Trump points to easing inflation numbers, but Americans still face high prices, reduced purchasing power

High prices, reduced purchasing power and heavy debt loads confront many American households even as year-over-year government numbers show inflation easing from post-pandemic highs.

The latest Consumer Price Index for May shows year-over-year U.S. inflation rate at 2.4%. That comes after April's CPI came in at 2.3%, the lowest since February 2021.

Current inflation rates are well off the nearly double-digit price hikes in 2022 after all the fiscal and monetary infusions to keep market economies and financial markets afloat during the shutdowns and turmoil of the pandemic.

President Donald Trump has touted the easing government inflation figures, noting his tariffs have not pushed prices as warned. "Inflation is down," Trump has proclaimed.

REALITY CHECK?

But are prices and the cost of living really down?

Other economic data and views from the frontlines of the economy and household finances paint a different, more difficult picture for many American households and small businesses.

"Services remain stubborn: rent, insurance, dining, health care. Housing costs and homeowners' insurance are particularly painful — rebuilding costs and climate risk keep driving premiums up," said Robert Khachatryan, CEO at Los Angeles-based Freight Right Global Logistics.

"Energy price spikes have eased, but base living costs remain high compared to five years ago," Khachatryan said.

An April survey by MarketWatch found 57% of Americans say they are living "paycheck to paycheck" — including 72% of Gen Z and 65% of millennials.

According to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, overall U.S. prices are up 25% since the early days of the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020.

On average, a new car now costs close to $50,000; a used car costs $30,000, according to industry statistics.

Over the past five years, food prices are up 27.5%, according to U.S. Department of Agriculture data.

The average price of a new single-family home is close to $500,000, up 30% from five years ago. Existing homes had median sales prices of more than $422,000 nationally, according to the National Association of Realtors.

That's up 43%.

"Inflation is still impacting the housing market pretty significantly," said Adam Hamilton, CEO of REI Hub, a Virginia-based accounting software company specializing in the real estate industry.

Hamilton is also keeping an eye on materials costs as Trump's on-again, off-again, delayed and implemented tariffs potentially impact supply chains and spending.

"We are also starting to see prices of some housing-related materials (like various construction materials) go up," he said.

Drill down to the state and regional levels and housing costs have risen even more in places such as Florida and the Mountain West.

"Rents are heinous," said Amrita Bhasin, CEO and co-founder of Sotira, a San Francisco-based supply chain and logistics firm. "Nowhere in America is cheap."

Apartment rents are up more than 39% nationally since 2020, according to iPropertyManagement.com. Rents are north of $3,000 per month in big, coastal cities and home prices are substantially higher across much of the country.

Americans are also saddled with debt.

U.S. household debt hit a record $18.2 trillion in the first quarter of 2025, according to the New York Federal Reserve Bank.

Five years ago, Americans held $14.3 trillion in household debt. That is a $3.9 trillion increase since 2020, with prices and interest rates higher for consumers.

SHRINKFLATION

Babak Hafezi, an adjunct international business professor at American University in Washington, D.C., said food continues to be the "largest component of inflation", with the prices up 2.9% over the past year.

Hafezi said sky-high housing costs are easing some but are still substantially higher than pre-COVID levels.

There are also price jumps for services and utilities.

"Utilities have risen about 12.9% from COVID-19 levels, and with the demand in data centers in key markets, certain states will see even more inflation," Hafezi said.

Bhasin said it isn't just higher prices that are part of the post-pandemic dynamic.

"The 'shrinkflation' in food and beverages is just insane," she said.

Bhasin said food, beverage and other products, including cosmetics, have been shrinking product sizes while charging the same or higher prices. Some cost-effective products have been eliminated for pricier options, she said.

She notes TikTok and other social media videos have tracked shrinkflation, calling some of the contemporary pricing dynamics "unfettered capitalism."

"The prices have gone up and the size has gone down," she said. "You are getting less bang for your buck."

Sergio Altomare, co-founder and CEO of Hearthfire Holdings, a Pennsylvania-based real estate and private equity firm, said the financial and fiscal infusions to bolster market economies during the pandemic have left their marks.

"We flooded the markets with $5 trillion of economic stimulus," Altomare said. "Inflation went into hyperdrive."

He doesn't expect prices for products and services to retreat.

"Aggregate costs, once they go up they stay up. It's the devaluation of your buying power," he said.

The Trump administration has also touted 1.7% wage gains for blue-collar and service workers during the president's first five months back in office. The same worker gauge increased 3.2% from April to September during the Biden administration.

"Wages have risen, especially in logistics and services, but not enough to fully offset years of price increases. For many, real purchasing power is flat," Khachatryan said.

Frontline workers wage gains are paltry compared to the wealthy. From 2020 to 2024, America's billionaires saw their incomes grow by 88% ($2.58 trillion), according to the Institute for Policy Studies.

The richest 10% own 93% of the U.S. stock market, according to the Federal Reserve Bank.

NEW YORK MINUTE

The affordability crunch and income inequalities have intersected with Zohran Mamdani's surprising socialist campaign for New York City mayor.

New York is the richest city in the world, with Wall Street anchoring the capital of capitalism.

It's also a magnified version of America's affordability challenges, with the average apartment rent costing more than $4,500 per month, child care costing $3,000 per month and 25% of the city residents living below the regional poverty line, according to numbers from TOOTRIS LLC and Columbia University.

Mamdani defeated former New York governor Andrew Cuomo, a COVID lightning rod, in the Democratic primary June 24, promising free childcare and bus transit, rent freezes and low-cost, government-run grocery stores.

"I'll pay for it by taxing the rich," said Mamdani, who wants to increase corporate income taxes and impose a 2% extra tax on those making more than $1 million.

That has Wall Street and New York's high-end real estate sector rattled, with Trump calling Mamdani a "communist lunatic."

Those tax and affordability pushes could be replicated in other progressive cities, including college towns.

"This is a campaign about affordability," Mamdani told MSNBC.

The socialist upstart still has to take on New York Mayor Eric Adams in November. Mamdani faces scrutiny for his statements related to police funding, legalized prostitution and arresting Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu over the Gaza war.

CHINA FACTOR

Small business owners, supply chain firms and consumers are all watching and waiting for potential price impacts of Trump's tariffs regime.

Trump has imposed 25% tariffs on foreign cars and car parts as well as imported aluminum and steel. He also has levies on China and scores of other countries as the U.S. tries to forge new, more favorable trade deals.

Trump has stressed his tariffs, which face court challenges, haven't yet increased prices as he pushes Fed Chairman Jerome Powell to cut interest rates.

Jeremy Yamaguchi, CEO of Cabana (a California-based pool company), is keeping tabs on the tariffs' impact.

"There is definitely a possibility that the tariffs could impact us, though there haven't been any significant changes yet," he said.

That could potentially prompt price increases, Yamaguchi said.

Powell has also said the Fed is holding on rate cuts as it waits to see about the inflationary and growth impacts of Trump's tariffs.

Bhasin said elongated supply chains and a pre-tariff ordering rush could result in related price increases and inventory not being seen until September or October.

Then, already strained consumers may pull back on spending.

"I think people are going to be buying less," she said.