of debt maturing next month (4.5% of total debt), which is non-recourseasset-level financing related to a non-core office asset in DC - one of the highly levered assets we referenced in our May investor day presentation. Looking ahead to 2025, we have $340.7 million of debt maturing representing 12.6% of total debt; however, approximately 90% of the debt maturing in 2025 is secured by a multifamily asset, an asset class which has proven to be readily financeable, even in challenging debt capital markets. Our primarily non-recourse asset- level financing strategy continues to be most valuable in an environment like today, providing a floor on our downside risk.

Operating Portfolio

Multifamily Trends

Our In-Service multifamily portfolio ended the quarter at 97.0% leased, up 0.1% quarter-over-quarter, and 95.7% occupied, up 1.4% quarter-over-quarter. In our Same Store multifamily portfolio, we increased effective rents by 4.5% for new leases, largely driven by our assets in National Landing, and 6.1% upon renewal while achieving a 60.0% renewal rate. Our multifamily portfolio generated 3.5% Same Store NOI growth for the three months ended September 30, 2024.

We are making excellent progress leasing The Grace and Reva (808 units), which we delivered last quarter. Move- ins began in February 2024, and the pace of leasing continues to exceed all five of our other multifamily deliveries since 2017. As of the end of the quarter, The Grace and Reva were 60.7% leased, and as of October 27th, they reached 63.2% leased. Notably, the residents of The Grace and Reva primarily work in three key industries that constitute a large part of the office tenant base in National Landing: professional services, defense, and technology. We believe that the amenity-rich environment we have developed in National Landing, along with the short commutes these buildings provide, are key factors contributing to their successful leasing performance thus far. With the completion of this asset, the upcoming delivery of Valen and The Zoe, and recent office sales, our transition to a majority multifamily portfolio is nearing completion.

Market-Wide (DC Metro) Multifamily Trends (based on CoStar and Apartment List data)

New starts remain essentially stalled in our submarkets, with only 3,103 units under construction across all submarkets in which we operate. That lack of new product has helped push market-wide occupancy to 94.1% and allowed rents to grow at 3.5%. The even more constrained go-forward development environment should help accelerate that growth over the next 24 to 36 months. Although the environment for new starts is perhaps becoming more favorable in light of the Federal Reserve's recent moves, we have yet to see any major urban core product move forward. The competitive moat of relatively more expensive new construction in our markets should help them remain free of new supply for longer than their suburban counterparts. Lower density stick multifamily starts will likely resume the soonest, particularly given the pressure on rents in many of those markets, where rents have now reached over $3.70 per square foot for the best located new product which is often still off Metro and in more suburban locations.

We continue to believe that the DC metro region is poised for a renaissance given its strong relative performance. While our region's 94.1% occupancy is equal to other Gateway markets, our region's rent growth at 3.5% compares favorably to the 0.6% recorded in the other Gateway markets. Our supply picture remains extremely favorable compared to Sunbelt peers, which should create an environment for continued strong growth when coupled with our

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region's relatively expensive single family and townhome stock of for-sale housing. The election, while pivotal at a national level, should have little bearing on multifamily demand based on historical precedent.

Office Trends

Our office portfolio ended the quarter at 80.7% leased and 79.1% occupied, both down approximately 1.5% quarter- over-quarter. In the third quarter, we executed 150,000 square feet of leases with a weighted average lease term of

6.3 years. While leasing volume this quarter was softer than the quarter prior, much of the decrease can be attributed to seasonality, where, in most years, the first and third quarters tend to be slower than the second and fourth. For second generation leases, the rental rate mark-to-market increased 1.2%.

As evidenced by recent tenant survey results, we're seeing a higher degree of engagement from our office tenants and an expectation of a higher level of service; based on the survey results, we've been rising to that level. These results also indicated that the number of tenants expressing an intent to renew increased by 25% year-over-year.

While renewals don't increase occupancy, they are a relatively low-cost way to maintain occupancy; year-to-date, our renewals in National Landing have average leasing costs of under $5 per square foot per annum. Leasing in National Landing continues to be driven primarily by office users who fall into three categories: (i) government contractors seeking growth and expansion; (ii) companies who need SCIF/secure facility space; and (iii) technology- related net new tenants largely attracted by the recent delivery of our years-long placemaking interventions. Further, we continue to see defense and technology tenants demonstrate demand for office space in National Landing, with approximately 80% of our leasing activity this year coming from tenants in those industries.

Our efforts to re-lease certain spaces will focus on buildings with long-term potential, concentrating occupancy in areas of National Landing that we have enhanced through our placemaking initiatives and that are accessible via multi-modal transportation. We've taken approximately 600,000 square feet out of service this year and plan to take out an additional 143,000 square feet by year-end. Our rationale for reducing competitive stock in National Landing remains the same: to help foster a healthier long-term office market while repurposing older, underutilized buildings for redevelopment, conversion to multifamily housing, hospitality, or other specialized uses.

We anticipate tenants will vacate approximately 475,000 square feet (approximately $21.5 million of annualized rent) in National Landing, of which approximately two thirds will occur in the fourth quarter of 2024 and the remainder in the first half of 2025. After accounting for these known vacates, and excluding the highly levered assets, our pro forma National Landing occupancy will be approximately 69%, and we expect very modest lease roll over the next five years, averaging approximately 8.5% per year. We expect approximately 70% of our resulting tenant base in National Landing to comprise sticky defense-tech tenants. Over the last three years, we averaged approximately 150,000 square feet of new leasing per year, excluding Amazon leases, and year-to-date we have executed over 240,000 square feet of new leases. Our current prospect pipeline is stronger than it has been in years and indicates a potential increase in new leasing activity. While we've already had success backfilling some space vacated in the second half of 2023 and first half of 2024, it is too early to tell how much of these vacates will be backfilled.

Market-Wide (DC Metro) Office Trends (based on JLL and CBRE data)

The office market, long lost at sea, finally seemed to sight the shoreline during the third quarter, although where, when, and how, it finally makes landfall, is still to be determined. By now, everyone reading this letter will have heard of Amazon CEO Andy Jassy's call for the retuto a five-daysin-office work environment, or perhaps the AWS CEO's more pointed enjoinder to his workforce: to look for work elsewhere if they were unhappy with the policy. It seems like these two leaders are not alone in their attitudinal shift - KPMG reported a massive change in sentiment among U.S. CEOs with 79% saying that they expect to be in the office five days per week by 2027, versus 34% claiming the same thing earlier this year. There are other recent data points supporting this attitudinal

4

shift as well, with Dell ordering its sales force back to five days in the office beginning in October, signaling that tech may be joining finance firms in more prescriptive retuto office mandates. These tech companies are joining the ranks of some of the most reliable and consistent users of office space - mission critical national security and DoD related agencies and their contractors. These groups have been much more present in their offices than their civilian counterparts and helped drive the outsized National Landing peak day occupancy of approximately 85% given the high concentration of those tenants that we enjoy in our portfolio.

While these trends all lean favorable, the backward-looking market statistics are still a mixed bag. JLL reports that year-to-date absorption in NortheVirginia is just -1.05 million square feet, or -0.7% of inventory. While on its face that signals flat demand, what we and the brokerage community have seen is a significant uptick in leasing activity

  • albeit with some caveats. The first is that the recent spate of transaction activity trends to renewals, with reported figures for the quarter suggesting that between approximately 60% to 80% of transactions in the market represent renewals versus a roughly 50% historical average. This is reflective of high costs around buildouts in particular, with many "zombie" buildings not able to perform on TI allowances or capital improvements, and many tenants weighing the cost of new buildouts. The other trend is that "rightsizing" remains a part of many transactions - both renewals and new - although JLL reports that this is beginning to slow. CBRE also noted that "85% of transactions above 10,000 square feet had a positive or neutral impact on occupancy" but that was "not enough to offset large contractions." What essentially seems to be happening is that, while most tenants are flat or growing, a few big ones have given space back - a positive sign as sentiment among the majority of companies seems to be trending in-office for the future. Much of the leasing activity that is being recorded is also in the defense, engineering, and technology space (55% of quarterly leasing) which bodes well as those industries are stalwart users of office space. Another positive indicator for the market is the discipline on new starts enforced by high costs and rates. After 951,000 square feet of deliveries this year, just 210,000 square feet remain under construction in the 158 million square foot NortheVirginia market according to JLL. If return-to-work mandates continue to spread and the cycle of givebacks indeed slows, this limited supply environment should help position the market well to start eating away at the 23.5% vacancy rate - particularly as many functionally obsolete office buildings in the market begin to be aggressively repurposed for other uses. JLL estimates over 10 million square feet of NortheVirginia office buildings are slated to be transformed into residential development sites - a figure that is likely to grow. If all of that development took place, office vacancy could fall to approximately 17%, representing a significant boost to the health of the market even without any of the uptick in demand we expect.

We continue to believe that markets with the best amenities and transit access will be the "winners" in this process, but we also believe that, as we have demonstrated in National Landing, the oldest product in many of those markets can become appealing candidates for redevelopment - adding amenities to surrounding office and reducing the denominator of "under demolished" building stock.

* * *

We are encouraged by the recent Federal Reserve action on interest rates, the apparent bottom in the office market, and the somewhat surprising retuof the five-dayin-office workweek. It is hard to believe that these events are still unfolding almost five years after the pandemic first surfaced. At the time we were not expecting the roller coaster that followed, but we were prepared. Since then, we have largely completed our portfolio transformation and are now almost majority multifamily. We have successfully repositioned the National Landing submarket and are now enjoying the most aggressive lease-up of any residential asset we have ever built. Our office leasing pipeline is more active than at any time since 2020, and the office denominator continues to shrink - all within an asset class that many users have suddenly realized they need more of, not less. While these trends are all decidedly positive, we know that recoveries build slowly with ups and downs, but that they can also accelerate quickly. Whatever the next tuin the cycle brings we will be prepared to capitalize on it.

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Finally, our Chief Development Officer, Kai Reynolds, will be retiring at the end of this year. We are deeply grateful for his friendship, his contributions to our success during his tenure, and the work he put in to position the company for future success. We wish Kai well in his next chapter.

Thank you for your continued trust and confidence.

Sincerely,

W. Matthew Kelly

Chief Executive Officer

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JBG SMITH Properties published this content on October 29, 2024, and is solely responsible for the information contained herein. Distributed by Public, unedited and unaltered, on October 29, 2024 at 20:23:53.390.

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