Sunflower crop insurance price discovery continues

As the middle of February approached, the sunflower market was watching the ongoing crop insurance price discovery process and also considering USDA's World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report that was released Feb. 9.

The crop insurance price discovery process will continue through February for 2024 crop insurance price elections, according to John Sandbakken, National Sunflower Association (NSA) executive director, commenting in the Feb. 12 NSA newsletter. He noted that at that time, oil type sunflowers were listed at $23.87, and confections were $28.87 per hundredweight.

"The prices are up 37 cents from (the previous) week," he said, adding that producers could follow sunflower price election trends by watching the 2024 Chicago Board of Trade (CBoT) December soy oil contract through Feb. 29. "Final price elections will be announced in early March."

In other market related news, Sandbakken pointed out that in its February WASDE report, USDA raised ending stock estimates for U.S. corn, soybeans, and wheat more than traders expected.

"For soybeans, the U.S. ending stocks were pegged at 315 million bushels vs. the trade's expectation of 284 million and last month's estimate of 280 million bushels," he said. "The February reports focused largely on international production this month, as domestic supply estimates were largely settled in the January report."

In the near-term, traders with the CBoT and the market in general, as well as producers, will be keeping a close watch on demand news and El Niño weather conditions in South America.

In the WASDE report, USDA trimmed Brazilian soybean production forecasts, although not as deeply as some had predicted. Brazil soybean output for 2023-24 was pegged at 156 million metric tons (MMT), which is down 1 MMT from the January outlook. Soybean production for Argentina was estimated at 50 MMT, which was unchanged from USDA's January estimate.

"Based on these figures, it is safe to continue assuming that South America will harvest another big soybean crop this year. With the release of the latest USDA production forecasts, traders will focus on the U.S. export sales pace, South American weather, yield reports and harvest progress," Sandbakken said.

Looking at local prices, as of Feb. 12, the ADM crush plant in Enderlin, N.D., listed $13.50 per hundredweight cash for delivery in both February and March. The Cargill plant in West Fargo, N.D., listed NQ (No Quote) for February and a $13 call option for March. The Cargill plant in Pingree, N.D., listed a $13 call option for February delivery and listed NQ for March.

Looking at 2024 new crop prices for NuSun sunflower, Enderlin listed a $13.50 cash price and West Fargo listed a $13.50 call option. Pingree listed NQ.

High-oleic sunflower prices at the ADM crush plant in Enderlin were listed at $13.75 per hundredweight cash for February and March delivery. The Cargill plant in West Fargo listed NQ for February and $13 for March.

The West Fargo plant did offer a $19.25 contract with an Act of God (AOG) clause and a $17.75 cash price for 2024 high-oleic new crop sunflower. ADM in Enderlin offered a $19 contract with an AOG clause for 2024 new crop high-oleic sunflower.