Arch MI’s HaMMR Predicts the Housing Slowdown Will Lead to a Soft Landing for Prices
Nationally, Annual Home Price Growth Is Not Expected to Turn Negative — Even as GDP Growth Slows and Unemployment Rises
GREENSBORO, N.C.--(BUSINESS WIRE)--
Home-price appreciation isn’t expected to experience a sustained decline on a national basis over the next year, even though there’s a strong chance the overall economy could enter a recession, according to the new edition of The Housing and Mortgage Market Review (HaMMR) released today by Arch Mortgage Insurance Company (Arch MI), a leading provider of mortgage insurance.
HaMMR also examines the impact of declining affordability and focuses on the similarities — and differences — between the surging mortgage costs facing current homebuyers and the home-price run-ups of the 1980s and the mid-2000s.
“Key factors bolstering our belief in a soft landing for national home prices are the still-tight inventory of homes for sale and the long-term fundamental shortage of homes,” said HaMMR author Parker Ross, Arch Global Mortgage Group’s Senior Vice President and Chief Economist. “Despite the slowdown in home sales activity, the market for existing homes has yet to recover to typical pre-pandemic inventory levels as the pace of new listings has slowed as well. We also estimate the U.S. was short 4 million homes as of 2020 due to over a decade of underbuilding. A persistently supply-constrained market is not a precursor to widespread or sustained price declines.”
The Housing and Mortgage Market Review is posted at archmi.com/hammr. In the current issue, Arch MI’s economic team gauges the strength of the housing market and compares current economic measures to periods of recession in recent history.
Parker Ross will host a Housing Update Webinar on Tuesday, Sept. 27, at 1 p.m. ET, covering the main HaMMR points and offering his perspective on the direction of the U.S. housing market. Registration is available at archmi.com/hammr.
About Arch Mortgage Insurance Company
Arch Capital Group Ltd.’s U.S. mortgage insurance operation, Arch MI, is a leading provider of private insurance covering mortgage credit risk. Headquartered in Greensboro, North Carolina, Arch MI's mission is to protect lenders against credit risk, while extending the possibility of responsible homeownership to qualified borrowers. Arch MI’s flagship mortgage insurer, Arch Mortgage Insurance Company, is licensed to write mortgage insurance in all 50 states, the District of Columbia and Puerto Rico. For more information, visit archmi.com.
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Source: Arch Mortgage Insurance Company
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