March Nor’easters Happen But They’re Rare

Go ahead and get ready for some more winter.

Forecasters say snow, starting tonight, looks increasingly certain. Six to 12 inches are likely in Lancaster County, with a small chance for as little as 3 inches or as much as 20 inches.

On Sunday afternoon, the National Weather Service upgraded its winter storm watch to a winter storm warning in effect from 8 p.m. tonight to 10 p.m. Tuesday.

"The heavy snow will make many roads impassable and may produce power outages due to the weight of the snow on tree limbs and power lines," the warning said, noting that winds of 5 to 10 miles per hour are expected, with gusts up to 20 miles per hour.

National Weather Service meteorologist David Martin said he expects snow to be heaviest overnight into Tuesday morning, with temperatures dropping into the 20s and then rising into the low 30s.

"I definitely think we'll get at least a half-foot," Martin said.

March nor'easters

"If you look at 90 years of snowfall records here, you'll see that most March nor'easters drop 6 to 12 inches of snow," Millersville University meteorologist Eric Horst said.

That happened 14 times, he said; the 15th time was the blizzard of 1993, when the Millersville area got 18 inches of snow, and counties farther north got up to 2 feet.

"It can happen, but it's very rare," Horst said.

In a forecast issued shortly after noon Sunday, he described the gathering storm as a very complex system with lots of moving parts and significant uncertainty.

"Prepare for being stranded at home for a day or two, in case we get a foot of snow with drifting," he advised. Horst noted that Lancaster got some sleet in 1993 that reduced accumulation, and he thinks that could happen this time, too.

Charlotte Katzenmoyer, Lancaster director of public works, said in an email Sunday that the city's protocol is to declare a snow emergency "when it is clear we will have 8 inches of snow or more."

At that time, "we will issue a press release instituting the snow emergency and related parking restrictions on snow emergency routes," she wrote.

Disbelief, excitement

The forecast comes just a week before the March 20 official start of spring, and it was met with mixed reactions.

"I was like, 'No, are you kidding me?' " said Quarryville resident Melissa Davis, 43.

"My flowers are all up," she said, noting that the daffodils are in full bloom. "I'm going to cut them off and bring them in the house, so I can at least enjoy them a little bit."

Willow Street resident Jacob Trimble, 12, said he's excited to go sledding and snowboarding.

But his sister Ella Trimble, 9, had a different reaction.

"I don't want snow," she said, "because then you have to make it up in the summer," she said referring to possible time off school.

Conestoga resident Julia Whitfield, 43, said she doesn't have strong feelings on the subject, but hopes whatever weather the week brings will spare the flowers and trees that bloomed early.

Lancaster resident Donna Erdman, 59, said she used to love snow, but shoveling out from more than 25 inches last January changed her mind.

"I was looking forward to doing some landscaping, planting flowers, warm-weather things," she said. "Shoveling snow wasn't the kind of outdoor work I had in mind."

But, she noted, "my daughter said the other day, 'We need one more good snow this winter.' "

State prepares

Gov. Tom Wolf issued a statement Sunday saying state agencies are preparing for the storm.

He asked residents and commercial drivers to avoid unnecessary travel tonight into Tuesday "to let road crews and emergency responders do their jobs and minimize dangerous travel."

The governor is prepared to issue an emergency declaration if agencies request it, the statement said, and travel restrictions could be put into place.

Richard D. Flinn Jr., director of the Pennsylvania Emergency Management Agency, said the Commonwealth Response Coordination Center will activate at 10 tonight.

Motorists can check conditions on more than 40,000 roadway miles by visiting 511PA.com, which also features PennDOT's Automated Vehicle Locator plow-tracking tool for all PennDOT-owned and -rented plow trucks.

Before the storm arrives, he added, people should ensure that they have emergency supplies on hand and stock up on anything they may need during "a period of adverse weather."

As of Sunday afternoon, school districts had not posted notice of how they plan to handle the expected snow.

Credit: HSTAUFFER@LNPNEWS.COM