Another progressive Democrat is exploring a Senate bid. What does it mean for McGrath?

Lexington Herald-Leader (KY)

Nov. 22--FRANKFORT -- In March, State Rep. Charles Booker once again rose to speak against the latest anti-abortion bill to get a vote in the Kentucky House of Representatives. Booker and other Democrats had spent much of the legislative session criticizing language Republicans were using to talk about abortion, specifically their decisions to invoke lynching when talking about the issue.

At the end of a speech that railed against those who support restricting abortion rights and expanding gun rights, the Louisville Democrat ended with a plea.

"My life matters too, Speaker. My life matters too, Speaker," Booker said as his microphone was cut off. "My life matters too. My life matter too."

The speech, and the fact that he was told to sit down by a Republican lawmaker as his microphone cut out, became a symbol of the 35-year-old black man's attempt to assert himself in a political world long dominated by white men. Now, it has served as a launching pad for Booker to dip his toe into a campaign for U.S. Senate in 2020.

"I think it's welcome." said Jonathan Miller, a former Democratic Party Chairman, of Booker's potential entry into the race. "I think Kentucky Democrats have done a really poor job of promoting or encouraging candidates of color to run for office."

There's a difference, however, between welcoming a candidate into a primary and believing that candidate has a chance to win. Before Booker would even get the chance to challenge U.S. Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell, the don of the Republican Party in Kentucky, he would have to get through former Marine Corps pilot Amy McGrath, who has already raised more than $10.7 million in her bid for the Democratic nomination.

"I think Amy's got too big of a head start and I don't know how you can compete against that as a Democrat," said former Gov. Paul Patton, a Democrat from Pikeville.

Booker said he was not concerned about McGrath's money.

"Dollars don't vote, people do," Booker said. "So many Kentuckians feel ignored, feel dismissed. You don't change that by throwing money at it, you change it by doing the work."

While money does not always indicate support -- much of McGrath's money has come from out-of-state -- it does provide candidates with the ability to promote their name and their message. Name recognition is one of the largest challenges for Booker, who is in his first term in the House of Representatives.

When asked if anyone in his area knew who Charles Booker was, Patton had a one-word answer: "No."

Booker has done little outside of his home city of Louisville. He traveled to Harlan this summer to speak with miners during a protest against the bankrupt Blackjewel LLC, but Booker has otherwise stayed in Louisville during the early phase of his potential campaign.

He said he plans to hold a listening tour throughout the state because he wants his candidacy decision to be "made by the commonwealth." Booker has until January 10th to officially declare his candidacy.

Matt Erwin, who worked on Adam Edelen's Democratic gubernatorial campaign earlier this year, said Booker has to hurry up and start building a coalition of progressive voters if he hopes to overcome McGrath's many advantages.

"If you're going to build something that competes, he needs to start now," Erwin said. "It takes a lot of time and effort to build a coalition, even one that agrees with your views."

Booker's views may not be tenable throughout Kentucky. After forming an exploratory committee earlier this month with the Federal Election Commission, he began by talking about his desire for Congress to pass Medicare for All and the Green New Deal, and to impeach President Donald Trump -- literally the stuff Republicans use to rile up their base and make scary-sounding ads about Democratic politicians in Kentucky.

So far, the progressive wing of the Kentucky Democratic Party hasn't had much success outside of Louisville and Lexington.

"There aren't enough (progressives). Period," Erwin said.

The Edelen campaign went out of its way to court progressive voters in the Democratic primary for governor and was largely successful, but Edelen still only got 28 percent of the vote.

Booker also would have to compete for progressive voters with Mike Broihier, a Lincoln County farmer, who has spent the last four months courting Democrats who are dissatisfied with McGrath's campaign. Broihier has tried to gain traction by coming out strong on gun control and health care (Broihier says he's for universal health care and is flexible on how the country gets there), but has struggled to attract attention.

Broihier said he likes Booker and he is happy to have another progressive in the race.

"Running up the middle of the road as Republican-lite is not going to beat Mitch McConnell," Broihier said.

McGrath has been trying to court Trump voters who don't like U.S. Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell -- a difficult needle to thread in a conservative state -- alienating some Democrats who hate Trump and are hoping for a candidate who runs as a pure liberal.

Having two self-described progressives in the race as McGrath attempts to distance herself from "the most progressive" label she was tagged with in her unsuccessful 2018 race for Congress could drive the primary to the left and create complications for her campaign.

"I think he's going to bring up issues that wouldn't be brought up in the primary," Tres Watson, a Republican consultant, said of Booker. "And if she's going to make it through, that's going to involve talking about his issues a little bit."

Even if McGrath isn't forced to take more liberal stances, Booker's presence could force her to address issues she would otherwise like to ignore. For example, when Booker came out in favor of impeachment after a federal hearing Wednesday, McGrath took to Twitter to comment on the day's hearings.

"The public testimony this week has demonstrated why I believed an inquiry was necessary and we need to continue to let all the facts come to light," McGrath wrote.

She did not mention impeachment or Trump in her tweet.

Erwin said the presence of candidates who are aggressively courting progressive voters isn't enough to substantially change how McGrath runs her race. In order to really impact the race, Erwin said, Booker would have to prove he is competitive outside Louisville.

"He's got to show the ability to build something," Erwin said. "The presence of the candidate doesn't drive people to the left or right, it's the strength of the coalition they are able to build."

State Senator Reggie Thomas, D-Lexington, experienced that problem when he challenged McGrath and former Lexington Mayor Jim Gray in a primary for the Sixth Congressional District in 2018. Thomas courted the progressive wing of the party, but only got 7 percent of the vote.

"I'm proud of my progressive stances, but am I going to say I took Jim or Amy to the left? I don't know that I took Amy to the left at all," Thomas said.

Booker said he's not focused on whether his campaign influences the potential issues discussed in the Democratic primary.

"My focus with exploring this is not really about bringing it to the left than it is about earnestly inspiring Kentuckians to create bold change," Booker said.

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