Zacks Small Cap Research Report
Sponsored - Impartial - Comprehensive
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(NYSE: |
We maintain our price target of
Utilizing a scenario analysis methodology for future projections of book value per share, we believe
Current Price (3/19/24) |
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Valuation |
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OUTLOOK
SUMMARY DATA
52-
52-Week Low
One-Year Retu(%)
Beta
Average Daily Volume (sh)
Shares Outstanding (mil)
Market Capitalization ($mil)
Short Interest Ratio (days)
Institutional Ownership (%)
Insider Ownership (%)
Annual Cash Dividend Dividend Yield (%)
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Risk Level |
Low |
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Type of Stock |
Small-Value |
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9.63 |
Industry |
Insurance |
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0.46 |
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7,055 |
ZACKS ESTIMATES |
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13.578 |
Revenue |
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(In millions of $) |
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Q1 |
Q2 |
Q3 |
Q4 |
Year |
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N/A |
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(Mar) |
(Jun) |
(Sep) |
(Dec) |
(Dec) |
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88 |
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2021 |
158 A |
164 A |
167 A |
189 A |
678 A |
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44 |
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2022 |
130 A |
148 A |
194 A |
156 A |
628 A |
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2023 |
151 A |
142 A |
126 A |
109 A |
528 A |
2024 |
90 E |
94 E |
99 E |
111 E |
453 E |
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4.81 |
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EPS / Loss Per Share
5-Yr. Historical Growth Rates
Sales (%)
Earnings Per Share (%)
Dividend (%)
P/E using TTM EPS
P/E using 2023 Estimate
N/A |
Q1 |
Q2 |
Q3 |
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N/A |
2021 |
(Mar) |
(Jun) |
(Sep) |
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N/A |
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- |
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2022 |
- |
- |
A |
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16.0 |
2023 |
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A |
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2024 |
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E |
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16.0 |
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Q4 |
Year |
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(Dec) |
(Dec) |
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A |
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- |
A |
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A |
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E |
P/E using 2024 Estimate
12.1 Quarterly revenues may not equal annual revenues due to rounding. Quarterly EPS may not equal annual EPS due to rounding, dilution or intangibles.
© Copyright 2024, Zacks Investment Research. All Rights Reserved.
WHAT'S NEW
Full Year 2023 Financial Results
In the company's core operating subsidiary, Penn-America, gross written premiums in aggregate for Wholesale Commercial, InsurTech, and Assumed Reinsurance business grew by 11.6% in 2023. Gross written premiums for the Programs line decreased 40.5% in 2023 due to rate and underwriting actions taken to improve profitability in
Penn-America's accident year underwriting income was
Net investment income increased to
Approximately
Segment Review
During the 4th quarter of 2023, the company re-evaluated its segments and determined that the business should be managed through two reportable segments: Penn-America and Non-Core Operations. The Penn-America segment comprises the company's core products which include Wholesale Commercial, Programs, InsurTech, and Assumed Reinsurance. The Non-Core Operations segment contains lines of business that have been de-emphasized or are no longer being written.
In the Penn-America segment, gross written premiums and net written premiums for Wholesale Commercial, InsurTech, and Assumed Reinsurance businesses increased 11.6% and 13.1%, respectively, in 2023. The growth in Wholesale Commercial is driven by new agency appointments, strong rate increases as well as exposure growth in both property and general liability. The growth in InsurTech is primarily due to new agent appointments and focused marketing efforts. The growth in Assumed Reinsurance is primarily due to new treaties assumed in 2023. Gross written premiums for Programs decreased 40.5% as mentioned above. Penn-America's total gross written premiums and net written premiums declined by 4.7% and 3.6%, respectively, reflecting the large decline in Programs.
In the Non-Core Operations segment, gross written premiums and net written premiums decreased 86.2% and 80.8%, respectively, in 2023. The decrease in gross written premiums and net written
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premiums were primarily due to selling the manufactured home & dwelling and farm businesses and the non-renewal of a casualty reinsurance treaty.
Combined Ratios
The consolidated combined ratio was 99.7% for the full year (Loss Ratio 61.1% and Expense Ratio 38.6%) as compared to 98.8% (Loss Ratio 59.6% and Expense Ratio 39.2%) for 2022. The consolidated accident year property loss ratio improved by 6.6 points to 55.0% in 2023 from 61.6% in 2022. The improvement is primarily due to lower non-catastrophe claims frequency and severity within Penn- America partially offset by higher catastrophe claims frequency. The consolidated accident year casualty loss ratio increased by 0.5 point to 61.1% in 2023 from 60.6% in 2022. Higher claims severity in the two problematic books mentioned above contributed to the increase.
In the Penn-America segment, the accident year combined ratio was 95.2% for 2023 (Loss Ratio 57.4% and Expense Ratio 37.8%) as compared to 96.5% (Loss Ratio 59.0% and Expense Ratio 37.5%) for 2022. Excluding the
In the Non-Core Operations segment, the calendar year combined ratio was 87.9% for 2023 (Loss Ratio 47.1% and Expense Ratio 40.8%) which compares to 101.1% (Loss Ratio 59.4% and Expense Ratio 41.7%) in 2022. The decline in the loss ratio resulted from the commutation of a reinsurance treaty and favorable development in the exited Farm, Ranch & Stable business.
Suspension of Exploration of Sale or Merger
On
The company also announced that it increased the size of its Board of Directors to seven members to accommodate the new designation of
Potential Acquisition
On
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Valuation and Estimates
Or 2024 total revenue estimate is
KEY INVESTMENT POINTS
Source: investors.gbli.com
Global Indemnity Group, LLC (NYSE:GBLI) is a specialty property and casualty insurance company that has been operating nationwide since the early 2000's.- The company is led by an experienced management team, including a Chief Executive who has decades of experience in the property & casualty insurance business.
- The company operates through two primary segments: Penn-America and Non-Core Operations.
- Penn-Americatargets specific, defined groups of insureds predominantly in the excess and surplus lines, or non-admitted, small marketplace.
- The company has a solid liquidity position as of the end of 2023 with
$38.0 million in unrestricted cash and equivalents and$1.35 billion in investments, primarily comprised of highly liquid fixed income investments. - The company has no traditional debt.
GBLI currently has a market capitalization of$400 million and generated$528.1 million in total revenues in 2023.- Based on the most recent reported results as of 12/31/23, the company is selling at approximately 61.9% of book value. Using a future book value scenario analysis valuation methodology, we place a value for
GBLI at$55.00 per share.
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COMPANY OVERVIEW
Source: investors.gbli.com
During the fourth quarter of 2022, the company decided to restructure its insurance operations in an effort to strengthen its market presence and enhance its focus on
The company provides its insurance products across a full distribution network that includes wholesale general agents, wholesale brokers, and retailers. The company's Commercial Specialty products are distributed through approximately 360 wholesale general agent and wholesale broker offices. One agent provided 10.3% of Commercial Specialty's gross written premiums. No other agent or broker accounted for more than 10% of gross written premiums within the Commercial Specialty segment for the year ended
On
In 2021, the company decided to cease writing certain Property Brokerage business which was part of the Commercial Specialty segment, as well as exit certain property and catastrophe lines within the Reinsurance Operations segment. In the fourth quarter of 2022, the company also decided it will reduce writings within its Reinsurance Operations segment. Based on the decisions to exit or downsize these lines of business, the company changed the way it manages and analyzes its operating results. The chief operating decision makers decided they will be reviewing the specific results of the Exited Lines in a separate segment. The chief operating decision makers also determined that the small amount of specialty property business that remained from the Specialty Property segment would be included as a product offering in the commercial Specialty segment for purpose of reviewing results and allocating resources. Several smaller reinsurance treaties have also been reclassified from Reinsurance to commercial Specialty. The Reinsurance Operations segment writes casualty treaties as well as individual excess policies.
Accordingly, the company has three reportable segments: Commercial Specialty, Reinsurance Operations, and Exited Lines. Management believes these segments allow users of the Company's financial statements to better understand the company's performance, better assess prospects for future net cash flows, and make more informed judgments about the Company as a whole. The segment results for 2021 and 2020 have been revised to reflect these changes.
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During the 4th quarter of 2023, the company re-evaluated its segments and determined that the business should be managed through two reportable segments: Penn-America and Non-Core Operations. The Penn-America segment comprises the company's core products which include Wholesale Commercial, Programs, InsurTech, and Assumed Reinsurance. The Non-Core Operations segment contains lines of business that have been de-emphasized or are no longer being written.
SEGMENTS & BUSINESS UNITS
Penn-America
The Penn-America segment distributes specialty property and casualty insurance products in the excess and surplus lines marketplace. Penn-America targets main street Specialty Excess & Surplus Lines focusing on small businesses such as Artisan Contractors, Habitational (Landlord), General Services,
Penn-America is one of the larger providers of insurance to main street businesses and built this position by focusing on this market for over 40 years. Penn-America underwrites commercial coverages for 900 classes of casualty business and 200 classes of property business. Companies within the Insurance Operations are eligible to write on a surplus lines (non-admitted) basis and others are licensed to write on an admitted basis in all 50 U.S. states and related territories.
This provides the company with flexibility in designing products and in determining rates to meet emerging risks and discontinuities in the marketplace. Penn-America's insurance products target specific, defined groups of insureds with customized coverage to meet their needs. The primary business divisions within the Penn-America segment include:
- Wholesale Commercialdistributes property and general liability products for small commercial businesses through a select network of wholesale general agents with specific binding authority using company administered systems to rate, quote and issue policies.
- Programsdistributes property and general liability niche products through program administrators with specific binding authority. Program administrators generally use their own proprietary systems, for which the Company's rates and underwriting criteria are integrated.
- InsurTechoffers property and general liability products distributed using company administered systems, and include Collectibles, digital directto-consumer insurance coverage for owners of collections, and VacantExpress, insurance coverage for owners of properties under construction, under renovation, vacant, or rented, distributed through wholesale general agents and retail agents.
- Assumed Reinsuranceis composed of individual treaties with small-to-medium sized financially sound insurers in niche product lines that are contracted through reinsurance brokers/intermediaries. These treaties are focused on the US property and casualty market and will typically involve risk sharing by either the carrier or the producer of the business. Assumed reinsurance treaties are acquired through brokers.
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Non-Core Operations
The Non-Core Operations segment represents lines of business that have been de-emphasized or are no longer being written.
The two key activities of Non-Core Operations are managing transition service agreements related to the sales of the company's renewal rights and handling claims activity and loss reserves on de-emphasized and terminated business.
At the end of 2022, the Company ceased writing new business and non-renewed existing policies for its four brokerage divisions: Professional Liability, Excess Casualty, Environmental, and Middle Market Property. On
The manufactured home, dwelling, motorcycle, watercraft, certain homeowners products, and farm, ranch & equine business within Non-Core Operations operated primarily in the standard or admitted markets and were distributed through retail agents, wholesale general agents, and brokers. These insurance products were either underwritten via limited binding authority, specific binding authority, or by internal personnel. The Property Brokerage product within Non-Core Operations operated predominantly in the excess and surplus lines or non-admitted markets and were distributed through wholesale brokers and underwritten by the Company's personnel and selected brokers with limited binding authority. The retrocessional reinsurance treaties within Non-Core Operations were distributed through brokers and on a direct basis.
Information technology development initiatives related to business lines within Non-Core Operations have been discontinued. Additional capital has and will become available as a result of de-emphasizing and exiting non-core business. This additional capital will support future growth in the company's Penn- America segment and provide capital for business initiatives including share repurchases.
Source: GBLI Investor Presentation
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RISKS
- If actual claims payments exceed the company's reserves for losses and loss adjustment expenses, the company's financial condition and results of operations could be adversely affected. The company's ultimate success depends upon its ability to accurately assess the risks associated with the insurance and reinsurance policies that it writes. The company establishes reserves on an undiscounted basis to cover its estimated liability for the payment of all losses and loss adjustment expenses incurred with respect to premiums earned on the insurance policies that it writes. Reserves do not represent an exact calculation of liability, but reserves are estimates of what the company expects to be the ultimate cost of resolution and administration of claims under the insurance policies that it writes.
- The occurrence of natural or man-made disasters, as well as global pandemics, could result in declines in business and increases in claims that could adversely affect the company's business, financial condition, and results of operations. The company is exposed to various risks arising out of natural disasters, including earthquakes, hurricanes, fires, floods, landslides, tornadoes, typhoons, tsunamis, hailstorms, explosions, climate events, public health crises, illness, epidemics or pandemic health events. In addition, man-made disasters may occur which include acts of terrorism, military actions, cyber-terrorism, explosions, and biological, chemical or radiological events.
- A decline in ratings for any of the company's insurance or reinsurance subsidiaries could adversely affect its position in the insurance market by making it more difficult to sell its insurance products which would cause premiums and earnings to decrease. If the rating of any of the company's insurance companies is reduced from its current level of "A" (Excellent) by AM Best, the company's competitive position in the insurance industry could suffer, and it could be more difficult to market its insurance products. A downgrade could result in a significant reduction in the number of insurance contracts the company writes and in a substantial loss of business as that business could move to other competitors with higher ratings.
- The company's investment performance may suffer as a result of adverse capital market developments or other factors, which would in tuadversely affect its financial condition and results of operations. The company derives a significant portion of its income from its invested assets, therefore, the company's overall operating results depend, in part, on the performance of its investment portfolio. The company's operating results are subject to a variety of investment risks, including risks relating to general economic conditions, market volatility, interest rate fluctuations, liquidity risk and credit and default risk.
- The company competes with numerous domestic and international insurance and reinsurance companies, mutual companies, specialty insurance companies, underwriting agencies, diversified financial services companies, Lloyd's syndicates, risk retention groups, insurance buying groups, risk securitization products and alternative self-insurance mechanisms. In particular, the company competes against insurance subsidiaries of the groups in the specialty insurance market including:
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American International Group Argo Group International Holdings, Ltd. Ategrity Specialty Holdings LLC Atlantic Casualty Insurance Company Berkshire Hathaway Canopius US Insurance, Inc. CapSpecialty Insurance Group Everest Re Group, Ltd. Great American Insurance Group Hallmark Financial Services, Inc. HCC Insurance Holdings, Inc.
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- IFG Companies
James River Group Holdings Kinsale Capital Group, Inc. Markel Corporation Nationwide Insurance RLI Corporation RSUI Group Selective Insurance Group, Inc. - The
Hartford The Travelers Companies, Inc. Westchester Surplus Lines Insurance Co W.R. Berkley Corporation
In addition to the companies mentioned above, the company is facing competition from other standard line companies who are continuing to write risks that traditionally had been written by excess and surplus lines carriers,
Competition may take the form of lower prices, broader coverage, greater product flexibility, higher quality services, reputation and financial strength or higher ratings by independent rating agencies. The company differentiates itself from the competition by distributing Wholesale Commercial and InsurTech products that are not readily available in the market. Each of the company's products has its own distinct competitive environment. The company seeks to compete through innovative products, appropriate pricing, niche underwriting expertise, and quality service to policyholders, general agencies and brokers.
SUMMARY
We believe
The company is currently selling at a Price/Book value that does not reflect the future growth opportunities for the company over the next 3-5 years.
The company pays a dividend that offers an above market average dividend yield which should offer some level of stability for equity investors. The dividend yield is currently 4.81%.
Investors may be getting the rare opportunity to get in on the ground floor of a dynamic P&C insurance company that is poised for rapid growth in book value. With the company trading at such a large discount to book value, a margin of safety appears to exist at this time.
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PROJECTED INCOME STATEMENT
Income Statement |
Dec-21 |
Dec-22 |
Dec-23 |
Dec-24 |
Dec-25 |
Combined Ratio |
102.0% |
98.9% |
99.7% |
99.5% |
99.3% |
Net Written Premiums |
580,068 |
591,331 |
399,319 |
395,078 |
430,634 |
Growth |
5.8% |
1.9% |
-32.5% |
-1.1% |
9.0% |
Net Earned Premiums |
595,610 |
602,471 |
473,357 |
387,181 |
422,025 |
Growth |
4.9% |
1.2% |
-21.4% |
-18.2% |
9.0% |
Net Investment Income |
37,020 |
27,627 |
55,444 |
66,533 |
69,859 |
% |
6.2% |
4.6% |
11.7% |
17.2% |
16.6% |
Investment Gains & Other |
45,638 |
(1,564) |
(672) |
0 |
0 |
TOTAL REVENUES |
678,268 |
628,534 |
528,129 |
453,713 |
491,884 |
Growth |
16.2% |
-7.3% |
-16.0% |
-14.1% |
8.4% |
Net losses and loss adjustment expenses |
384,964 |
359,228 |
289,153 |
236,124 |
256,952 |
% of sales |
64.6% |
59.6% |
61.1% |
61.0% |
60.9% |
Acquisition costs and other underwriting expenses |
222,841 |
236,381 |
182,617 |
148,984 |
161,969 |
% of sales |
37.4% |
39.2% |
38.6% |
38.5% |
38.4% |
SG&A |
27,179 |
24,421 |
23,383 |
25,137 |
27,022 |
% of sales |
4.6% |
3.9% |
4.4% |
6.5% |
6.4% |
Amortization |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
% of sales |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
Operating Income |
43,284 |
8,504 |
32,976 |
43,469 |
45,940 |
Margin |
6.4% |
1.4% |
6.2% |
9.6% |
9.3% |
EBITDA |
88,922 |
6,940 |
32,304 |
43,469 |
45,940 |
Margin |
14.9% |
1.2% |
6.8% |
11.2% |
10.9% |
Other Expenses/(Income) |
0 |
3,529 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
% |
0.0% |
0.6% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
EBIT |
43,284 |
4,975 |
32,976 |
43,469 |
45,940 |
% |
7.3% |
0.8% |
7.0% |
11.2% |
10.9% |
Total Interest Exp (net) |
10,481 |
3,004 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
% |
1.8% |
0.5% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
Net Profit Before Tax |
32,803 |
1,971 |
32,976 |
43,469 |
45,940 |
% |
5.5% |
0.3% |
7.0% |
11.2% |
10.9% |
Income Tax |
3,449 |
2,821 |
7,547 |
9,998 |
10,566 |
% Effective Rate |
10.5% |
143.1% |
22.9% |
23.0% |
23.0% |
% Cash Tax Rate |
10.5% |
143.1% |
22.9% |
23.0% |
23.0% |
Minority Interests or Preferred Stock |
440 |
440 |
440 |
440 |
440 |
Net Profit |
28,914 |
(1,290) |
24,989 |
33,031 |
34,934 |
% |
4.9% |
-0.2% |
5.3% |
8.5% |
8.3% |
Non-recurring income (expense) |
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Average Diluted Shares Outstanding |
14,664 |
14,482 |
13,666 |
13,578 |
13,578 |
Reported FD EPS |
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Zacks Cash EPS |
2.00 |
(0.09) |
1.83 |
2.43 |
2.57 |
Zacks EPS |
2.00 |
(0.09) |
1.83 |
2.43 |
2.57 |
Source:
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Attachments
Disclaimer
Major California property insurer decides to not renew tens of thousands of policies [The Sacramento Bee]
Henderson High Income Trust plc – Monthly Factsheet as at 29 February 2024
Advisor News
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Health/Employee Benefits News
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