EUR/USD Forecast: Falls Below 50-Day EMA – 29 January 2025

-- During the trading session on Tuesday, we saw the euro dropped rather significantly. In fact, we are below the 50 Day EMA, the course is a major technical indicator.
-- At this point, the euro is trying to reach the 1.04 level underneath, which of course is a minor level of “market memory” that could come into the picture.

The next 2 days

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The next few days will be crucial for this EUR/USD pair, because we have the Federal Reserve releasing an interest rate decision and statement during the trading session on Wednesday, and then there is a press conference. On Thursday, the European Central Bank of course comes into the picture with its interest rate decision, expected to be a cut of 25 basis points. It won’t necessarily be the interest rate decision; it will be more along the lines of a situation where people will be paying close attention to the interest rate statement and of course the press conference. People will start to look at whether or not the Europeans think that they can stabilize rates, or if they will have to continue to cut.

The size of the candlestick is fairly negative, but if we were to break down below the 1.04 level, then I think it opens up a move down to the 1.03 level. Rallies at this point in time will continue to see resistance near the 1.05 handle, which is an area that’s been important for some time. I believe that the euro is more likely than not going to continue to suffer at the hands of the US dollar, because the European Union is struggling for any signs of real growth, while the United States is essentially on fire as far as the economy is concerned. Interest rate differential will continue to favor the downside, and I think that continues to be the case going forward. I have no interest in buying this pair until we break above the 1.06 level.

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