Wharton School Risk Management Center Releases Report ‘TRIA After 2014’

PHILADELPHIA, Aug. 8 -- The University of Pennsylvania'sWharton School issued the following news release:

The Wharton School of the University of Pennsylvania is pleased to announce release of the report, "TRIA after 2014" by the Wharton Risk Management and Decision Processes Center.

The Terrorism Risk Insurance Act (TRIA) is set to expire at the end of 2014 and is currently under debate in Congress. The full Senate passed S. 2244 in July 2014; the House Financial Services Committee passed H.R. 4871 in June 2014. These bills would modify the current program in different ways.

TRIA affects all corporations in America, large and small. To inform the renewal discussions on the structure of TRIA, the Wharton Risk Management Center is releasing its report, "TRIA After 2014: Examining Risk Sharing Under Current and Alternative Designs."

The report analyzes the impact of loss-sharing for the different stakeholders under the current program and proposed designs. Our analysis builds on data drawn from over 750 insurers across the United States by analyzing terrorist attack simulations in partnership with the risk modeling firm, Risk Management Solutions, in four states of the U.S.: California, Illinois, New York, and Texas.

As an illustration, should an attack occur in New York City:

* Under the current design of TRIA, American taxpayers will not be responsible for any payments after mandatory recoupment until the total commercial losses (insured and uninsured) from a terrorist attack exceed $40 billion.

* Under Senate bill S. 2244, American taxpayers will not be responsible for any payments after mandatory recoupment by the federal government until the total commercial losses from a terrorist attack (insured and uninsured) exceed $59 billion.

* Under House bill H.R. 4871 (with an insurance industry marketplace aggregate retention amount of $32 billion), American taxpayers will not be responsible for any payments after mandatory recoupment by the federal government until the total commercial losses from a terrorist attack (insured and uninsured) exceed $52 billion.

* Under House bill H.R. 4871 (with an insurance industry marketplace aggregate retention amount of $44 billion), American taxpayers will not be responsible for any payments after mandatory recoupment by the federal government until the total commercial losses from a terrorist attack (insured and uninsured) exceed $74 billion.

* Under the Senate bill, commercial policyholders would always pay more than $10 billion when total losses from terrorist attacks are in the $38 billion to $82 billion range. The maximum they would pay - $17.9 billion - is reached when total losses are $54 billion.

* Under House bill H.R. 4871 (with an insurance industry marketplace aggregate retention amount of $32 billion), commercial policyholders would always pay more than $10 billion when losses from terrorist attacks are in the $36 to $59 billion range. The maximum they would pay - $15.3 billion - is reached when losses are $46 billion.

* Under House bill H.R. 4871 (with an insurance industry marketplace aggregate retention amount of $44 billion), commercial policyholders would always pay more than $10 billion when losses from terrorist attacks are in the $36 to over $100 billion range. The maximum they would pay - $26.8 billion - is reached when losses are $63 billion.

The terrorist attacks of Sept. 11, 2001 inflicted $32.5 billion of insured losses ($44 billion in 2014 dollars). After paying these claims, insurers and reinsurers stopped providing coverage for terrorism in the United States unless required to do so. As a result, most businesses operating in the United States found it increasingly difficult to purchase commercial property insurance that included the risk of terrorism. To address this problem, TRIA was passed as a temporary program in 2002 and designed as a risk-sharing partnership between the insurance industry, commercial policyholders and the federal government (taxpayers) covering up to $100 billion of insured commercial losses.

"Over the past decade, our research team at the Wharton Risk Center has published more than 20 studies on terrorism insurance markets based on discussions with many of the key stakeholders interested in these issues in the United States and abroad," noted Erwann Michel-Kerjan, executive director of the Wharton Risk Center. "We hope this report, TRIA After 2014, assists Congress, the White House, the insurance industry and all commercial enterprises in America to make a more informed decision as to the future of terrorism insurance."

The report is available online free-of-charge at http://www.wharton.upenn.edu/riskcenter/terrorins.cfm.

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