2024 Annual Stress Test Disclosure
Corporation
2024 Dodd-Frank Act
Stress Test Disclosure
Supervisory Severely Adverse Scenario
Overview of the 2024 Stress Test
The
The 2024 Federal Reserve Stress Test applied to 32 bank holding companies (BHCs) and
Under the Dodd-Frank Act, State Street and other banking organizations participating in the 2024 Federal Reserve Stress Test are also required to conduct their own stress tests under the same hypothetical scenarios used by the
2
Required Scenarios
As required under the "Supervisory and Company-Run Stress Test Requirements for Covered Companies" Final Rule, and as applied by State Street, a stress test represents a process to assess the potential impact of scenarios (representing hypothetical economic conditions) on State Street's consolidated financial position and consolidated results of operations and regulatory capital over a defined period (known as a "planning horizon"), taking into account State Street's financial condition (as of
For the 2024 Federal Reserve Stress Test, State Street was required to execute company-run tests, incorporating hypothetical stress impacts to estimates of its revenues, expenses, trading and counterparty losses, and provisions for credit losses, and the resultant changes in regulatory capital and related capital ratios, over the nine-quarter planning horizon starting on
The 2024 Federal Reserve Stress Test supervisory severely adverse scenario, as prescribed by the
- A peak
U.S. unemployment rate of 10%; - A
U.S. Real GDP contraction of 8.5%; - A decline in10-year
Treasury yields to about 0.8% followed by a gradual recovery to around 1.3%; - Anequity market decline of 55%;
- From aninternational standpoint, the scenario features recessions in the Euro area,
U.K. ,Japan , and developingAsia economies - TheGlobal Market Shock factors used for the Counterparty Default Scenario is characterized by a sudden dislocation to financial markets stemming from expectations of reduced global economic activity and heightened inflation. The expected fall in economic activity leads to equity price declines across global markets, while public equity volatility rises from heightened market uncertainty. Private equity values experience sizable declines as well, in response to a weak economic outlook. Increases in interest rates and commodity prices signal risks for persistent inflation. Short-term
Treasury rates rise sharply, while longer-term rates increase to a lesser extent. TheU.S. dollar weakens against advanced economy currencies as the market reacts to heightened expectations for a severe recession inthe United States . An increase in anticipated defaults leads to a significant widening in credit spreads.
This scenario, along with the supervisory baseline scenario, is set forth and described in the document titled "2024 Stress Test Scenarios" published on the
3
Assumptions Regarding Capital Actions
All assumptions and results presented in this disclosure document reflect the capital actions prescribed by Section 165 of the Dodd-Frank Act (Dodd-Frank Act prescribed capital actions) as amended by the
- For each of the quarters of the planning horizon:
-
- no common stock dividends are reflected in the pro forma estimates;
- scheduled payments on any other instrument that is eligible for inclusion in the numerator of a regulatory capital ratio are included;
- no common stock repurchases and redemptions of any capital instrument are included;
- no issuances of common stock or preferred stock are reflected in the pro forma estimates; and
- projection of post-stress capital ratios does not include capital actions or other changes in the balance sheet associated with any business plan changes.
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Pro Forma Projections (1/3)
The tables on this slide and succeeding slides 6 and 7 summarize pro forma estimated results under the supervisory severely adverse scenario with Dodd-Frank Act prescribed capital actions. The stress projections resulted in a decline in most regulatory capital ratios which utilized
- standardized risk-weighted assets (RWA) or Leverage Assets; however, State Street exceeded all Basel III minimum regulatory capital ratio requirements throughout the nine-quarter planning horizon. Changes in regulatory capital were primarily driven by the stressed declines in revenue relative to baseline expectations, counterparty losses, and legal and operational losses.
Actual 4Q23 and projected stressed capital ratios (1Q24 - 1Q26) 3
Regulatory |
Actual |
Stressed Capital Ratios |
||||
Minimums1 |
4Q23 |
Ending |
Minimum2 |
|||
Common Equity Tier 1 (CET1) Capital Ratio |
4.5% |
11.6% |
12.7% |
10.0% |
||
Tier 1 Capital Ratio |
6.0% |
13.4% |
14.7% |
11.6% |
||
Total Capital Ratio |
8.0% |
15.2% |
16.7% |
13.2% |
||
Tier 1 Leverage Ratio |
4.0% |
5.5% |
5.8% |
4.6% |
||
Supplementary Leverage Ratio |
3.0% |
6.2% |
7.3% |
6.4% |
||
Actual 4Q23 |
Projected 1Q26 |
|||||
RWA (billions of dollars) |
111.7 |
98.0 |
- Regulatory minimum ratio requirements as prescribed by the
Federal Reserve - Represents the projected minimum quarter-end ratio at any point during the nine-quarter planning horizon of the supervisory severely adverse scenario
- All actual and projected capital ratios and RWA data presented above are as-of the relevant quarter-end
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Pro Forma Projections (2/3)
Projected 9-quarter cumulative losses, revenue, and net income before taxes (1Q24 - 1Q26)
Billions of dollars1 |
Percent of avg. assets2 |
|
Pre-Provision Net Revenue (PPNR) |
1.8 |
0.6% |
Other Revenue |
0.0 |
|
Less |
||
Provision for Credit Losses |
(0.7) |
|
Realized Gains/(Losses) on Securities |
(0.0) |
|
Trading and Counterparty Losses2 |
(1.1) |
|
Other Gains/(Losses) |
(0.7) |
|
Equals |
||
Net Income Before Taxes |
(0.8) |
(0.3%) |
- Assets are averaged over the nine-quarter planning horizon. Due to rounding, the sum of the projections may not equal the total presented
- A 10% recovery rate was applied, consistent with the
Federal Reserve's disclosed methodology
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Pro Forma Projections (3/3)
Projected 9-quarter cumulative loan losses, by loan type (1Q24 - 1Q26)
Billions of dollars1 |
Portfolio Loss Rate2 |
|
Loan Losses |
0.4 |
1.2% |
First Lien Mortgages, Domestic |
- |
- |
Junior Liens and HELOCs, Domestic |
- |
- |
Commercial and Industrial |
0.3 |
9.9% |
|
0.0 |
0.6% |
Credit Cards |
- |
- |
Other Consumer |
- |
- |
Other Loans |
0.1 |
0.3% |
- Due to rounding, the sum of the projected loan losses by asset type may not equal the total presented
- Percentage of average balance of the identified type of loans represented by projected aggregate loan losses. Loan balances are averaged over the nine-quarter planning horizon
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Supervisory Severely Adverse Scenario with Dodd-Frank Capital Actions (1Q24 - 1Q26)
Common Equity Tier 1 (CET1) Ratio
11.6% |
1.2% |
0.5% |
1.6% |
12.7% |
|||||||||||||
(0.8%) |
(1.4%) |
||||||||||||||||
2024 |
|||||||||||||||||
Stress Test Regulatory |
|||||||||||||||||
Minimum (4.5%) |
|||||||||||||||||
Actual |
PPNR (incl. |
Trading and |
Available for Sale Mark to |
Other Capital 2 |
RWA |
2024 DFAST |
|||||||||||
(4Q23) |
Operational |
Counterparty |
Market (AFS MTM)1 |
(1Q26) |
|||||||||||||
Losses)1 |
Losses1 |
||||||||||||||||
Tier 1 Leverage Ratio |
|||||||||||||||||
0.5% |
0.2% |
0.4% |
5.8% |
||||||||||||||
5.5% |
|||||||||||||||||
(0.3%) |
(0.6%) |
||||||||||||||||
2024 |
|||||||||||||||||
Stress Test Regulatory |
|||||||||||||||||
Minimum (4.0%) |
|||||||||||||||||
Actual |
PPNR (incl. |
Trading and |
Available for Sale Mark to |
Other Capital 2 |
Leverage Exposure |
2024 DFAST |
|||||||||||
(4Q23) |
Operational |
Counterparty |
Market (AFS MTM)1 |
(1Q26) |
|||||||||||||
Losses)1 |
Losses1 |
||||||||||||||||
Note: Numbers may not sum due to rounding
- Items presented above reflected net of tax, as applicable
- Other capital includes other losses in the Consolidated Statement of Income, Foreign Exchange (FX) translation in Accumulated Other Comprehensive Income (AOCI), Disallowed DTA,
Goodwill & Intangibles deductions and net capital distributions. For net capital distribution assumptions, please refer to "Assumptions Regarding Capital Actions" on page 4 for details
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Stress Testing Framework - Risks and Methodologies (1/2)
- State Street has a robust company-wide stress testing program that executes supervisory stress tests, with the program overseen by management and the Risk Committee of its Board of Directors
- The stress testing program is structured around State Street's material risk inventory, which is established through the firm's quarterly Material Risk Identification process. Material risks are grouped into top risk categories which serve as an organizing principle for much of State Street's risk management and reporting framework
- In connection with the focus on these risks, State Street's internally-developed stress tests incorporate idiosyncratic loss events tailored to its unique risk profile. Due to the nature of State Street's business model and consolidated statement of condition, these key risks may differ from those of a traditional commercial bank
- In the normal course of its global business activities, State Street is exposed to a variety of risks; some intrinsic to the financial services industry, and others which are more specific to its business activities
- State Street's top risks as identified through its Material Risk Identification process include the following:
-
- Credit and Counterparty Risk;
- Liquidity Risk, Funding and Management;
- Operational Risk;
- Technology and Operational Resiliency Risk;
- Market Risk associated with Trading Activities;
- Market Risk associated with non-Trading Activities (which State Street refers to as asset and liability management and which consists primarily of interest rate and mark-to-market risk);
- Strategic Risk;
- Model Risk; and
- Reputational, Fiduciary and Business Conduct Risk
- Many of these risks, as well as some of the factors underlying each of these risks that could affect our businesses and our consolidated financial statements, are discussed in detail under Item 1A, "Risk Factors" and "Risk Management" within Item 7 of the "Management Discussion and Analysis of Financial Condition and Results of Operations," included in our Annual Report on Form 10-K for the year ended
December 31, 2023 on file with theSEC (2023 Form 10-K), as those disclosures may from time-to-time be updated in subsequent filings with theSEC .
9
Stress Testing Framework - General Description of Methodologies (1/4)
The table below and on the subsequent pages provides a general description of the methodologies used in the supervisory severely adverse scenario, including those employed to estimate losses, revenues, provision for credit losses, and other components of our capital projections.
Capital Component
General Description of Methodologies
Pre-Provision Net
Revenue
PPNR is calculated as net interest income (NII) plus non-interest revenue minus non-interest expense. The following is a description of the methodologies used to calculate the components of PPNR under the supervisory severely adverse scenario:
- State Street's NII is primarily sensitive to, but not limited to, changes in the balance sheet due to economic conditions or business actions, movements in interest rates and foreign exchange rates, and changes in spreads earned on interest-earning assets or paid on interest-bearing liabilities. In addition, State Street leveraged a combination of subject matter expertise and quantitative approaches using key economic variables, assets under custody and forward interest rates to forecast the balance sheet outlook
- State Street also stressed non-interest revenue, which includes servicing, management, securities finance, foreign exchange trading services, software, processing and other fee revenue. In most cases, macroeconomic factors (e.g., equities, fixed income, GDP, currencies, volatility) identified in the scenario were linked to asset and activity levels through regression-based analysis. In cases where fee revenue lacked sensitivity to the macroeconomic factors, State Street used empirical analysis in conjunction with qualitative assessments to determine the impact of stress. Non-interest revenue also reflected reduced revenue due to client attrition associated with operational and other idiosyncratic events
- State Street's PPNR projections of non-interest expense incorporated a reduction to compensation and employee benefits, transaction processing, and professional services expense due to the impact of lower activity levels and/or lower performance. Partially-offsetting these reductions, State Street projected incremental costs related to hypothetical severance and operational risk events such as increased litigation expenses
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Attachments
Disclaimer
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