EUR/USD Weekly Forecast: Symmetrical Triangle Nears Confluence – 11 August 2024

Bullish view

-- Buy the EUR/USD pair and set a take-profit at 1.1035.
-- Add a stop-loss at 1.0800.
-- Timeline: 1-5 days.
Bearish view

-- Set a sell-stop at 1.0900 and a take-profit at 1.0800.
-- Add a stop-loss at 1.1015.

The EUR/USD exchange rate was stuck in a consolidation phase last week as there was no important macro data from the United States and Europe. It was trading at 1.0915 on Friday as traders waited for the upcoming US inflation and retail sales data.

The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) will publish its report Consumer Price Index (CPI) report on Wednesday. Economists expect the data to show that the headline CPI rose from 0.1% in June to 0.2% on a month-on-month in July and remained at 3.0% on an annual basis.

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The core CPI is seen coming in at 0.2% and 3.2%. A sign that inflation is softening will raise the probability of the Federal Reserve starting its rate cuts in the September meeting. What is unclear is whether the Fed will opt for a small 0.25% cut or a jumbo 0.50% cut.

The US will also publish the retail sales numbers on Friday. These are important numbers that measure the health of the consumer.

Meanwhile, in Europe, several key countries like France and the Netherlands will release their July inflation data while the Eurostat will publish the second estimate of the bloc’s GDP data on Wednesday.

European data will unlikely change the European Central Bank’s (ECB) view on the economy. In its last monetary policy meeting, the officials pointed to more cuts if inflation continued retreating.

EUR/USD weekly technical analysis

The EUR/USD exchange rate has moved sideways for a while as traders eyed the actions of the Federal Reserve and the ECB.

On the weekly chart, the pair is stuck at the 50% Fibonacci Retracement point, which connects the lowest point in 2022 and the highest level in January 2022. At the same time, it has formed a symmetrical triangle pattern that is nearing its level of confluence.

The pair has moved slightly above the 50-week and 25-week moving average while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) has risen slightly above the neutral point of 50 and is pointing upwards. Also, the MACD is hovering at its neutral point.

Therefore, the most likely scenario is where the EUR/USD pair remains at this consolidation phase this week. Alternatively, with the US inflation and retail sales data coming up, there is a likelihood that it will have a bullish or bearish breakout since the triangle is nearing its confluence point.

A bullish breakout will be confirmed if the pair moves above 1.100, the upper side of the triangle pattern. A drop below the 50-week moving average at 1.0850 will point to more downside.

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Original Source DailyForex.com provides daily fundamental and technical analysis and signals for those looking to trade based on trends in the currency markets.