COVID conundrum: Traffic and car crashes are down in NC, but fatal crashes are not

RALEIGH -- Highway traffic during the coronavirus pandemic is down 40% to 50% in North Carolina, according to the state Department of Transportation, so it's not surprising that there are fewer car crashes.

Raleigh police, for example, have answered nearly half as many vehicle accident calls since late March as they did last year. Nationwide, insurance companies have refunded millions in premiums because they're paying less in auto accident claims.

All of which makes the steady pace of fatal crashes in North Carolina more puzzling. Through May 8, there had been 408 fatal vehicle crashes statewide, down less than 2% compared to last year, according to the Division of Motor Vehicles. The number of people killed in those crashes -- 443 -- is only one fewer than last year.

"People have been under quarantine, so it's logical to expect to see more of a decline than we're seeing," says Mark Ezzell, director of the Governor's Highway Traffic Safety Program. "It's just odd that it's not the case."

The DMV's data shows fatal crashes were down more than 5% through early March, suggesting that they've actually increased a bit since Gov. Roy Cooper's stay-at-home order went into effect March 30.

The DMV classifies crashes using more than a dozen circumstances and contributing factors. It shows, for example, that fatal crashes involving alcohol are down more than 30% for the year, and those involving drivers age 65 and older are down nearly 16%. Pedestrian fatalities are down 9%, to 68, while fatal crashes involving cyclists have doubled, to eight statewide.

One theory about the increase in highway fatalities during the pandemic is that the relatively clear highways are enticing people to drive faster and more recklessly. State officials in Minnesota cite speeding as the main reason behind an uptick in fatal crashes in their state, according to The Wall Street Journal.

Indeed, while the State Highway Patrol has issued fewer citations overall, the number of drivers charged with going in excess of 25 mph over the speed limit is up 13%, to 12,538 through May 4, said spokesman Sgt. Christopher Knox.

But so far this year, the number of fatal crashes in which speeding was a factor is down 4.7%, according to the DMV.

Fatal truck crashes are up this year

One category of fatal crashes that is up significantly is those involving "heavy trucks," including tractor-trailers. There have been 32 so far this year, up 45.5%, resulting in 40 deaths, which is 60% more than last year. The DMV data does not indicate who is at fault in these crashes.

Knox said the Highway Patrol's motor carrier enforcement officers have seen an 11% decline in crashes involving large trucks, but an 18% increase in fatal truck crashes. Knox also noted that the number of trucks crossing the state's weigh stations is up 41% so far this year, "which would undoubtedly be a factor."

"That number would show a significant increase in commercial motor vehicle traffic on our roadways this year compared to last year during the same time frame," Knox wrote in an email.

The trends in traffic deaths during the COVID-19 pandemic vary from state to state. While some states report steady or higher fatalities in the face of falling traffic, others, notably California, have seen a decline in deaths even as the number of drivers cited for going 100 mph or more has climbed.

The DMV's crash data are considered preliminary, and Ezzell with the Governor's Highway Traffic Safety Program said he expects the true causes for the stubbornly high fatal crash numbers will only become clear in hindsight.

Ezzell said one possible explanation may not show up in the data. Crashes involving distracted driving remain basically unchanged, but those tend to involve cellphones and other physical distractions. Ezzell thinks drivers may be more emotionally distracted, by concerns over their jobs and families.

"Those things can capture your attention when you are behind the wheel and distract you from the cognitive attention needed to power a 2,000-pound guided missile down the highway," he said.

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