Polymarket proved regulators wrong, now they’re scrambling to catch up

On election night 2024, as traditional media awaited vote counts and pollsters scrambled to explain their errors, one platform had already called the outcome with unnerving accuracy: Polymarket. The crypto-based prediction market—prohibited for U.S. users under CFTC restrictions following a 2022 settlement—provided the most accurate real-time probabilities throughout the entire…