Economic storm clouds looming?

Slowing growth, weakening dollar could trigger mild 'stagflation'

THE RETIRED INVESTOR

The U.S. economy continues to grow, fueled by generous fiscal spending in an election year, robust corporate earnings, and a consumer willing to keep spending. The Federal Reserve Bank's loosening of monetary policy last month also promises to boost growth. That dovetails with my expectations, at least in the short term. I expect economic growth will continue to show decent numbers when the third quarter GDP data is released. At the same time, we should see additional modest progress in reducing inflation. September's CPI inflation data, however, could mark the low for this inflation cycle, in my opinion.

That is certainly not the consensus view. Wall Street is expecting the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates two more times this year and several more cuts next year. Chairman Jerome Powell attempted to rein in some of those expectations last week in a speech before the National Association for Business Economics.

He promised that the central bank would do whatever it takes to keep the economy in solid shape. However, he warned that markets should not automatically expect interest rate cuts at every Federal Open Market Committee meeting.

He said the committee will remain data-dependent and warned listeners that "this is not a committee that wants to cut rates quickly." My advice is to listen to the Fed. The risk I see is that we could see a bump in inflation beginning in the fourth quarter (probably December). I believe the Fed worries about that as well. They know that reducing interest rates is a risk, given the growth in the economy and the still-healthy wage level.

I have not mentioned the inflationary impact of the present stimulus efforts in China on materials and other commodities, the geopolitical risk of higher energy prices, nor the possibility of a long strike by union workers at the nation's ports on prices. The Fed, I believe, could be stuck between a rock (stubborn inflation) and a hard place (avoiding further declines in employment).

At the same time, as I wrote in "My economic outlook for 2025" column last week "I fear we could see declining economic growth - the result of the cumulative impact of the last two years of abnormally high interest rates. This lag effect will outweigh the Fed's interest rate cuts of September and maybe November. I am not predicting a recession, but only a slowdown, a "recalibration" to use the words of Fed Chair Powell.

The plot thickens if you include the dollar and our national debt. A few weeks back I wrote a column "How the U.S. can manage its debt load," in which I worried that at some point soon it would become necessary to do something about our rising debt load. Historically, the solution to that problem has always been to devalue the dollar. But we would pay the price for that action.

A weakening currency is inflationary. The dollar has already dropped 5 percent in as many months and currency traders expect this decline has only begun. It is, in my opinion, just a matter of time (possibly after the November elections), before the world and investors catch on that a devaluation of the dollar is a real possibility.

If I am right, a combination of a declining currency, slowing growth, stubborn inflation, and the onset of easing monetary policy, would spark worries among economists and investors alike over the "S" word - stagflation. Stagflation is an economic situation where increasing inflation, rising unemployment and slower economic growth occur simultaneously. But just imagine how the market would react if inflation indicators like the CPI and PPI see upticks toward the end of the year, while jobs continue to fall.

It is not certain, and I know it is not conventional wisdom but that is what concerns me. And no, I am not expecting a 1970s type of stagflation, but something much more mild.

I am not alone in my fears. Jamie Dimon, the CEO of JP Morgan, is a man I respect and have followed for decades. He has been sounding the alarm over bullish economic expectations and remains highly critical of the Fed's restrictive policies, which he feels went on for far too long. As for the taming of inflation, as recently as last Friday, he said "I am a little more skeptical than other people. I give it lower odds."

So do I. As such, I looked at what areas do better in such an environment. Assets considered dollar equivalents like gold and silver and other precious metals do well. Some other commodities like copper outperform, as well as emerging markets and Bitcoin.

In the equity arena, utilities, technology, energy, industrials, and consumer discretionary are standouts while financials, telecom, and consumer staples don't do nearly as well.

Investment styles such as secular growth, momentum, mid-cap stocks, low beta, and quality outperform, while small caps, dividend plays, value, and defensives underperform. Some fixed-income areas like municipal bonds, long-dated bonds, and TIPS shine, but stay away from categories like preferred, convertible bonds, high-yield credit, and leveraged loans.

Predicting what the economy and inflation will do every year is difficult at best. Trying to call a change as early as December is not for the faint of heart. Right now, Wall Street is so focused on expectations of a steady stream of expected rate cuts and the outcome of the presidential elections that what happens in December seems a long, long way.

How long will the economy remain in such a mild state of stagflation? Unless the demands of populism are somehow resolved quickly, the future economic environment might indicate more of the same.

Bill Schmick is registered as an investment adviser representative of Onota Partners Inc. in the Berkshires. He can be reached at 413-347-2401, or email him at [email protected].