Recession, not Affordable Care Act, slows health spending, study concludes
By Alex Nixon, The Pittsburgh Tribune-Review | |
McClatchy-Tribune Information Services |
Some politicians and supporters of
But according to the study, which appears in the August issue of the peer-reviewed journal Health Affairs, 70 percent of the slower growth of health care spending observed from 2009 to 2011 can be explained by the recession and its lingering effects.
"While the Affordable Care Act may yet prove to be a huge force for reducing health care spending, it is premature ... to make that claim," said
Dranove, along with two colleagues at
They found that the growth rate for health care spending was 2.6 percentage points lower in the 30 months after the Great Recession ended in
"Our estimates show that most of the recent slowdown in health spending growth, at least among the working population, can be attributed to the economic slowdown and not to other factors such as early responses to the ACA," the researchers write in the study.
Dranove said the study is limited to the population of Americans who receive health insurance coverage through work because the data used in the study came from insurance claims for employer-sponsored health plans from three of the nation's largest insurers, Aetna,
While people often lose insurance during recessions because of layoffs, even people who hold onto jobs and health coverage will cut down on medical expenses, Dranove said. This has been particularly true in the last several years as employers shifted higher health costs onto their workers through bigger deductibles and premium payments, he said.
The researchers argue that as the economy continues to improve, the expansion of health care spending is likely to again outpace overall economic growth.
Health care spending increased dramatically between 2000 and 2009, but has fallen slightly in the last several years, according to data from the
Health care as a share of gross domestic product increased from 13.4 percent in 2000 to 17.4 percent in 2009, CMS data show. By 2012, health care's share of the national economy had declined to 17.2 percent.
The recession officially ended in
In the last 18 months, health care spending has been steadily increasing again, according to data from the
Despite the increase more recently, Dranove said the law still may have an impact on health spending.
"We're not writing off the Affordable Care Act. It was probably too early to expect it do something," Dranove said. "Just because spending has gone up a bit doesn't mean that (the law) failed. ... It's fighting against the larger economic recovery."
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