EUR/USD Analysis: Euro Gains Face a Crucial Test – 26 August 2024

-- At the end of last week, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said it was time to cut the US benchmark interest rate, confirming expectations that officials would begin cutting borrowing costs next month and outlining his intention to prevent further slowing in the Labor market.
-- As a result, the EUR/USD currency pair rose to the resistance level of 1.1200, the highest for the currency pair in more than a year.
-- The pair closed near its gains.

Jerome Powell added on Friday at the Federal Reserve's annual symposium in Jackson Hole, Wyoming: "The time has come to adjust policy." He acknowledged recent progress on inflation and the "clear" slowdown in the Labor market. Overall, Wall Street had eagerly awaited Powell's speech, hoping for clarity on the Federal Reserve's stance on inflation and US interest rates. Furthermore, positive reactions in the stock market indicate that investors interpreted Powell's statements as a move towards a more accommodative monetary policy.

Some Fed officials have suggested that a half-point rate cut could become more likely if the next jobs report, due out on September 6, shows further signs of a slowdown in hiring. In his latest policy decision, Powell said that if U.S. inflation continues to decline, a rate cut “could be on the table” at the Fed’s next meeting in September.

On the other hand, another weak set of German data had undermined the euro's gains, although the overall data for the eurozone was more positive. According to the results of the economic diary... Germany's manufacturing purchasing managers' index weakened further to a 5-month low of 42.1 from 43.2 the previous month and below consensus forecasts. The services sector was in expansion but failed to meet expectations and also recorded a five-month low. Dr. Cyrus de la Rubia, chief economist at Commerzbank, commented: "These numbers are a real mess." Added, "The recession in Germany's manufacturing sector deepened in August, with no recovery in sight. In fact, new orders fell sharply compared to the previous month, indicating more trouble ahead."

He added, "Expected interest rate cuts by the European Central Bank, which most analysts expect, may lift sentiment a bit, but the overall mood remains poor."

At the same time, the purchasing managers' index for the eurozone services sector was more encouraging with stronger growth at 53.3 from 51.9 previously and above the consensus forecast of 51.7. For the eurozone, producer prices rose at their fastest pace in four months, which will cause some concern within the European Central Bank.

Regarding the outlook for the foreign exchange market, ING Bank expects the euro to regain strength against the pound sterling; "but we are still confident that a recovery will occur, and there are two potential factors that could happen today (wage data released by the European Central Bank) and (Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey's speech at Jackson Hole)."

Mitsubishi UFJ Bank still expects the European Central Bank to cut interest rates in September, which would limit the euro's support; "Given what has happened since then, the mixed economic data, market disruptions, and the strengthening of the euro, a rate cut is justified."

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EUR/USD Technical analysis and forecast:

Based on the daily chart, EUR/USD is on an upward trajectory and may hold onto gains until markets and investors react to the release of Eurozone inflation figures and the US Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation reading later this week. Given that its recent gains have pushed technical indicators towards strong overbought levels, if US inflation is stronger than expected, the EUR/USD could be subject to strong profit-taking. Ultimately, the break of the current uptrend would require a move below the 1.0975 support level.

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