How recessions haunted three presidents, and how two others recovered
(The Hill) – New economic data is due Thursday, and it may show negative gross domestic product (GDP) growth for the second consecutive quarter.
Two such quarters are usually seen as indicating a recession. But
Biden has every reason to avoid having the word "recession" pinned on a first term that has already been marred by elevated gas prices and the highest inflation in decades.
On Wednesday, the
Fed Chairman
Biden will be desperately hoping he's right.
Here are five presidents who tried to navigate stormy economic seas — with very different results.
The Losers
Almost a century on,
The factors leading to the Great Depression had been building before the
Hoover, a Republican, held fast to his belief that the government shouldn't meddle much in the economy — a belief that history has come to judge as one of the worst political mistakes of the 20th century.
By early 1932, the year when Hoover would seek reelection, unemployment had soared to more than 20 percent.
Come
Roosevelt would serve as president until his death in 1945, fundamentally reordering American politics.
Hoover's reputation has never recovered.
Carter intended to restore decency and humility to the
The 1979 energy crisis blew the first big hole in Carter's reelection hopes. Inflation climbed into the double digits even as economic growth fell away.
Inflation was running above 13 percent in 1979. That same year, Carter delivered what has come to be known as the "malaise" speech. The president never actually used that word, but he did diagnose
That wasn't what American voters, used to expressions of undying optimism, wanted to hear.
Historical debate still rages as to whether Carter's downfall was chiefly due to bad luck or bad policy.
Whichever is the case, he was ousted from office after just one term by
President
Foreign affairs triumphs can be fleeting — especially if they clash with a downturn at home.
That's at least one of the key lessons from the elder
Bush, who had won the
American troops speedily drove
It couldn't get much better. And it didn't.
While Bush was astride the world stage, economic growth was sputtering badly.
Unemployment duly edged up as well, from roughly 5 percent when Bush took office to more than 7 percent in 1992.
Bush's defenders emphasize that the nation had come out of recession by 1992, and the economy was in fact growing at a fairly robust rate by the time
But public perception — of tough economic times and an unresponsive president — had crystallized.
Bush lost his reelection fight to
The Winners
But early in his first term, that looked far from a sure bet.
The nation was struggling when Reagan took office. Over at the
Interest rates moved above 16 percent in 1981.
Those moves contributed to a steep recession, with the national unemployment rate moving above 10 percent in late 1982.
Yet over time, the harsh medicine began to work. The
A famous Reagan ad in his 1984 reelection campaign heralded "Morning in America." He won a second term in an enormous landslide, his Democratic opponent
The nation's first Black president took office with the nation's economy on the brink of catastrophe.
In
Progress, at least on the jobs question, proved painfully slow. The unemployment rate would not fall below 9 percent for another two years — by which point
Crucially — both for the country and for his own political fortunes — Obama reintroduced some stability into the economy.
An
Obama also supported and administered the bailout of the auto industry that had been initiated by his predecessor, President
After a daring mission to kill
In
In doing so, he became the first Democrat since Roosevelt to twice win an outright, popular-vote majority.
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