Trump administration report: Hampton Roads facing more flooding, economic losses and bad news

Virginian-Pilot (Norfolk, VA)

Nov. 28--VIRGINIA BEACH -- The region will face increasingly frequent flooding, steep economic losses, worse traffic and serious risks to human health because of climate change, according to a new national report.

The National Climate Assessment, which is mandated by Congress and was released by President Donald Trump's administration on Friday, projects a dire forecast for the United States, much of it backed by prior research.

But the Southeast region, which covers the area from Louisiana to Virginia, will be hit especially hard. Many of the biggest impacts come from sea level rise, which is projected to increase by 1 to 4 feet on average by the end of the century because of global warming. It has already affected low-lying areas on the coast, like vast swaths of Hampton Roads.

"High-tide flooding is projected to become more disruptive and costlier as its frequency, depth, and inland extent grow in the coming decades. Without significant adaptation measures, many coastal cities in the Southeast are expected to experience daily high-tide flooding by the end of the century," said a summary of the report. "Higher sea levels will also cause storm surge from tropical storms to travel farther inland than in the past, impacting more coastal properties and infrastructure."

The 1,000-page report details many of the challenges that the country will face in the next several decades. Though researchers say some consequences are already locked in, the severity of some effects depends on future emissions.

The economy will suffer

Climate change will end up costing the country hundreds of billions of dollars, due to property damage on the coast, labor-related losses and deaths, according to the report. Throughout the entire Southeast, agriculture could take an especially big hit.

More than half a billion hours of work could be lost by 2100.

"Climate change is expected to have an overall negative impact on agricultural productivity in the United States, although some crops could also become newly viable alternatives," the report said. "Increases in temperatures, water stress, freeze-free days, drought, and wildfire risks, together with changing conditions for invasive species and the movement of diseases, create a number of potential risks for existing agricultural systems."

Some of these impacts were felt this summer, during an exceptionally wet period in southern Virginia Beach that led to farmers being unable to harvest crops. The state's biggest city, which relies heavily on the agriculture and tourism industries to drive its economy, will face significant challenges in the coming decades because of changing climates.

Several of Hampton Roads' military bases, about 40 percent of the region's economy, could also be threatened.

And all along the coast, several key economic sectors will be hit hard. Shrimping, oyster harvesting and fishing will see price jumps and lower availability, the report says. Annual oyster harvests, for example, will decline by 20 percent in low-risk scenarios and nearly 50 percent in more extreme cases.

Waterfront property values, a significant source of tax revenue for local governments, could also plunge due to more frequent tidal flooding and intense storms. A recent analysis by The Virginian-Pilot already found that some properties were worse off from sea level rise.

Traffic delays

In Hampton Roads, traffic, already a major source of frustration, is about to be backed up more often. Heavy precipitation, flooding, heat, wildfires, and extreme events threaten transportation infrastructure throughout the country.

In just two years, Virginia could see up to an additional 125 million vehicle-delay hours on major roadways because of high-tide flooding. By 2060, that could jump to 625 million hours, in a best-case scenario for sea level rise.

"Even if a roadway is not inundated, higher groundwater tables from (sea level rise) can impact tunnels and utility corridors and weaken roadway base materials in low-lying coastal regions," the report said.

Roughly one out of three Hampton Roads residents reported that their neighborhood flooded at least a couple times a year. About half of them couldn't leave their neighborhood at least once in the last year because of high-tide flooding. Issues of access will force local governments to grapple with important legal questions and could worsen existing disparities, the report said.

Bridges and roads throughout the region could become increasingly unreliable as sea level rise accelerates.

A major health risk

Changing climate threatens not only human health but also the diverse ecosystems as the region continues to warm.

Cities face the "greatest threat" from diseases that mosquitos carry, and climate change will only worsen this, the report said. The region will see the biggest increase in West Nile, as well.

Air quality -- from emissions, allergens and wildfires -- could worsen in the region, possibly leading to more people with respiratory disease.

Because the Southeast is in a "transition zone" between tropical and temperate climates, the region has a diverse mix of ecosystems: forests with hardwood, spruce-fir, and predominantly pine as well as salt marshes.

Those systems could be "greatly modified" by shifting winter temperature extremes, wildfire patterns, sea level rise, extreme weather events and warming ocean temperatures. Fewer species will take over.

The report said: "As a result, the ecological resources that people depend on for livelihood, protection, and well-being are increasingly at risk, and future generations can expect to experience and interact with natural systems that are much different than those that we see today."

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