2026 midterms: What’s in play and why it matters

Although the 2026 midterms are still months away, the battle for control in both chambers of Congress is already taking shape. While the House gets much of the spotlight, the Senate map is just as critical.

As of now, Republicans hold a 53-47 majority in the U.S. Senate, including independents who caucus with Democrats. To reclaim the majority, Democrats must defend every one of their current seats and flip at least four Republican-held ones. With 35 total Senate contests (including two special elections), Republicans will be defending 23 seats — many in increasingly competitive terrain.

Surprise retirements such as that of Sen. Thom Tillis, R-N.C., are already reshaping the landscape. His seat, in a state that leans red but remains competitive, will be one to watch, along with many others.

Here are three races that will shape control of the Senate: Maine, Georgia and Texas.

Maine: Sen. Susan Collins (R)  

Sen. Susan Collins, first elected in 1996, is seeking a sixth term in a state that has been trending blue. She currently serves on the Appropriations, Intelligence and HELP (Health, Education, Labor and Pensions) committees and now chairs the powerful Appropriations Committee, a role that gives her significant leverage in federal funding decisions. She has also been a tried-and-true champion for financial security, with a deep interest in retirement planning. This is no surprise in Maine, as nearly one-quarter of the state’s population is made up of retirees.

Despite Maine’s Democratic leanings, evidenced by Joe Biden’s 9-point victory in 2020 and Kamala Harris’s expected win in 2024, Collins has defied political gravity. In 2020, she won reelection by 8 points even as Donald Trump lost the state decisively. But with Maine fully controlled by Democrats at the state level, Collins may face her toughest race yet, especially if the national mood sours for Republicans under a second Trump presidency. 

In this race, it will come down to candidate quality for Democrats, who are still waiting to see if Gov. Janet Mills, who is term limited, decides to run. 

Georgia: Sen. Jon Ossoff (D)  

Sen. Jon Ossoff, elected in Georgia’s high-stakes 2021 runoff, is up for reelection in a state Trump carried by 2.2% in 2024. Ossoff sits on the Appropriations, Rules and Intelligence committees. He has leaned into a bipartisan tone, attempting to serve as a counterweight to Trump, although he has largely voted with his party.

Ossoff has already raised $31.9 million through Q1 2025, a war chest he’ll need to fend off what’s likely to be one of the most expensive races in the country. Republican hopes took a hit when Gov. Brian Kemp declined to run. Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene followed suit. Likely GOP contenders include U.S. Reps. Buddy Carter, Rich McCormick and Mike Collins; state Insurance Commissioner John King; and Lt. Gov. Burt Jones. 

Either way, Republicans view Ossoff’s 2020 win over Sen. David Perdue as a fluke, owing to the unique dynamics of a January runoff and Trump casting doubt on election security, coupled with the COVID-19 pandemic that depressed GOP voter turnout.

This will likely be the most expensive contest, echoing the more than $900 million spent in the 2020 twin runoffs. Ossoff’s strong fundraising and incumbency, along with Democratic-trending suburbs, give him an edge. Still, Republicans hope a disciplined primary and energized base could make Ossoff vulnerable.

Texas: Sen. John Cornyn (R)  

Texas was already going to be a closely watched race in 2026, but it exploded into national headlines when Attorney General Ken Paxton launched a primary challenge against Cornyn, turning a sleepy reelection into a high-stakes civil war within the GOP.

Cornyn, first elected in 2002, has been a pillar of Senate Republican leadership and won reelection by a margin of 9 points in 2020. Known for his measured, institutionalist approach, Cornyn has supported bipartisan efforts on infrastructure, gun safety and Ukraine aid stances that have increasingly alienated the Trump-aligned base of the party.

Paxton, a staunch ally of Trump, announced his campaign in April 2025. He immediately promised to bring a more combative, MAGA-aligned voice to the Senate. Despite legal issues — including a 2023 impeachment trial (he was acquitted) and ongoing investigations — Paxton is leading Cornyn in early polling and has rapidly built momentum among grassroots conservatives.

The fundraising battle is already underway. Cornyn reported $5.6 million cash on hand at the end of Q1, while Paxton raised $2.9 million in his first 12 weeks. Both campaigns are jockeying for a Trump endorsement, which could make or break either candidate. This will likely be settled by March; however, the Republican legislature is working on redrawing congressional districts, which may delay the primary election.

If Paxton wins the primary, Democrats will see an opening in the general election. While Texas still leans red, a scandal-laden, far-right nominee like Paxton could galvanize Democrats and moderates alike. Potential Democratic names include former Housing and Urban Development Secretary Julián Castro, Rep. Colin Allred and rising mayors from Texas’s urban centers. 

The road ahead 

Depending on the trajectory of Trump’s agenda and the impacts of H.R. 1, the One Big Beautiful Bill Act, paired with the economy, much can change between now and Nov. 3, 2026. What won’t change is Finseca’s commitment to keeping our members informed, engaged and prepared — no matter which way the political winds blow.  

Jennifer Fox is vice president of federal affairs with Finseca. Contact her at [email protected].