Q4 2023 Radian Group Earnings Conference Call Slides
Safe Harbor Statements
All statements in this presentation that address events, developments or results that we expect or anticipate may occur in the future are "forward-looking statements" within the meaning of Section 27A of the Securities Act of 1933, Section 21E of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934 and the
- the health of the
U.S. housing market generally and changes in economic conditions that impact the size of the insurable mortgage market, the credit performance of our insured mortgage portfolio and our business prospects, including changes resulting from inflationary pressures, the higher interest rate environment and the risk of higher unemployment rates, as well as other macroeconomic stresses and uncertainties, including potential impacts resulting from geopolitical events; - changes in the way customers, investors, ratings agencies, regulators or legislators perceive our performance, financial strength and future prospects;
- Radian Guaranty's ability to remain eligible under the PMIERs to insure loans purchased by the GSEs;
- our ability to maintain an adequate level of capital in our insurance subsidiaries to satisfy current and future regulatory requirements;
- changes in the charters or business practices of, or rules or regulations imposed by or applicable to, the GSEs or loans purchased by the GSEs, or changes in the requirements for Radian Guaranty to remain an approved insurer to the GSEs, such as changes in the PMIERs or the GSEs' interpretation and application of the PMIERs or other applicable requirements;
- the effects of the ERCF, which establishes a new regulatory capital framework for the GSEs, and which, as finalized, increases the capital requirements for the GSEs, and among other things, could impact the GSEs' operations and pricing as well as the size of the insurable mortgage market;
- changes in the current housing finance system in
the United States , including the roles of the FHA, the GSEs and private mortgage insurers in this system; - our ability to successfully execute and implement our capital plans, including our risk distribution strategy through the capital markets and traditional reinsurance markets, and to maintain sufficient holding company liquidity to meet our liquidity needs;
- our ability to successfully execute and implement our business plans and strategies, including plans and strategies that may require GSE and/or regulatory approvals and licenses, that are subject to complex compliance requirements that we may be unable to satisfy, or that may expose us to new risks, including those that could impact our capital and liquidity positions;
- risks related to the quality of third-party mortgage underwriting and mortgage servicing;
- a decrease in the Persistency Rates of our mortgage insurance on Monthly Premium Policies;
- competition in the private mortgage insurance industry generally, and more specifically: price competition in our mortgage insurance business, including the prevalence of formulaic, granular risk-based pricing methodologies that are less transparent than historical rate-card-based pricing practices; and competition from the FHA and the
VA as well as from other forms of credit enhancement, such as any potential GSE-sponsored alternatives to traditional mortgage insurance; U.S. political conditions and legislative and regulatory activity (or inactivity), including adoption of (or failure to adopt) new laws and regulations, or changes in existing laws and regulations, or the way they are interpreted or applied;- legal and regulatory claims, assertions, actions, reviews, audits, inquiries and investigations that could result in adverse judgments, settlements, fines, injunctions, restitutions or other relief that could require significant expenditures, new or increased reserves or have other effects on our business;
- the amount and timing of potential payments or adjustments associated with federal or other tax examinations;
- the possibility that we may fail to estimate accurately, especially in the event of an extended economic downtuor a period of extreme market volatility and economic uncertainty, the likelihood, magnitude and timing of losses in establishing loss reserves for our mortgage insurance business or to accurately calculate and/or project our Available Assets and Minimum Required Assets under the PMIERs, which could be impacted by, among other things, the size and mix of our IIF, future changes to the PMIERs, the level of defaults in our portfolio, the reported status of defaults in our portfolio (including whether they are subject to mortgage forbearance, a repayment plan or a loan modification trial period), the level of cash flow generated by our insurance operations and our risk distribution strategies;
- volatility in our financial results caused by changes in the fair value of our assets and liabilities, including with respect to our use of derivatives and within our investment portfolio;
- changes in GAAP or SAP rules and guidance, or their interpretation;
- risks associated with investments to grow our existing businesses, or to pursue new lines of business or new products and services, including our ability and related costs to develop, launch and implement new and innovative technologies and digital products and services, whether these products and services receive broad customer acceptance or disrupt existing customer relationships, and additional financial risks related to these investments, including required changes in our investment, financing and hedging strategies, risks associated with our increased use of financial leverage, which could expose us to liquidity risks resulting from changes in the fair values of assets, and the risk that we may fail to achieve forecasted results, which could result in lower or negative earnings contribution and/or impairment charges associated with intangible assets;
- the effectiveness and security of our information technology systems and digital products and services, including the risk that these systems, products or services fail to operate as expected or planned or expose us to cybersecurity or third-party risks, including due to malware, unauthorized access, cyberattack, ransomware or other similar events;
- our ability to attract and retain key employees;
- the amount of dividends, if any, that our insurance subsidiaries may distribute to us, which under applicable regulatory requirements is based primarily on the financial performance of our insurance subsidiaries, and therefore, may be impacted by general economic, competitive and other factors, many of which are beyond our control; and
- the ability of our operating subsidiaries to distribute amounts to us under our internal tax- and expense-sharing arrangements, which for our insurance subsidiaries are subject to regulatory review and could be terminated at the discretion of such regulators.
For more information regarding these risks and uncertainties as well as certain additional risks that we face, you should refer to "Item 1A. Risk Factors" in our Annual Report on Form 10-K for the year ended
About Us
Our mortgage insurance segment provides credit- related insurance coverage for the benefit of mortgage lending institutions and mortgage credit investors, principally through private mortgage insurance on residentialfirst-lienmortgage loans, and also offers other credit risk management solutions to our customers.
Our homegenius segment offers an array of title, real estate and real estate technology products and services to consumers, mortgage lenders, mortgage and real estate investors, GSEs, real estate brokers and agents and corporations for their employees.
Our culture is built around a set of core organizational values that we live by, and define who we are as an enterprise:
Innovate for the Future
Deliver the Brand Promise
Our People are the Difference
Create Shareholder Value
Partner to Win
Do What's Right
NYSE: RDN | www.radian.com
3
Full Year 2023 Summary Financial Metrics
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Compared to |
14.5% |
Compared to 18.2% in 2022 |
Net Income |
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|
Compared to |
Diluted Net Income Per Share |
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Retuon Average Equity
14.9%
Adjusted Net Operating Retuon Average Equity (1)
Compared to 20.3% in 2022
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Compared to |
Adjusted Diluted Net Operating |
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Income Per Share (1) |
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Compared to |
New Insurance Written |
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Compared to |
Provision for Losses |
2022 |
Book Value Per Share
15%
Book Value Per Share Growth
Compared to
Represents growth in book value per share year-over-year as compared to 3% growth year-over-year in 2022 (2)
Shares Repurchased
Dividends Paid
Purchased
- Adjusted results, including adjusted diluted net operating income (loss) per share and adjusted net operating retuon equity, as used in this presentation, are non-GAAP financial measures. For a reconciliation of the adjusted results to the comparable GAAP measures and the definitions of adjusted diluted net operating income (loss) per share and adjusted net operating retuon equity, see Appendix, Slides 25-28.
- Includes accumulated other comprehensive income (loss) ("AOCI") of
$(2.16) per share as ofDecember 31, 2023 ,$(2.91) per share as ofDecember 31, 2022 and$0.68 as ofDecember 31, 2021 .
4
Q4 2023 Summary Financial Metrics
|
Compared to |
Net Income |
|
13.4% |
Compared to 15.0% in Q3 2023 and |
Retuon Average Equity |
17.0% in Q4 2022 |
14.2% |
Compared to 16.0% in Q3 2023 and |
Adjusted Net Operating Return |
|
17.6% in Q4 2022 (1) |
|
on Average Equity (1) |
Diluted Net Income Per Share |
Compared to |
in Q4 2022 |
Available Holding Company Liquidity
Compared to
Adjusted Diluted Net Operating |
Compared to |
in Q4 2022 (1) |
|
Income Per Share (1) |
PMIERs Excess Available Assets (2)
Compared to
- Adjusted results, including adjusted diluted net operating income (loss) per share and adjusted net operating retuon equity, as used in this presentation, are non-GAAP financial measures. For a reconciliation of the adjusted results to the comparable GAAP measures and the definitions of adjusted diluted net operating income (loss) per share and adjusted net operating retuon equity, see Appendix, Slides 25-28.
- Represents Radian Guaranty's excess or "cushion" of Available Assets over its Minimum Required Assets (MRA), calculated in accordance with the PMIERs financial requirements in effect for each date shown.
5
Q4 2023 Summary Financial Metrics
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|
Compared to |
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Primary Insurance In Force |
as of |
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Compared to |
New Insurance Written |
and |
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and |
Compared to |
Total Revenues
Compared to
|
Compared to |
Net Investment Income
Compared to
Total Investments |
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of |
Provision for Losses
Compared to
Reserve for Losses and Loss Adjustment Expense
Compared to
Other Operating Expenses
Compared to
6
Financial Highlights
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(In millions, except per-share amounts) |
2023 |
2023 |
2023 |
2023 |
2022 |
Primary IIF |
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Total assets |
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Total investments |
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Loss reserves |
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Holding company debt-to-capital(1) |
24.4 % |
25.4 % |
25.3 % |
25.6 % |
26.5 % |
Stockholders' equity (2) |
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|
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Shares outstanding |
153 |
156 |
157 |
157 |
157 |
Book value per share (3) |
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Available / total holding company liquidity (4) |
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PMIERs excess available assets (or "Cushion") (5) |
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- See slide 21 for further detail on the components and calculation of the holding company debt-to-capital ratio as of
December 31, 2023 . - Includes accumulated other comprehensive income (loss) of
$(331) million ,$(521) million ,$(424) million ,$(387) million and$(457) million as ofDecember 31, 2023 ,September 30, 2023 ,June 30, 2023 ,March 31, 2023 andDecember 31, 2022 , respectively. - Book value per share includes accumulated other comprehensive income (loss) of
$(2.16) per share,$(3.35) per share,$(2.69) per share,$(2.47) per share and$(2.91) per share as ofDecember 31, 2023 ,September 30, 2023 ,June 30, 2023 ,March 31, 2023 andDecember 31, 2022 , respectively. - Total holding company liquidity includes the Company's unsecured revolving credit facility of
$275 million for all periods presented. - Radian Guaranty currently is an approved mortgage insurer under the PMIERs, and is in compliance with the PMIERs financial requirements. PMIERs Cushion represents Radian Guaranty's excess of Available Assets over its Minimum Required Assets, calculated in accordance with the PMIERs financial requirements in effect for each date shown.
7
GAAP Diluted Net Income Per Share
2022 to 2023 (1)
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$- |
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2022 Provision |
Net |
Net gains |
Net |
Decrease |
Other |
Other |
2023 |
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for losses |
premiums |
(losses) on |
investment |
in adjusted |
operating |
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earned |
investments |
income |
average |
expenses |
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and other |
common |
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financial |
shares |
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instruments |
outstanding |
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-diluted(3) |
Q3 2023 to Q4 2023 (2)
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$- |
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Q3 2023 |
Net gains |
Other |
Provision for |
Impairment of |
Other |
Q4 2023 |
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(losses) on |
operating |
losses |
goodwill |
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investments |
expenses |
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and other |
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financial |
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instruments |
- All diluted net income (loss) per share items are calculated based on 170.7 million weighted-average diluted shares outstanding for the year ended
December 31, 2022 , except for theDecember 31, 2023 diluted net income (loss) per share, which was calculated based on 160.1 million weighted-average diluted shares outstanding for the year endedDecember 31, 2023 . - All diluted net income (loss) per share items are calculated based on 160.1 million weighted-average diluted shares outstanding for the quarter ended
September 30, 2023 , except for theDecember 31, 2023 diluted net income (loss) per share, which was calculated based on 157.2 million weighted-average diluted shares outstanding for the quarter endedDecember 31, 2023 . - The impact from the decrease in adjusted diluted average common shares outstanding represents the difference between (i) diluted net income as of
December 31, 2023 divided by the weighted-average shares outstanding for the year endedDecember 31, 2023 ; and (ii) diluted net income as ofDecember 31, 2023 divided by the weighted-average shares outstanding for the year endedDecember 31, 2022 .
8
AOCI Impact to Book Value Per Share
GAAP Book Value Per Share
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Book value per share
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AOCI per share (1) |
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Q4 |
Q1 |
Q2 |
Q3 |
Q4 |
Q1 |
Q2 |
Q4 |
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Q3 |
Q4 |
Q1 |
Q2 |
Q3 |
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'20 |
'21 |
'21 |
'21 |
'21 |
'22 |
'22 |
'22 |
'22 |
'23 |
'23 |
'23 |
'23 |
Contractual Maturities of Fixed-Maturities Available for Sale
As of
Unrealized |
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gain (loss) |
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Amortized |
recorded in |
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$ in millions |
Cost |
Fair Value |
AOCI |
Due in one year or less |
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|
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Due after one year through five |
1,296 |
1,243 |
(53) |
years (2) |
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Due after five years through 10 |
928 |
851 |
(77) |
years (2) |
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Due after 10 years (2) |
865 |
708 |
(157) |
Asset-backed and mortgage- |
2,524 |
2,394 |
(130) |
backed securities (3) |
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Total (4) |
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(419) |
Tax effect |
(88) |
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Accumulated other comprehensive |
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income (loss) |
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- AOCI per share, a component of book value per share, is calculated by dividing (i) accumulated other comprehensive income (loss), by (ii) shares outstanding as of the end of each period shown. Changes in accumulated other comprehensive income (loss) are primarily from net unrealized gains or losses on investments as a result of decreases or increases, respectively, in market interest rates. We do not expect to realize these losses given that, as of
December 31, 2023 , we have the ability and intent to hold these securities until recovery. - Actual maturities may differ as a result of calls before scheduled maturity.
- Includes residential mortgage-backed securities, commercial mortgage-backed securities, collateralized loan obligations, other asset-backed securities and mortgage insurance-linked notes, which are not due at a single maturity date. The average duration for these investments is 2.8 years.
- Total amortized cost and total fair value include
$136 million and$127 million , respectively, of securities loaned to third-party borrowers under securities lending agreements.
9
Revenue and Related Drivers
10
Attachments
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