USD/JPY Forecast: Rallies Against Yen as Fed Decision Looms – 15 September 2025

-- The US dollar rallied a bit against the Japanese yen in the early hours of trading on Friday, as we are threatening the 200 Day EMA.
-- By doing so, it looks as if the market is trying to sort itself out and determine whether or not it can break to the top of the range that we have been in.
-- That range, defined as ¥146.50 on the bottom in ¥149 on top, has held quite nicely for several weeks now. It’s also worth noting that the 200 Day EMA is sitting in a very flat angle, suggesting that we just don’t have anywhere to be.

Federal Reserve

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The Federal Reserve has an interest rate decision on Thursday of next week, and it’s very likely that we will continue to see a fine line to walk, as although they are expected to cut interest rates on Thursday, the reality is that people will be watching the statement and the press conference very closely, because it could potentially give us a bit of a “heads up” as to where we are going over the next several months. The interest rate differential between the United States and Japan still remain very large, but if they start to shrink bed, then traders may try to reprice the entire situation. Ultimately, this is a market that has been stuck in a range, and it might take the Federal Reserve to finally break it out of that range.

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Ultimately, I am in favor the US dollar at the moment due to the interest rate swap, and I think a lot of people will continue to simply cash in the swap return at the end of every day, and that might be part of what has been keep in the market somewhat lifted. As long as that’s the case, I continue to buy on dips, and wait to see whether or not we can break out and above the ¥149 level.

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