CDC Director Robert Redfield Expects Virus Deaths To Drop Next Week

The director of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention said Thursday that he believes the death rate of the coronavirus in the United States should start to drop next week.

In an interview with the Journal of the American Medical Association, Robert Redfield said mitigation steps such as face coverings, social distancing and prohibiting large gatherings should result in positive signs as the country continues to battle the virus.

“We are beginning to turn the tide on what I call the southern outbreak in the nation,” Redfield said. “I think I’ve seen pretty strong data that the mitigation steps that we advocated - something as simple as a facemask, social distancing, washing your hands, closing bars and having limited indoor dining at restaurants - ...you really see we can get control of this pandemic.”

With more than 5.5 million cases and 174,000 deaths in the U.S., the totals are the highest globally, according to Johns Hopkins University.

Redfield said he hopes the fall will bring positive test rates at around 3% nationally, which would show the country has a handle on the virus. Redfield optimistically pointed to New York, which had a positive test rate at one point of 42%, which now sits at 1%.

“I don’t think New Yorkers are any more adherent to the mitigation strategies,” Redfield said.

New cases across the country have dropped considerably since late July, when the country averaged well over 60,000 per day.

Over the past week, there have been an average of 46,020 cases per day, a decrease of 17 percent from the average two weeks earlier, according to the New York Times. Redfield, however, said he wants the country to dip below 10,000 cases per day.

Deaths averaged more than 1,000 per day in early and mid August, more than double the average from early July. Redfield said he hoped to see that number drop below 250 per day.

Redfield used Arizona as an example. He said cases and deaths rose for about two weeks after the governor implemented mitigation measures. Four weeks after the measures were implemented, the coronavirus totals dropped to the numbers when mitigation started.

“Some people can say, see nothing works,” Redfield said. “But they stayed with it and now you’ve seen the progressive drop and Arizona is really moving in the right direction.”

Redfield said the lag between mitigation implementation and numbers dropping is about four weeks.

As President Donald Trump begins to endorse wearing a mask and states across the country being requiring face coverings, the nationwide numbers should reflect those changes soon, even while cases keep rising presently.

“We’re going to start seeing a decline in mortality across the country next week as we continue to get control of these cases,” Redfield said.

Redfield, though, warned that while cases in hot spot areas and cities are dropping, more rural areas experiencing positive test rates of 5% to 10% aren’t seeing decreases.

Redifield emphasized the importance of all communities to practice wearing face coverings, social distancing and avoiding large gatherings.

“We don’t need to have a third wave in the heartlands,” Redfield said. “We need to prevent that particularly as we’re coming in the fall.”

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