CoreLogic® Releases Fourth Quarter 2011 Multifamily Applicant Risk Index
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The MAR Index for fourth quarter 2011 is based exclusively on applicant traffic credit quality scores from the CoreLogic SafeRent statistical lease screening model (Registry ScorePLUS®) and is updated quarterly to provide property owners and managers with a benchmark against which to compare their portfolio's performance. With this unique applicant risk index, property managers and owners are able to compare their applicant credit quality trends with that of the average MAR Index trends. This comparison indicates whether their portfolio is performing above, below or at market levels with respect to attracting and securing applicants with higher credit quality and an increased likelihood of fulfilling their lease obligations.
When compared to fourth quarter of 2010, the MAR Index increased three points in overall national renter credit quality, indicating a slightly better applicant pool. When comparing applicants for one- versus two-bedroom units, the MAR Index is slightly higher for one-bedroom units at 101, compared with 100 for two-bedroom units in the fourth quarter (see Graph 1). The fourth quarter 2011 national MAR Index, which includes studios, one-, two-, three- and four-bedroom units (BR), was 101. This is a three point decrease in overall national renter credit quality from the third quarter value of 104, largely reflecting seasonal fluctuation typical of lower applicant traffic periods of first and fourth quarters.
Regionally, the South and Midwest had the lowest MAR Index with values of 97. The Northeast continues to have the highest MAR Index with a value of 110 (see Table 1).
|
Table 1: Regional Multifamily Applicant Risk Index Data |
|||||
|
Region |
Q4 2011 |
Q3 2011 |
Change from Q3 2011 to Q4 2011 |
Q4 2010 |
Change from Q4 2010 to Q4 2011 |
|
Midwest |
97 |
101 |
-4 |
95 |
2 |
|
Northeast |
110 |
114 |
-4 |
108 |
2 |
|
South |
97 |
99 |
-2 |
94 |
3 |
|
West |
107 |
108 |
-1 |
106 |
1 |
|
U.S. |
101 |
104 </td> |
-3 |
98 |
3 |
From a Metropolitan Statistical Area (MSA) perspective, the three MSAs with the leading decreases in the MAR Index were
|
Table 2: Metropolitan Statistical Area & Multifamily Applicant Risk Index Deltas |
|||
|
MSAs With Leading Decreases |
Q4 2011 |
Q4 2010 |
Change from Q4 2010 |
|
to Q4 2011 |
|||
|
|
92 |
95 |
-3 |
|
|
99 |
100 |
-1 |
|
|
94 |
95 |
-1 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
MSAs With Leading Increases |
Q4 2011 |
Q4 2010 |
Change from Q4 2010 |
|
to Q4 2011 |
|||
|
|
129 |
124 |
5 |
|
|
92 |
87 |
5 |
|
|
95 |
90 |
5 |
|
NOTE: MSAs are selected from the Top 50 MSAs based on population and applicant volume. |
|
||
Understanding the Multifamily Applicant Risk Index (MAR Index)
The MAR Index is published quarterly by CoreLogic SafeRent. It provides trends of national and regional traffic credit quality scores whereby a lower index value indicates an applicant pool with a higher risk of not fulfilling lease obligations. A MAR Index value of 100 indicates that market conditions are equal to the national mean for the index's base period of 2004. A MAR Index value greater than 100 indicates market conditions with reduced average risk of default relative to the index's base period mean. A value less than 100 indicates market conditions with increased average risk of default relative to the index's base period mean. The MAR Index is derived from the statistical screening model from CoreLogic SafeRent, which is the multifamily industry's only screening model that is both empirically derived and statistically validated. The statistical screening model was developed from historical resident lease performance data to specifically evaluate the potential risk of a resident's future lease performance. The model generates scores for each applicant indicating the relative risk of the applicant not fulfilling lease obligations. A lower score indicates a more risky applicant.
CoreLogic SafeRent provides the nation's leading and most innovative suite of screening and risk management services designed for the multifamily housing industry. CoreLogic SafeRent offers a single source for resident screening services, renters insurance programs, analytics and automated lease and document generation. Landlords and property management companies who manage over 6 million apartment homes, rely on CoreLogic SafeRent every day to assist them in screening residents to meet their community standards and maximize profitability. CoreLogic SafeRent leads the industry in innovations and enhancements designed to make the decision process faster, easier and more accurate. To receive the MAR Index data for your Metropolitan Statistical Area or if you have questions, contact CoreLogic SafeRent at [email protected].
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