Mostly Lake-Worthy Into Sunday, But Labor Day Weather Quickly Sours

Holiday Weather: 3 Out of 4 Days OK We're all well aware of Murphy's Law. It is after all still 2020. His little known Third Law of Meteorological Entropy states: "Storms, given a choice, PREFER to come on major holiday weekends". Prove me wrong.

If you can sneak away from your home-office-dungeon-cubicle early, 3 out of the 4 days this holiday weekend should be pretty nice. Unfortunately, Labor Day itself may leave much to be desired.

After yesterday's wild winds (blew my grill off the patio again - thank you!) winds ease today, with enough sun for mid-70s. Much of Saturday looks sunny and lake-worthy, but weather models consistently show T-storms bubbling up over far southern Minnesota Saturday night, and the metro may get nicked. Sunday may be the warmest day, enough sun for low 80s.

The first vigorous cold front of meteorological fall sparks falling temperatures on Labor Day (60s and low 70s) with rain streaking in PM hours. Have a Plan B. Ot could be worse: after approaching 100F Sunday, Denver will see snow and 30s on Wednesday.

Ouch

Photo credit: Cumulus congestus pileus 33,000 feet above Pennsylvania courtesy of Mark Anderson.

Twin Cities Holiday Weekend Meteogram. ECMWF predicts sunshine for much of today, Saturday and Sunday, and possibly a few hours Monday morning. The best chance of rain comes PM hours on Labor Day. Soak up any warmth because by the middle of next week there will be little doubt that autumn is here. Graphic credit: windy.com.

Saturday Night T-storms. Things may get noisy over roughly the southern third of Minnesota Saturday night. Models (ECMWF above) have been fairly consistent predicting convection with the approach of this (brief) hot proud out ahead of sticky, 80-degree air on Sunday. Map: WSI.

Warming Trend Into Sunday, Followed by a Fine September Slap. If you're outdoor events are today, Saturday or Sunday odds are in your favor. Sunday still looks like the warmest day with a chance of 80s central and southern Minnesota, but skies may sour quickly on Labor Day, especially PM hours. Map sequence above: Praedictix and AerisWeather.

Bursting Our Warm Weather Bubble. With steadier, stratiform rain in the forecast for the middle of next week highs in the 50s look realistic. Not sure MSP will get up to 87F Sunday (depends on how long the sun is out) but low 80s seem likely. MSP ECMWF outlook: WeatherBell. Moderately Cool Third Week of September. Temperatures over the northern tier of the USA will be cooler than average 2 weeks out, if you buy the GFS solution above. We'll see more warm fronts, more 70s and 80s into late September, but while much of the south and west sizzles Minnesotans will be reaching for sweatshirts much of the next 2 weeks. Definition of a Cold Front. I'm sure this has happened before, but I can't remember anything quite this drastic in recent years; a nearly 65 degree drop in the span of 2-3 days? ECMWF (above) for Denver is unlike anything witnessed. Oh, it may snow in Denver with early skiing for Colorado resorts. So there is that. Meteogram: WeatherBell. Praedictix Briefing: Issued Thursday, September 3rd, 2020:

Southwest Heat Concerns

Excessive Heat Warnings. Excessive heat concerns are developing into the Labor Day weekend across the Southwest, with numerous record highs expected across the region. Excessive Heat Watches and Warnings stretch this morning from northern California to southern Arizona. Highs will be in the 90s and 100s and this heat (especially this extended stretch of heat) could lead to heat related illnesses for those working outside or participating in outdoor activities. Here are when these Excessive Heat alerts are in place across portions of the region as well as expected highs into the weekend:

Phoenix and Las Vegas: Excessive Heat Warning Friday through Monday Los Angeles: Excessive Heat Warning Saturday and Sunday San Diego: Excessive Heat Warning Saturday through Monday Sacramento: Excessive Heat Watch Saturday through Tuesday

Mid-Atlantic Severe Weather

Severe Threat Today. There is an Enhanced severe risk across portions of the Mid-Atlantic – including Washington D.C. and Baltimore – as we head through Thursday. Damaging winds and a few tornadoes are the main threats across the region as storms pop up this afternoon into the evening hours.

Atlantic Tropical Update

Nana Weakening. Nana strengthened into a hurricane before landfall overnight on the Belize coast between Dangriga and Placencia. Nana continues to move inland this morning and weaken, positioned over northern Guatemala as of the 7 AM CDT update. Rapid weakening will continue today, with the system likely becoming a remnant low Friday as Nana moves west-southwest.

Omar And Tropical Waves. We are also tracking several other areas of interest in the Atlantic. Tropical Depression Omar continues to not be a concern to land, fighting stronger upper level winds northeast of Bermuda. Omar should become a remnant low today or tonight. We are also tracking three different areas back toward the central and eastern Atlantic that have varying chances of becoming tropical systems in the next five days. The system that has the greatest chance in the next five days is one off the coast of Africa that has low chances over the next two days but has a high chance as we head into early next week across the central Atlantic. We will keep an eye on these waves as we head through the next several days.

Typhoon Haishen

Tracking Haishen. Maysak made landfall early Thursday morning in South Korea with peak winds of 45 m/s (100 mph) quickly moving north. With that storm through the region, eyes turn to the next system in Typhoon Haishen. As of Thursday afternoon, Haishen was located about 745 miles east-southeast of Kadena Air Base and moving northwest at 9 mph. The system had 110 mph winds – the equivalent of a high-end Category 2 hurricane. It will continue to strengthen into the weekend, becoming a Super Typhoon at its peak with winds of 150 mph Saturday. Weakening should occur thereafter as it continues to move in a northwesterly direction, reaching the southern coast of South Korea Monday afternoon with wind speeds of 100-105 mph. This storm would bring another round of heavy rain and strong winds to the region late this weekend and early next week.

D.J. Kayser, Meteorologist, Praedictix.

Can a Bubble Net Stop a Hurricane? Some Norwegians Think So. Color me skeptical. And let's hold off on nuking hurricanes, for now. Here's a clip fro WIRED.com (paywall): "...The latest scheme--this one from Norway--proposes stretching a submerged “bubble net” across the path of an oncoming storm. To OceanTherm CEO Olav Hollingsæter, a hurricane’s swath of destruction could be slowed or even avoided using a technique that has kept Norwegian fjords ice-free since the late 1960s. Imagine a long, thin, flexible pipe stretched between two ships. The pipe is moored a few hundred feet below the surface, like an upside-down shower curtain. A massive stream of bubbles escapes from the pipe, forming a frothy white current as it rises to the surface. That might give you an idea of what the creators of this project are envisioning. (Or perhaps just think of a giant aquarium bubbler.)..."

Image credit: NASA.

National Hurricane Center's Messaging Likely Saved Lives During Hurricane Laura. I couldn't agree more with Dr. Marshall Shepherd, posting at Forbes: "...Appropriate balance in weather messaging is critical to maintaining credibility with the public. However, it is important to recognize that fatality numbers may be low because of effective warnings and outstanding predictions. I observed this same phenomenon with COVID-19 early in the pandemic. Naysayers argued that case numbers were inflated, and social distancing mandates were too harsh. They pointed to numbers in decline, but overlooked that the decline was related to the social distancing and mask wearing policies. I am sure there is some psychological concept that describes this tendency, but that is a discussion for a different day. For now, I just wanted to thank the National Hurricane Center. Even as I write this, they are still dealing with the remnants of Hurricane Laura..."

Predicting Peak Fall Foliage. This is different, a tool to predict (based on historical data) when peak color will come across the USA. Details via Mental Floss: "...Fall foliage normally peaks some time after the autumnal equinox, which falls on September 22 in 2020, but exactly when depends on variables like rainfall and temperature. Each year, the tourism website SmokyMountains.com looks at weather forecasts and historical trends from NOAA and puts together an interactive map showing when foliage is predicted to peak across the contiguous U.S..."

Map credit: smokymountains.com.

Does Warm Weather Impact Covid-19? There are no conclusive results (that I'm aware of) that indicate that hot weather reduces the odds of infection. Big Think analyzes some of the factors in play: "...One factor, according to Sciencing, that may increase your susceptibility in cold weather is how your sinuses respond to the humidity and temperature changes. Your nose is a natural air filter for your body. When you spend time in cold temperatures, your nasal passages dry out due to the constriction of blood vessels...One common reason why virus infections may become more common during cold months is that more people are spending time indoors (and together). As research has determined, social distancing can heavily impact the spread of the COVID-19 virus. Being clustered closer together indoors can increase the likelihood of transmission, giving the effect of the virus spreading faster in the colder months..."

File image: CDC.

Recently Declassified Soviet Video Shows the Largest Nuclear Explosion in History. Mental Floss has details and links: "...Now, for the first time, footage of the massive explosion is available for the public to view, Smithsonian reports. The recently declassified Russian documentary traces the timeline of the thermonuclear weapon from its design to its historic detonation. Officially named RDS-220, Tsar Bomba was built when Cold War tensions between the Soviet Union and the United States were high. The bomb was the culmination of the race to construct the biggest and most devastating nuclear weapon on Earth. Standing 7 feet tall and stretching nearly 26 feet long, Tsar Bomba was transported off the coast of Severny Island near the Arctic Ocean by a modified bomber aircraft..."

Photo credit: "The mushroom cloud from Tsar Bomba was 42 miles high, about seven times the height of Mount Everest." (Rosatom) Courtesy of Smithsonian.

Don't Try This at Home. David Blaine's "Ascension" was a worthy distraction, and possibly a better way to commute long distance (ultimate physical distancing). Check out a hot air balloon ride like no other at YouTube: "David Blaine redefines magic once again for an unprecedented live event at a time when the world could use a positive distraction. Bringing wonder, hope and untethered possibility, David tackles his most ambitious and revolutionary feat yet. This production was filmed in strict accordance with all CDC and OSHA Covid protocols and safety guidelines including testing, social distancing, use of PPE, quarantining, disinfecting and good hygiene practices."

76 F. high in the Twin Cities on Thursday.

77 F. average high on September 3.

77 F. MSP high on September 3, 2019.

September 4, 1992: Early morning storms result in 3/4 to 1 3/4 inch hail in Hennepin, Dakota, Rice and Goodhue Counties.

September 4, 1941: A batch of tornadoes hits Minneapolis, New Brighton, and White Bear Lake, killing six people.

September 4, 1925: The third consecutive day of 95 degrees or above occurs in the Minneapolis area.

FRIDAY: Partly sunny, less windy. Winds: W 10-15. High: 75 SATURDAY: Lukewarm sun, nighttime storms south. Winds: S 5-10. Wake-up: 56. High: 77 SUNDAY: Warm sunshine, best lake day? Winds: S 8-13. Wake-up: 62. High: 84 LABOR DAY: Cooler. Rain risk grows PM hours. Winds: N 10-20. Wake-up: 63. High: 73 TUESDAY: Period of steadier rain possible. Winds: N 10-20. Wake-up: 52. High: 58 WEDNESDAY: Still unsettled, more showers. Winds: NW 8-13. Wake-up: 49. High: 57 THURSDAY: Cool sunshine, feels like fall. Winds: SW 5-10. Wake-up: 45. High: 64

Climate Stories...

How Kids are Inspiring Adults to Address Climage Change. Here's an excerpt of a post at NC State News: "...As we all know, climate change is a highly politicized issue. Political ideology is consistently one of the major drivers of climate change perceptions, regardless how much people understand science. This might be because politics influences the types of information we seek and how we interpret it. In fact, one study found that the climate change risk perceptions of people who are better at science and numbers are more polarized. Kids, however, seem to behave in the opposite way. We did a study in 2012 that found that at low levels of climate change understanding, kids are just as polarized as adults. But, when they learn more about the science behind climate change, the ideology-driven polarization disappears..."

The Sitting President Has No Climate Plan. Why Isn't That Headline News? Maybe it gets lost amid the chaos, denial and campaign donations? Here's an excerpt from The Columbia Journalism Review: "THE PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES has no plan to address the climate crisis. This is not a partisan observation; it is a fact, supported by Donald Trump’s own statements and the Republican Party platform, which, as in 2016, outrightly dismisses the climate threat and ridicules efforts to mitigate it. On August 23, the eve of the Republican National Convention, the president’s team released a bulleted list of Trump’s priorities for a second term. The word “climate” did not appear once. Given the unparalleled and scientifically incontrovertible threat that climate change presents, this is shocking, though it is not a surprise..."

Oh the Places We'll (have to) Go. Quartz takes a look at climate trends and migration already well underway: "Sea level rise, sweltering temperatures, parching drought, intense wildfires, catastrophic flooding, powerful hurricanes--the effects of climate change are widespread and varied across the globe. These events, which are becoming more severe, don’t just threaten animals and plants that are rapidly going extinct. They threaten humans, too, and are expected to have devastating impacts on some of the most populous parts of the world, including places humans have called home for millennia. Climate change could trigger the largest human migration to have ever occurred. In fact, it’s already begun..."

The Consequences of Climate Change are Already Visible in Siberia. Resources Magazine takes a look at the human influence on record warming of far northern latitudes; here's an excerpt: "...What is causing these heat waves and record-breaking temperatures? According to scientists from the World Weather Attribution (WWA) project, which specializes in identifying the correlation between extreme weather events and climate change, the recent heat wave in Siberia would have been “almost impossible” without rising emissions. The report reveals that the heatwave observed from January to June this year was 600 times more likely due to anthropogenic climate change. Furthermore, record-breaking June temperatures, including that in Verkhoyansk, were also made more probable because of climate change. “Combining the values from the models and weather observations shows that for the large region, the same six-month hot spell would have been at least 2ºC cooler had it occurred in 1900 instead of 2020..."

File image: NASA.

Warming Falls. Canada hasn't run out of cold fronts, but fall chill is (consistently) being pushed later into the year, according to data and trends crunched by Climate Central: "Summer heat is invading the fall season. Of the 242 cities analyzed, 95% (230) experienced an increase in their average fall temperatures since 1970. A little more than half (120 of 230) of those cities saw an increase of over 2?. Our analysis shows that 64% (155) of 242 cities had at least seven additional days above their normal fall temperatures since 1970, with eight cities reporting more than 30 additional days. Higher cooling demands and a longer mosquito and tick season creep later into the year as climate change heats up autumn across the country. Additionally, allergy sufferers will endure an extended pollen season--a direct result of delayed cooler fall temperatures prolonging the growing season..."

Choosing a Place to Retire? Factor in Climate Change. One of many factors to consider, especially if you plan on buying a nice little beach place next to the ocean. Here's a clip from a Forbes post: "...Current climate and future climate is absolutely something that people should be thinking about when deciding where to live, where to retire,” advises Radley Horton, a climate scientist at Columbia University’s Earth Institute, who has focused on climate adaptation strategies. “Those are absolutely critical concerns when you think about impacts directly on the home, but also livability outdoors -- things like critical infrastructure, too,” says Horton. Rising seas are threatening things we tend to take for granted in many areas, like major freeways, airports and sewage treatment plants. The hazards of wildfires and extreme heat are also intensifying due to climate change. Coastal communities are particularly at risk..."

Map credit: Rolling Stone.

It's Time to Prepare Cities for People Uprooted by Climate Change. A post at Quartz caught my eye; here's an excerpt: "...Every year, millions are displaced from their homes by climate change. Some are forced out by sudden catastrophes like Hurricane Maria, which are becoming more frequent and severe. Others are driven away by the inexorable grind of stress and mounting costs brought on by slow-onset disasters: drought-driven food and water shortages, or recurrent flooding made worse by sea level rise. That climate-related displacement will eventually amount to one of the largest mass migrations in human history. A 2018 World Bank study projected that by 2050, 143 million people will be displaced within their own countries by climate impacts in sub-Saharan Africa, Latin America, and south Asia alone..."

File image above: NOAA Climate Program Office.

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