At Outlook lunch, modest predictions of growth meet headwinds from DC

SPRINGFIELD — The U.S. economy likely will grow modestly in the coming year, with a balanced labor market and the possibility of lower interest rates — and only if inflation retreats to the Federal Reserve’s target 2% rate.

And that’s also if there aren’t any unforeseen shocks from sharply higher oil prices, more tariffs or other disruptions.

That was, in a nutshell, the message from Susan M. Collins, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Boston.

Collins is one of the regional presidents on the Fed’s Open Markets Committee, which determines interest rates. She was the headliner Friday, as more than 600 business and political leaders from around Western Massachusetts convened for the annual Springfield Regional Chamber of Commerce Outlook 2026 lunch.

For many of the attendees, it falls to them to deal with all the pullback of federal funding, the price shock associated with military action in Iran and the impact of Trump tariffs.

Earlier Friday, the U.S. Department of Labor reported that American employers unexpectedly cut 92,000 jobs in February. The unemployment rate blipped up to 4.4%.

“I’m not surprised. I mean, the tariffs have had a very harmful impact on international commerce,” U.S. Rep. Richard E. Neal, D-Springfield, told reporters at the event.

He’s helped lead the opposition on tariffs in Congress. He cited a Federal Reserve report that showed the average U.S. household is paying $1,700 more because of those tariffs.

“And now we proceed to the stage of what are known as ‘the refunds.’ And I hope that once these refunds are honored, then the businesses will pass those refunds on to the consumer,” Neal said.

Gov. Maura Healey was blunt in her remarks from the podium.

“The federal administration is making life hell on all of us,” she said.

That includes taking money from the states: $4 billion out of the Massachusetts state budget and $3 billion from science and research funding for colleges and universities across the state.

Running for reelection in the fall, Healey talked up her achievements in housing, like allowing more accessory apartments by right, and quickening the pace of construction of new schools, as well as free community college and early enrollment of high schoolers.

And like all Democrats running this cycle, she talked about affordability.

“That’s why I’m focused on driving down housing costs by building 100,000 homes, driving down energy costs by cutting people’s gas and electric bills, opposing the utilities on rate hikes and bringing more energy in, and getting charges off of people’s bills.”

In Washington, Neal said the failure this week of a congressional block to the military action in Iran might leave President Donald Trump feeling like he has carte blanche.

He was troubled that sometimes the White House is talking about regime change, and sometimes by the dissonance within the administration.

“I went to the briefing this week, and it struck me as though the secretary of defense and the president were saying different things at different times,” Neal said.

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