Storm track shifts north, near coastline as Category 4 Dorian heads for Florida

Aug. 31--The projected track for Hurricane Dorian, which is creeping toward the Bahamas and Florida as a Category 4 storm, made a dramatic jump north and an eastern push along the Atlantic coast late Friday night.

The hurricane, which strengthened to a Category 4 on Friday night, is now projected to make landfall near Titusville in Brevard County about 8 p.m. Tuesday, according to the National Hurricane Center's 5 a.m.. advisory.

Earlier Friday night forecasters had predicted Dorian would make landfall north of Fort Pierce on Tuesday afternoon.

As of Saturday morning, the hurricane remains about 305 miles east of the northwestern Bahamas and 470 miles east of West Palm Beach, according to the NHC's 5 a.m. bulletin.

Dorian has been gaining strength in recent days. On Friday night alone, the storm's sustained winds picked up to 140 mph from 125 mph just three hours earlier, according to the 11 p.m. update.

It's predicted to continue lurching toward Florida at a steady pace, maintaining much of its force until making landfall as a Category 4 and traveling almost parallel to Interstate 95 as it heads north. It will remain an "extremely powerful hurricane for the next several days," even as it experiences some decreases in wind speed.

"Although the official forecast track has been nudged northeastward to near the east coast of Florida, the risk of significant impacts over much of the Florida peninsula remains high," forecasters wrote.

Dorian may bring significant, "life-threatening" storm surge and "devastating" hurricane-force winds to Florida's east coast by early next week, forecasters said Friday night. But because it is predicted to slow down and turn north along the coast, it remains unclear where or when the impact will be felt most.

Forecasters added that high winds and rainfall were possible in portions of Florida, and that inland parts of the state may be hit with hurricane-force winds as well.

"Heavy rains, capable of life-threatening flash floods, are expected over portions of the Bahamas and coastal sections of the southeastern United States this weekend through much of next week," forecasters wrote.

Gov. Ron DeSantis said Friday that evacuation orders could begin as early as Saturday in the most vulnerable coastal areas, including Palm Beach, Martin and Brevard counties. Tropical storm watches and warnings also will likely go up this weekend as well.

DeSantis warned that Dorian could be a "multi-day storm" and said officials have distributed about a million gallons of water and plan to distribute almost two million meals from a central warehouse hub in Orlando. He also said President Donald Trump had approved his request for a federal disaster declaration for the state.

"That will enable us to draw down more federal resources in anticipation of this storm," he said in a media briefing. "The constant in this storm ... is that this thing is getting stronger."

Beyond the threat of major hurricane winds, the NHC also raised the risks of flooding rain for Florida. The storm is expected to slow down when it reaches Florida's coast, which could mean it stalls out and dumps so much rain it can be measured in feet. NHC predicted the southeast coast could see anywhere from 6 to 12 inches of rain, with some spots getting up to 18 inches.

There were not yet storm surge predictions for Florida, but the Bahamas are expected to see 10 to 15 feet of surge, "dangerous waves" and anywhere from two to four inches of rain in the central Bahamas and 10 to 15 inches in the northwestern Bahamas. Andros Island was under a hurricane watch and a hurricane warning was issued for the rest of the northwestern Bahamas.

Dorian is expected to make landfall in the Bahamas on Sunday evening and pass through by Monday evening, forecasters said.

Projections have shifted Dorian's possible landfall up and down the coast over this week, and each update has shown a later arrival time.

"The track forecast by the end of the forecast period is highly uncertain, and any small deviation in the track could bring the core of the powerful hurricane well inland over Florida, keep it near the coast, or offshore," forecasters wrote Friday.

A ridge of high pressure that's forming near Bermuda is already pushing the storm west toward Florida's coast.

Most models agree that Dorian will make a northern turn sometime Tuesday, but it's unclear yet if that turn will happen over land or over sea.

Military bases across Florida were forced to move aircraft and other military vehicles out of Dorian's path. At the Homestead Air Reserve Base, 25 F-16 aircraft were moved away, according to NBC 6. A spokesman for the air base did not respond to a request for comment Friday evening.

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