NOAA Predicts A Normal To Above-Normal Hurricane Season

May 24--Virginia and other Atlantic states are looking at a less ominous hurricane forecast than last year's "extremely active" season as federal forecasters predict a near-normal to above-normal season this year.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) posits a 40-percent chance that Atlantic activity will be near-normal, a 35-percent chance it will be above-normal and only a 25-percent chance it will be below-normal.

The season runs June 1 through November, and on average spawns 12 named storms, including six hurricanes -- three of them major.

This year, forecasters say there's a 70-percent likelihood of 10 to 16 named storms, including five to nine hurricanes, with one to four of them churning up into major blows.

A hurricane has sustained winds of at least 74 mph, while a major one, ranging from Categories 3, 4 and 5, has sustained winds of at least 111 mph.

Last year's tumultuous season lived up to predictions, packing 18 named storms and 10 hurricanes -- six of them major ones, including three Category 5s that drowned out Houston and rampaged through Florida, Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands. NOAA ranks it the fifth most-active season on record.

Aside from some onshore winds and coastal flooding, though, Hampton Roads largely dodged those blows.

Still, meteorologist Bill Sammler at the National Weather Service in Wakefield cautioned against getting complacent.

"The screaming message here is, forget the seasonal numbers," Sammler said in a phone call Thursday. "They tell you nothing about what the potential impacts might be -- not just to Virginia but the entire East Coast, from Brownsville (Fla.) all the way to far Down East Maine."

The year 1992 was a "shining example" of the concept, he said. That year called for a relatively mild season, but it included the notorious Hurricane Andrew, one of only three Category 5s ever to strike the U.S. mainland.

A seasonal forecast can't predict if a hurricane will ever make landfall, but NOAA's lead seasonal hurricane forecaster Gerry Bell noted in a video message Thursday that, "as we saw last year, more active seasons have an even higher threat of hurricane landfalls."

When a hurricane looms this year, federal forecasters say they have more tools to gauge its strength and to predict where it will land, with new hardware and modeling enhancements delivering "the world's best regional and global weather models."

Those tools include two new satellites, called GOES-17 and NOAA-22.

The GOES-17 Earth-observing satellite, launched in March, helps draw a more comprehensive weather picture throughout the Western Hemisphere, while the polar-orbiting NOAA-22 will gather high-resolution data from around the world to feed weather models and enhance three- to seven-day weather forecasts.

The National Weather Service also upgraded its Global Forecast System with a new dynamic core to improve the American hurricane model. And it plans to upgrade its hurricane-specific computer model to achieve greater resolution near the center of a storm and to make its "Arrival Time of Tropical Storm-Force Winds" graphic displays operational this year.

"These upgrades are key to improving hurricane track and intensity forecasts, allowing NOAA to deliver the best science and service to the nation," said Neil Jacobs, assistant secretary of commerce for environmental observation and prediction, in a written statement.

Conditions driving this year's forecast include the possibility of a weak El Nino developing and near-average sea-surface temperatures across the tropical Atlantic Ocean and Caribbean Sea, NOAA says.

El Ninos are unusually warm surface ocean temperatures in the tropical Pacific that affect global weather patterns and reduce the likelihood of hurricanes in the Atlantic.

Still, said Bell, "hurricanes strike the United States regardless of whether the season is active or weak. Now is the time to get prepared."

Start by determining your vulnerability to hurricanes, he said, such as storm surge, inland flooding and strong winds. Stock enough supplies for several days in case the power goes out.

If you live along the coast, develop a family evacuation plan and an emergency supply kit. Your kit should include such things as food and water, flashlights and batteries, medical supplies and prescriptions, hygiene products, critical documents, cash, and "comfort" items such as books, puzzles and photo albums.

Prepare your home by covering windows, trimming trees and securing loose outdoor items. Make sure you have sufficient flood insurance. Talk with your neighbors about storm preparations and evacuation plans, and write down your plan to share with friends and family.

More information on storm preparedness is available at readyvirginia.gov.

Hurricane updates are available throughout the season at hurricanes.gov.

Contact Dietrich at 757-247-7892 or [email protected]. Follow on Twitter at DP_Dietrich

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