USD/MXN Forecast: Dollar Pulls Back Against the Mexican Peso – 25 September 2024

-- The US dollar pulling back a bit against the Mexican peso, perhaps reaching toward the 50 Day EMA underneath, which of course will offer quite a bit of support.
-- Furthermore, it is sitting on top of the psychologically and structurally important 19 MXN level, which would grab a lot of attention if we were to drop down to that area.

All things being equal, this is a market that I think if you see a little bit of a pullback, there should be plenty of buyers due to the fact that there are economic concerns around the world when it comes to global growth and of course emerging markets. While the Federal Reserve has cut interest rates by 50 basis points, the reality is that there are plenty of reasons to think that there could be a demand for US dollars going forward, especially if we continue to see a lot of concerns when it comes to the US economy itself. I know it’s a bit ironic, but the reality is that if the US economy slows down, and we have seen Consumer Confidence numbers come in lower than anticipated during the trading session on Tuesday, the reality is likely to see that Wall Street will have to come into the picture and look at this as a sign that the US economy is in fact slowing down.

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This pair moves backwards

When you look at the overall flows of money in the USD/MXN currency pair, it does tend to move backward from what you would initially think. The United States is the initial stop for most Mexican goods, and Mexico is the number one exporter to the United States now. Furthermore, there are a lot of Mexican nationals that work in the United States and send remittances back into Mexico to help families and loved ones. Because of this, the Mexican peso tends to do better when the US economy does better and vice versa. The reason being is that if the US economy does in fact stagnate a bit, it’s very difficult for Mexican exporters to thrive, and of course Mexican nationals will quite often go home. Because of this, it is a bit counterintuitive, but this is the way the pair has behaved over the last several decades.

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