DALLAS FED ENERGY SURVEY: UPDATE RELEASED IN RESPONSE TO RECENT GLOBAL OIL MARKET DEVELOPMENTS

The following information was released by the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas:

In response to recent developments in the global oil market, the Dallas Fed surveyed energy executives and issued an update to the first quarter Dallas Fed Energy Survey. Respondents were asked to answer a set of six questions and were also able to provide comments.

Key takeaways:

Executives were asked when they expect traffic through the Strait of Hormuz to return to normal levels. The most selected response was by August 2026, chosen by 39 percent of executives. Twenty-six percent of respondents expect normalization by November 2026, while 20 percent anticipate an earlier recovery, by May 2026. Fourteen percent of executives expect traffic to return to normal levels later than November 2026.

Most executives believe future disruptions to the Strait of Hormuz are likely. Forty-eight percent of respondents believe it is "very likely" that geopolitical events will disrupt traffic again within the next five years, while 38 percent view it as "somewhat likely." Only 14 percent of executives consider future disruptions "unlikely."

Executives were also asked what share of shut-in production in the Persian Gulf they expect will return eventually. Thirty-two percent of executives selected 100%, and another 32 percent selected More than 90% but less than 100%. Twenty percent expect More than 80% but not more than 90%. The remaining 15 percent of executives expect 80% or less.

Seventy percent of respondents expect U.S. oil production to increase in 2026 in response to the Iran war. The most selected response, chosen by 43 percent of respondents, was a modest increase of more than 0 but not more than 0.25 mb/d. Seventeen percent selected More than 0.25 but not more than 0.50 mb/d, and 10 percent selected higher amounts than that. The remaining 30 percent chose no change.

More than three-quarters of executives expect U.S. oil production to increase in 2027 in response to the Iran war. The most selected response was more than 0.25 but not more than 0.50 mb/d, selected by 32 percent of respondents, followed by more than 0 but not more than 0.25 mb/d, which was chosen by 26 percent. Roughly 18 percent expect U.S. production in 2027 to grow by an amount larger than 0.50 mb/d in response to the Iran war. The remaining 24 percent selected no change.

59 percent of executives expect employment at their firms to remain the same from December 2025 to December 2026. The next most selected response was increase slightly, chosen by 28 percent of executives. Four percent chose increase significantly, while 6 percent selected decrease slightly and 2 percent chose decrease significantly.

Most executives expect shipping costs from the Persian Gulf to increase after the military conflict ends. The most selected response in dollars per barrel was "more than $2 but not more than $4" (36 percent of respondents).

The survey samples oil and gas companies headquartered in the Eleventh Federal Reserve District, which includes Texas, southern New Mexico and northern Louisiana. Many have national and global operations.

Data were collected April 1520, 2026, and 120 energy firms responded. Of the respondents, 78 were exploration and production firms, and 42 were oilfield services firms.