SC's census response among worst in the nation. That may mean money left on table

Apr. 19--While the nation's attention is focused on the coronavirus pandemic, paperwork that residents filled out 10 years ago will determine how quickly states will be able to recover using federal money.

The 2010 U.S. Census will guide how much money each state will get from the $150 billion coronavirus relief fund package. Those funds will aid cash-strapped state and local governments.

South Carolina will receive almost $2 billion in relief money, said Lt. Gov. Pamela Evette on an April 8 teleconference.

But, she said, between 10% and 20% of the state's population is at risk of being undercounted this year, citing figures from the South Carolina United Way.

While South Carolina's leaders can't change those 2010 population counts, Evette is thinking about future emergencies. Data released this week by the U.S. Census Bureau shows South Carolinians lagging behind residents of 40 other states in responding to the once-a-decade population count underway right now, the 2020 Census.

South Carolina isn't doing well, and residents' failure to respond could have massive consequences for the future. In Beaufort County, just over a third of households have filled out their forms. With 2020 Census operations on hold because of the coronavirus outbreak, here's where the count stands and why it matters.

Census operations paused during COVID-19 outbreak

Census forms began arriving in residents' mailboxes in mid-March. Most received simple notices asking households to respond to the census online, part of the bureau's unprecedented effort to get most residents to fill their form digitally.

Nationwide, results from the count will be used to allocate $1.5 trillion in federal funding to programs such as Medicaid and the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program.

This month, in-person census counts were supposed to be in full swing, with workers counting people in group living quarters like nursing homes. But the COVID-19 outbreak has brought many of those efforts to a halt.

The latest schedule has census workers set in August to start knocking on doors at homes that haven't responded, according to a Census Bureau planning document. "Peak operations" at bureau field offices have been pushed back three months.

On April 13, the Trump administration asked Congress to pass a law pushing back major legal deadlines for the census by four months, which could have consequences for states, depending on the new population counts to redraw legislative districts.

A Census Bureau spokesperson told NPR it likely cannot meet its current deadlines.

Beaufort County response rate lags behind S.C., national average

Since notices went out, the U.S. Census Bureau has begun publishing daily response rate numbers from across the country. The latest data divides response rates by specific census tracts. Beaufort County's average response rate sits at 37.4% as of April 15.

But that average isn't necessarily representative.

The peaks and valleys of response rates both are on Hilton Head Island.

As of April 15, the county's lowest response rate was 8.6% in Hilton Head's South Forest Beach area -- a part of the island that has proliferated with short-term rentals and beachfront hotels.

The county's highest response rate, 66.7%, was recorded in the Skull Creek and Hilton Head Plantation area of the island's north end, perhaps aided by a March 27 email blast from Hilton Head Plantation's general manager reminding residents to fill out their census forms. That census tract is also one of the areas on the island most densely populated with full-time residents.

Beaufort County also appears to fall in line with other counties which show low 2020 response rates in historically hard-to-count communities -- places that have the most at stake.

Communities designated as hard to count by the census bureau are at risk of being undercounted and therefore getting less federal money for social programs and schools.

In Beaufort County, the census bureau-defined communities that are hard to count are in the Grey's Hill/ Burton area, the north end of Hilton Head Island near the airport, and the growing area of Bluffton south of U.S. 278.

These areas are considered hard to count because households in the area have low self-response rates. This means more census enumerators knock on doors to count residents in-person, and it's more likely people in the area may be missed or counted inaccurately, according to a map of hard-to-count areas compiled from census data.

All three of those Beaufort County communities are considered to be in the bottom 20% of return rates nationwide. Their response rates in 2020 are hovering around one third.

The Grey's Hill/ Burton census tract had a 37.9% response rate as of April 15. On Hilton Head, the response rate is 27.1%. The Bluffton census tracts have reported response rates of 34.4% and 36.3%, respectively.

South Carolina ranks near bottom of country in response rate

So far, South Carolina has the dubious distinction of having the lowest census response rate in the South -- and one of the lowest in the country. According to the Census Bureau, 44.8% of households in the state have responded since the form went live on March 15.

In 2010, 64.7% of South Carolina households filled out census forms themselves.

This time, South Carolina ranks 41st out of the 50 states, Washington D.C., and Puerto Rico. The top state in the nation, Minnesota, already has a response rate of nearly 60% as of April 15.

A county-by-county look at the Palmetto State shows Dorchester County in the Lowcountry and York and Lancaster counties leading the state, with response rates over 50%. Rural Hampton and Allendale counties have the lowest response rates in the state so far.

In Allendale County, only 8.7% of households filled out census forms online, according to the data. Just 56.4% of the county has broadband internet coverage, one of the lowest rates in the state, according to Broadband Now, a company that collects and analyzes coverage data.

The Census Bureau will update self-response rate figures through the summer, and the numbers will likely rise ahead of the new response deadline of Oct. 31.

Questions about how the 2020 Census works? We broke down the process and explained why residents should respond in a February article.

BEHIND OUR REPORTING

How local reporters use the census

The impacts of the 2020 Census will go far beyond knowing how many people live where. Political representation, federal dollar allocation and healthcare programs all rely on census data.

Your local newspaper uses this data too. The decennial census and American Community Surveys are easily accessible metrics journalists use to measure demographic, income and employment data in their day-to-day reporting. It helps reporters answer important questions every day. Do arrest rates reflect the racial demographics of a community? Are predatory lenders targeting minority neighborhoods? Are local leaders meeting the needs of a changing population?

By participating, your census response can help ensure an accurate count and precise local reporting for years to come. To explore census data yourself, check out the U.S. Census Bureau's online portal.

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