FIDELITY NATIONAL FINANCIAL, INC. – 10-Q – Management's Discussion and Analysis of Financial Condition and Results of Operations
The statements contained in this Quarterly Report on Form 10-Q that are not purely historical are forward-looking statements within the meaning of Section 27A of the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, and Section 21E of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended, including statements regarding our expectations, hopes, intentions or strategies regarding the future. All forward-looking statements included in this document are based on information available to us on the date hereof, and we assume no obligation to update any such forward-looking statements. It is important to note that our actual results could vary materially from those forward-looking statements contained herein due to many factors, including, but not limited to: the potential impact of the consummation of the proposed F&G spin-off transaction on relationships, including employees, suppliers, customers and competitors; our ability to successfully realize the anticipated benefits of the proposed spin-off transaction; the ability to satisfy any necessary conditions (including any applicable regulatory approvals) to consummate the spin-off transaction within the estimated timeframe or at all; changes in general economic, business and political and COVID-19 conditions, including changes in the financial markets; weakness or adverse changes in the level of real estate activity, which may be caused by, among other things, high or increasing interest rates, a limited supply of mortgage funding, a weakU.S. economy; our potential inability to find suitable acquisition candidates, acquisitions in lines of business that will not necessarily be limited to our traditional areas of focus, or difficulties in consummating and integrating acquisitions; our dependence on distributions from our title insurance underwriters as our main source of cash flow; significant competition that our operating subsidiaries face; compliance with extensive government regulation of our operating subsidiaries; and other risks detailed in the "Statement Regarding Forward-Looking Information," "Risk Factors" and other sections of our Annual Report on Form 10-K (our "Annual Report") for the year endedDecember 31, 2021 and other filings with theSEC .
The following discussion should be read in conjunction with our Annual Report.
Overview
For a description of our business, including descriptions of segments and recent business developments, see the discussion in Note A Basis of Financial Statements in the accompanying unaudited Condensed Consolidated Financial Statements included in Item 1 of Part I of this Report, which is incorporated by reference into this Part I, Item 2.
Business Trends and Conditions
Title
Our Title segment revenue is closely related to the level of real estate
activity that includes sales, mortgage financing and mortgage refinancing.
Declines in the level of real estate activity or the average price of real
estate sales will adversely affect our title insurance revenues.
We have found that residential real estate activity is generally dependent on
the following factors:
•mortgage interest rates; •mortgage funding supply; •housing inventory and home prices; •supply and demand for commercial real estate; and •the strength ofthe United States economy, including employment levels. The most recent forecast of theMortgage Bankers Association ("MBA"), as ofJuly 18, 2022 , estimates (actual for fiscal year 2021) the size of theU.S. residential mortgage originations market as shown in the following table for 2021 - 2024 in its "Mortgage Finance Forecast" (in trillions): 2024
2023 2022 2021
Purchase transactions$ 1.8 $
1.7
Refinance transactions$ 0.7 $
0.5
Total U.S. mortgage originations forecast$ 2.5 $
2.2
As ofJuly 18, 2022 , the MBA expects residential purchase transactions to slightly increase in 2022 and beyond. Additionally the MBA expects residential refinance transactions to decrease in 2022 and 2023 before increasing in 2024. The MBA expects overall mortgage originations to decrease in 2022 and 2023 before increasing in 2024. 51 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Table of Contents During the first quarter of 2022 theFederal Reserve raised the benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points in an effort to combat inflation, the first increase since 2018. InMay 2022 andJune 2022 , theFederal Reserve further raised the benchmark interest rate by 50 and 75 basis points, respectively, in efforts to combat rising inflation. Average interest rates for a 30-year fixed rate mortgage increased to 5.3% and 4.6% for the three and six months endedJune 30, 2022 , respectively, as compared to 3.0% and 3.0% for the corresponding periods of 2021. OnJuly 27, 2022 , theFederal Reserve raised the benchmark interest rate by an additional 75 basis points. A shortage in the supply of homes for sale, increasing home prices, rising mortgage interest rates, inflation and disrupted labor markets created some volatility in the residential real estate market in 2021, which has continued into 2022. Additionally, geopolitical uncertainties associated with the war in theUkraine have created additional volatility in the global economy in 2022. Existing-home sales decreased 10% in the three months endedJune 30, 2022 as compared to the corresponding period in 2021 while median existing-home sales prices rose to$406,633 in the three months endedJune 30, 2022 , a 15 % increase over the corresponding period in 2021. Existing-home sales decreased 6% in the six months endedJune 30, 2022 as compared to the corresponding period in 2021 while median existing-home sales prices rose to$386,200 in the six months endedJune 30, 2022 , a 15 % increase over the corresponding period in 2021. Other economic indicators used to measure the health of theU.S. economy, including the unemployment rate, have remained strong. The unemployment rate was 3.6% inJune 2022 , which was near the record low of 3.5% inFebruary 2020 , as compared to 5.9% inJune 2021 . Because commercial real estate transactions tend to be generally driven by supply and demand for commercial space and occupancy rates in a particular area rather than by interest rate fluctuations, we believe that our commercial real estate title insurance business is less dependent on the industry cycles discussed above than our residential real estate title business. Commercial real estate transaction volume is also often linked to the availability of financing. Factors includingU.S. tax reform and a shift inU.S. monetary policy have had, or are expected to have, varying effects on availability of financing in theU.S. Lower corporate and individual tax rates and corporate tax-deductibility of capital expenditures have provided increased capacity and incentive for investments in commercial real estate. In 2021 and the first half of 2022, we experienced strong demand in commercial real estate markets and therefore experienced relatively high volumes and fee-per-file in our commercial business when compared to historical results. We continually monitor mortgage origination trends and believe that, based on our ability to produce industry leading operating margins through all economic cycles, we are well positioned to adjust our operations for adverse changes in real estate activity and to take advantage of increased volume when demand increases. Seasonality. Historically, real estate transactions have produced seasonal revenue fluctuations in the real estate industry. The first calendar quarter is typically the weakest quarter in terms of revenue due to the generally low volume of home sales during January and February. The second and third calendar quarters are typically the strongest quarters in terms of revenue, primarily due to a higher volume of residential transactions in the spring and summer months. The fourth quarter is typically strong due to the desire of commercial entities to complete transactions by year-end. We have noted short-term fluctuations through recent years in resale and refinance transactions as a result of changes in interest rates. Due to COVID-19 and theFederal Reserve's actions in 2020 in response to the pandemic, seasonality deviated from historical patterns in 2021.
F&G
The following factors represent some of the key trends and uncertainties that have influenced the development of our F&G segment and its historical financial performance, and we believe these key trends and uncertainties will continue to influence the business and financial performance of our F&G segment in the future. COVID-19 Pandemic While still evolving, the COVID-19 pandemic has caused significant economic and financial turmoil in theU.S. and around the world. At this time, it is still not possible to estimate the longer term-effects the COVID-19 pandemic could have on our F&G segment or our consolidated financial statements. Increased economic uncertainty and increased unemployment that could potentially result from the spread of COVID-19 variants may result in F&G policyholders seeking sources of liquidity and withdrawing at rates greater than was previously expected. Additionally, adverse events or conditions resulting from COVID-19 could also have a negative effect on its sales of new policies and could result in more volatility from the impact of mortality experience. As ofJune 30, 2022 , F&G has not seen a sustained elevated level of adverse policyholder experience from the impact of COVID-19 on the overall business. The full extent to which the COVID-19 52 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Table of Contents pandemic impacts our F&G segment's financial condition, results of operations, liquidity or prospects will depend on future developments, which cannot be predicted at this time.
Market Conditions
Market volatility has affected, and may continue to affect, our business and financial performance in varying ways. Volatility can pressure sales and reduce demand as consumers hesitate to make financial decisions. To enhance the attractiveness and profitability of our products and services, we continually monitor the behavior of our customers, as evidenced by annuitization rates and lapse rates, which vary in response to changes in market conditions. See Item 1A of Part I of our Annual Report on Form 10-K for the year endedDecember 31, 2021 for further discussion of risk factors that could affect market conditions.
Interest Rate Environment
Some of our F&G products include guaranteed minimum crediting rates, most notably our fixed rate annuities. As ofJune 30, 2022 , our reserves, net of reinsurance, and average crediting rate on our fixed rate annuities were$5.0 billion and 3%, respectively. We are required to pay the guaranteed minimum crediting rates even if earnings on our investment portfolio decline, which would negatively impact earnings. In addition, we expect more policyholders to hold policies with comparatively high guaranteed rates for a longer period in a low interest rate environment. Conversely, a rise in average yield on our investment portfolio would increase earnings if the average interest rate we pay on our products does not rise correspondingly. Similarly, we expect that policyholders would be less likely to hold policies with existing guarantees as interest rates rise and the relative value of other new business offerings are increased, which would negatively impact our earnings and cash flows.
See Item 7A of Part II of our Annual Report on Form 10-K for the year ended
Aging of the
We believe that the aging of theU.S. population will increase the demand for our fixed indexed annuities ("FIA") and indexed universal life ("IUL") products. As the "baby boomer" generation prepares for retirement, we believe that demand for retirement savings, growth, and income products will grow. Over 10,000 people will turn 65 each day inthe United States over the next 15 years, and according to theU.S. Census Bureau , the proportion of theU.S. population over the age of 65 is expected to grow from 17% in 2021 to 21% in 2035. The impact of this growth may be offset to some extent by asset outflows as an increasing percentage of the population begins withdrawing assets to convert their savings into income.
Industry Factors and Trends Affecting Our Results of Operations
We operate in the sector of the insurance industry that focuses on the needs of middle-income Americans. The underserved middle-income market represents a major growth opportunity for us. As a tool for addressing the unmet need for retirement planning, we believe that many middle-income Americans have grown to appreciate the financial certainty that we believe annuities such as our FIA products afford. Accordingly, the FIA market grew from nearly$12 billion of sales in 2002 to$66 billion of sales in 2021. Additionally, this market demand has positively impacted the IUL market as it has expanded from$100 million of annual premiums in 2002 to$2 billion of annual premiums in 2021.
See Item 7 of Part II of our Annual Report on Form 10-K for the year ended
affecting our Results of Operations.
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