New Risk Management Study Findings Have Been Reported by Investigators at University of Central Florida (A Bayesian multivariate hierarchical spatial…

New Risk Management Study Findings Have Been Reported by Investigators at University of Central Florida (A Bayesian multivariate hierarchical spatial joint model for predicting crash counts by crash type at intersections and segments along ...)

By a News Reporter-Staff News Editor at Insurance Weekly News -- Current study results on Risk Management have been published. According to news reporting out of Orlando, Florida, by VerticalNews editors, research stated, "The safety and operational improvements of corridors have been the focus of many studies since they carry most traffic on the road network. Estimating a crash prediction model for total crash counts identifies the crash risk factors that are associated with crash counts at a specific type of road entity."

Our news journalists obtained a quote from the research from the University of Central Florida, "However, this may not reveal useful information to detect the road problems and implement effective countermeasures. Therefore, investigating the contributing factors for crash counts by different types is of great importance. This study aims to provide a good understanding of the contributing factors to crash counts by different types at intersections and roadway segments along corridors. Data from 255 signalized intersections and 220 roadway segments along 20 corridors have been used for this study. The investigated crash types include same direction, angle and turning, opposite direction, non-motorized, single vehicle, and other multi-vehicle crashes. Two models have been estimated, which are multivariate hierarchical Poisson-lognormal (HPLN) spatial joint model and univariate HPLN spatial joint model. The significant variables include exposure measures and some geometric design variables at intersection, roadway segment, and corridor levels. The results revealed that the multivariate HPLN spatial joint model outperforms the univariate HPLN spatial joint model. Also, the correlations among crash counts of most types exist at individual road entity and between adjacent entities. Additionally, the significant explanatory variables are different across crash types, and the magnitude of the parameter estimates for the same independent variable is different across crash types."

According to the news editors, the research concluded: "The results emphasize the need for estimating crash counts by type in a multivariate form to better detect the problems and provide appropriate countermeasures."

For more information on this research see: A Bayesian multivariate hierarchical spatial joint model for predicting crash counts by crash type at intersections and segments along corridors. Accident Analysis and Prevention, 2018;119():263-273. Accident Analysis and Prevention can be contacted at: Pergamon-Elsevier Science Ltd, The Boulevard, Langford Lane, Kidlington, Oxford OX5 1GB, England. (Elsevier - www.elsevier.com; Accident Analysis and Prevention - www.journals.elsevier.com/accident-analysis-and-prevention/)

Our news journalists report that additional information may be obtained by contacting S.A. Alarifi, University of Central Florida, Dept. of Civil Environm & Construct Engn, Orlando, FL 32816, United States. Additional authors for this research include M. Abdel-Aty and J. Lee.

The direct object identifier (DOI) for that additional information is: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.aap.2018.07.026. This DOI is a link to an online electronic document that is either free or for purchase, and can be your direct source for a journal article and its citation.

Keywords for this news article include: Orlando, Florida, United States, North and Central America, Risk Management, Risk and Prevention, University of Central Florida.

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