2020 Watch: How Much Do Debates Matter This Year?
Days to general election: 36
Days to first debate: 1
THE NARRATIVE
The race is tightening somewhat in some states, but
First, Trump and his allies are poised to dominate the national conversation as they escalate their push to confirm
Second, the first general election debate gives Trump a prime-time opening to test Biden’s physical and mental strength once and for all. Trump and Biden face off Tuesday night in
And while Trump has opportunities this week, so does Biden.
THE BIG QUESTIONS
How much do debates matter in 2020?
The expectations game was raging over the weekend, but on the eve of the first general election debate, it's worth pondering the significance of the first debate-stage meeting between Trump and Biden.
If recent history is any guide, the 2020 debates will not significantly change the direction of the election. Remember former President
At the same time, Trump and his team have so effectively lowered expectations for Biden by questioning his mental and physical health for much of the last year that the 77-year-old former vice president might be judged the winner if he can simply have an average night for 90 minutes.
The stakes may actually be higher for the president, who is running short on opportunities to alter the dynamics of the race.
Can Biden stay disciplined?
Biden talked a tough game when asked about his debate strategy over the weekend, but those close to the campaign tell us he's being advised to avoid too much direct confrontation or fact checking with the tough-talking Republican president.
Despite the concerns of his advisers, Biden sounded like he was spoiling for a fight on
The Democratic base no doubt wants Biden to take the fight to Trump, but the former vice president may win the long game here by playing it safe.
While some may not take him literally, Trump's team is the first to point out that the president has followed through with several campaign trail promises over the last four years. Therefore, it could be dangerous to shrug off his repeated refusals to agree to a peaceful transfer of power should he lose.
This is not the kind of question you'd expect a president to be asked in
We've already seen evidence of the president's supporters seizing on his rhetoric to commit acts of violence. This is dangerous territory.
Will
But the Trump campaign is investing
Our recent reporting in critical swing states like
THE FINAL THOUGHT
For millions of Americans,
State election officials have already issued more than 3 million absentee or mail ballots in
As expected,
2020 Watch runs every Monday and provides a look at the week ahead in the 2020 election.
AP’s Advance Voting guide brings you the facts about voting early, by mail or absentee from each state: https://interactives.ap.org/advance-voting-2020/
Endorsement: Geraldine Thompson’s a devoted public servant who earned another term in state House District 44
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