Scientists sound the alarm over chronic flooding, with Hampton Roads hard-hit
According to a report released Monday, some 311,000 coastal homes in the
By the year 2100, those national numbers jump to 2.4 million homes with a market value of about
Last summer, the
This time, the
"Actions today, especially the amount of global warming emissions we release, will help determine what our coasts will look like at the end of the century,"
The
The scientists found that, by 2045,
But, by 2100, with the sea level in
The total market value of those homes today is more than
"For some communities," said report co-author
Scientists project that a quarter of the land in
Commercial properties are also in jeopardy -- 300 in the state by 2045, and about 3,000 by the year 2100. Those properties are assessed at about
For their analysis, the scientists considered three sea-level rise scenarios developed by the
The low scenario projects a global average rise of 1.6 feet over 1992 levels by the end of the century, the intermediate scenario a rise of four feet, and the high scenario a rise of 6.6 feet. Scientists used the high rate of rise for their report.
But seas don't rise uniformly. For coastal
Not surprisingly, the scientists urge a science-based response to the threat "that helps communities understand their risks, assess their choices and implement adaptation plans while prioritizing equitable outcomes."
"Short-sighted policies and market drivers will need to be phased out to discourage risky behavior," said climate resilience analyst
Scientists recommend a three-pronged policy approach, with little time to waste:
* Eliminate policies that perpetuate risky coastal development, limit building in flood-prone areas, update flood maps and building codes, safeguard natural flood protections and reform flood insurance premiums;
* Adequately fund disaster-response and pre-disaster programs that take climate projections into account, increase funding for flood-risk maps, for natural ecosystem safeguards and large-scale home buyout programs, and implement "robust" flood-risk management standards and building codes; and
* Create "bold new policies" and pioneering measures to help property owners relocate from chronically flooded areas and to preserve natural ecosystems and cultural heritage sites, plus governance models for decisionmaking in a new era of "challenging tradeoffs."
The
To read its report "Underwater: Rising Seas, Chronic Floods and the Implications for
Contact Dietrich at 757-247-7892 or [email protected]. Follow on Twitter at DP_Dietrich
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