Ready. Set. Hurricane season

May 31-- May 31--Dust off those hurricane supply totes, fill up gas cans and propane tanks, stock up on non-perishables and take a deep breath. The 2019 Atlantic hurricane season begins Saturday.

It is that time of year when all the nation's experts predict how many storms will form during the season, which runs June 1 to Nov. 30.

These prognosticators predict 2019 will be a near-normal hurricane season: 13 named storms and five hurricanes, two of which major storms.

Dennis Feltgen, National Hurricane Center spokesman, says that year after year, even a slow hurricane season can be a nightmare if your community gets hit by a storm.

Last year Hurricane Michael devastated the Florida Panhandle when it struck Mexico Beach, just east of Panama City.

Michael's strength was upgraded in recent months. It became only the fourth hurricane on record to strike the United States as a Category 5.

Michael joined the Labor Day Hurricane of 1935, Camille (1969) and Andrew (1992).

PREDICTING UNPREDICTABILITY

Scientists believe it will be a near-normal hurricane season because of a weak El Niño and cooler-than-normal tropical Atlantic Ocean water.

El Niño occurs when ocean water is warmer than normal in the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean. That creates wind shear in the Atlantic and hinders hurricane development.

LAS VEGAS BETTING LINE?

Colorado State University, one of the nation's leading hurricane predicting teams, reported the probabilities of a hurricane landfall: 48% chance for the U.S. coastline; 28% for the East Coast; and 28% for the Gulf Coast.

A WIND-DRIVEN TOP

It is impossible for scientists to predict exactly when and where a hurricane will form in the Atlantic basin.

Think of a hurricane as a spinning top. Without influences, the top will sit and spin until its momentum wanes.

A tropical system is often steered by a Bermuda-Azores High that is stationed in the Atlantic and spins clockwise.

If that Bermuda-Azores High is in the far eastern Atlantic, storms are often steered around that high toward the eastern United States. Before striking the coast, the high often steers the storms back out to sea.

If that Bermuda-Azores High is in the central Atlantic, the high steers storms directly into the eastern United States, or into the Caribbean Sea. That's unless a storm front (which has west-to-east wind ahead of it), moves south from the northern United States in time to push the hurricane of the coast.

If the Bermuda-Azores High is in the western Atlantic, hurricanes are often steered into the Gulf of Mexico and could also be influenced by approaching storm fronts.

CLIMATE CHANGE CHANGES

The Fourth National Climate Assessment, released early this year, states climate change is causing more intense hurricanes, which produce more rainfall.

"The intensity of heavy rain, including heavy rain produced by tropical cyclones, increases in a warmer world," the report says.

The report concluded heavy rainfall amounts from intense storms have increased by about 6.5 percent compared to a century ago.

ANNIVERSARY TIME

1969: Hurricane Camille was the second most intense on record when it struck Mississippi packing 175 mph winds.

1979: Hurricane David was another catastrophic storm that killed more than 2,000 people, mostly in the Dominican Republic.

1989: Hurricane Hugo plowed into South Carolina, killing 60 people along its path.

TAX FREE SHOPPING

The sales tax holiday for hurricane supplies began Friday and continues through June 6. The list includes items such as batteries, lights, radios, generators, fuel tanks and much more.

For more information and a list of qualifying items, please go to the Department of Revenue website.

Joe Callahan can be reached at [email protected]. Follow him on Twitter @JoeOcalaNews.

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