Democrats could advance legislation to address Social Security shortfall

LAS VEGAS - The Social Security Old-Age and Survivors Insurance Trust Fund — which pays retirement and survivor benefits — is projected to have its reserves depleted in the fourth quarter of 2032, according to the Social Security Administration Trustees Report.

One-third of the U.S. Senate was elected to a six-year term in the 2026 election, meaning every senator elected this year will have to address this projected depletion before 2032.

That was the word from Bill Arnone, former CEO of the National Academy of Social Insurance. Arnone gave his views on what comes next for Social Security after the midterm elections during Protectors 2026.

Arnone said Election Day turnout among older voters was one factor influencing the midterms. Surveys by The New York Times, AARP, and the University of Chicago found that, overall, Democrats won by 13 percentage points in total votes cast. Voters aged 65 and older supported Democratic candidates by 4 percentage points. AARP found older women voted Democratic by a 9-point differential, while older men voted Republican by a 5-point differential.

“Turnout is always higher among older voters,” he said, adding that 65% of voters were older voters and that 70% of eligible older voters showed up at the polls on Election Day.

Arnone said older voters said the top factor influencing their midterm vote was economic uncertainty. Specifically, 29% of those aged 50 and older cited the cost of food and other necessities, 24% cited healthcare and drug costs, and 21% were concerned about gasoline prices.

“So we know that older voters turn out, and we know 90% of them said they decided to vote for their member of Congress based on their willingness to support Social Security without cutting benefits,” Arnone said.

What might happen

Now that the midterms are in the history books, Arnone gave some possible scenarios for what could happen to Social Security.

“My best guess that the Democrats in Congress will develop a bipartisan Social Security legislative package with the hope of forcing a vote to get Republicans on record of whether they support Social Security.”

He predicted Republicans will take a pass on the proposal, while the Trump administration could be willing to strike some kind of deal.

Arnone said that Trump has a reputation for wanting to deal. “If he goes down in history as the president who saves Social Security, he will find that irresistible,” he said.

What might a Social Security deal include? Arnone had some ideas.

1. Finding revenues from something other than FICA.

2. A benefit reduction for higher earners, perhaps a reduced cost of living adjustment.

3. Raising the full retirement age.

Other ideas floated include requiring employers who replace workers with artificial intelligence to contribute to the Social Security Trust Fund and making employers responsible for paying the employee portion of Social Security.

Arnone said the Congressional Budget Office will offer its Social Security scorecard in 2027. The Brookings Institution will convene a conference at the end of January, where two of the nation’s leading Social Security scholars will put together their own analysis of policy options that can provide Social Security with financial stability.

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Susan Rupe is editor in chief, magazine, for InsuranceNewsNet. She formerly served as communications director for an insurance agents' association and was an award-winning newspaper reporter and editor. Contact her at susan.rupe@innfeedback.com.