Hawaii jobless claims hint at shutdown fallout

The first batch of 381 state unemployment insurance claims filed by idled or unpaid workers offers a glimpse of the effects of the federal government shutdown on Hawaii families as food banks are already feeling the pressure.

The Pantry, based in Kalihi, held its first food giveaway specifically for people affected by the shutdown on Oct. 20 and expects more today as word spreads.

Last week's initial outreach had only 70 families affected by the shutdown sign up for customized food orders ahead of time.

But the number quickly increased to 150 families throughout the day as word spread, said Robin Bremer-­Sherley, The Pantry's programs manager.

Some of the volunteers who distributed food at The Pantry on Oct. 20 also didn't receive their federal paychecks and accepted donated food, Bremer-Sherley said.

The volunteers ranged in age from 9 to 87, she said.

The driver of the first car in line on Oct. 20 was a Department of Defense contractor.

"He held my hand and cried," Bremer-Sherley said. "The numbers will go up."

On Friday, during a typical food distribution, 700 nonfederally affected families from across Oahu showed up at The Pantry.

Some of the volunteers who came out Friday also missed - or are about to miss - their federal paychecks, but declined to be quoted.

The pressure on The Pantry and other island food banks will only increase as families missed their first federal paychecks on Friday, followed by active-duty military families who will miss their first paychecks later this week.

"If you're a federal employee who just got your last paycheck, you're uncertain when you're going to get the next one," said Carl Bonham, executive director of the University of Hawaii Economic Research Organization that forecast Hawaii's already sluggish economy will get even worse in 2026.

And that was before the prospect of a federal shutdown became reality.

"We know that the federal government spans all kinds of things in Hawaii," Bonham said.

The state Department of Labor and Industrial Relations specifically asked the latest group of people filing for unemployment insurance if they are directly affected by the shutdown.

So some of the 381 unemployment claims also could represent civilian contractors - or even state employees - whose livelihoods depend on federal contracts or programs affected by the shutdown.

But DLIR told the Honolulu Star-Advertiser that most of the new unemployment applicants are federal employees who already have missed their first paychecks.

Claims from people affected by the shutdown came from every island, except for Lanai, and included nine from Molokai, alone, according to DLIR.

The numbers of unemployment claims, Bonham said, reflect the first government data to measure the early effects of the shutdown.

"There's precious little data to back up what we know is going to be increasingly painful," he said.

In previous shutdowns, furloughed federal workers were always paid back once the government reopened. But President Donald Trump has made vague threats that some of them might not receive back pay.

Furloughed federal workers who receive state unemployment benefits but are later paid by their employer for the furlough period are required to repay those unemployment payments, according to DLIR.

An unknown number of federal employees in Hawaii and across the country are being forced to work without pay. Federal employees working without pay are not eligible for state unemployment benefits.

Some financial institutions also are allowing federal workers to delay their loan payments - as long as they're also repaid in full.

It all adds to the stress that island families who rely on the federal government already face, according to U.S. Rep. Jill Tokuda, whose district includes rural Oahu and all the neighbor islands.

She's bracing for more unemployment claims to follow at the same time that rent and mortgage payments will come due in early November.

People enrolled in the Affordable Care Act also will soon receive notices by Saturday that they will face increases in their premiums while the Trump administration plans reductions in SNAP benefits and new changes to be imposed on Medicare and Medicaid recipients.

"It's completely outrageous and cruel," Tokuda said.

Hawaii has approximately 23,000 residents who receive their health coverage through the Affordable Care Act marketplace, according to the state Department of Health.

They are scheduled to face an average 12% increase in 2026, according to the Health Department.

But if enhanced federal premium tax credits are not renewed - one of the sticking points that led to the shutdown - "many residents could see their net monthly costs roughly double, depending on income and plan type," the Health Department wrote in an email to the Star-Advertiser.

In Hawaii, according to the Health Department, approximately 300,000 residents are enrolled in Medicare - including about 54% in Medicare Advantage plans and 46% in traditional fee-for-service Medicare.

There are also roughly 420,000 residents enrolled in Medicaid or CHIP.

If the shutdown lasts another month or two, the effects on individual island families, businesses and Hawaii's overall economy mean "things start to break," UHERO's Bonham said.

"We know that a large share of people in Hawaii live paycheck to paycheck," Bonham said.

Without those federal paychecks, he said, "we know this is going to be increasingly painful and that missed check will spill over to restaurants.

And if you're going to a

food pantry, you're not going to a grocery store. It's going to ripple."

Tokuda said that the initial 381 state unemployment claims linked directly to the federal government shutdown hint at what's already happening in Hawaii - and what could follow if it continues.

"It isn't clear to a lot of folks how many Hawaii lives are at stake here," she said.

Across the rest of the country, Tokuda said, "this will be felt in blue states, red states and everywhere else. From keiki to kupuna, everyone will suffer."