USD/CAD Forecast: US Dollar Rallies Against Canadian Dollar – 18 July 2024

-- I can see that the USD/CAD pair looks like it is ready to continue rallying, as the US dollar is likely to continue to attract a lot of attention.
-- After all, we got stronger than anticipated industrial production numbers early in the day, as well as housing starts. In other words, the United States has not gotten the memo that the world is slowing down.

If that is in fact going to be the case, we will see the US dollar continue to dominate the Canadian dollar as the Federal Reserve is very tight with its monetary policy, and quite frankly may not be able to loosen monetary policy as much as Wall Street had started to convince itself. In just the last few days, I’ve heard that we are going to have 2 interest-rate cuts between now and the end of the year, but the data does not support this. Because of this, I think a lot of people that had gotten far too ahead of themselves are now covering their US dollar shorts, and you see it in pairs like this one.

Technical Analysis

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The USD/CAD market initially dipped during the trading session, to fall below the 50-Day EMA. However, the market has turned around to show signs of life and it looks like we are going to break above the shooting star from the previous session on Tuesday. If we do in fact break above the top of that Tuesday candlestick, it opens up the possibility of a move to the 1.38 level. Keep in mind this pair is not as heavily influenced by the crude oil markets as it once was, because quite frankly the Americans produce a massive amount of crude oil themselves, so Canadian oil tends to flow toward Asia, not the United States, although obviously a portion of Canadian exports to end up in the United States sooner or later.

At this point, I think you are a buyer of dips, but not necessarily in huge positions. The market has the 1.36 level underneath is a massive support level, as well as a massive resistance barrier at the 1.38 level above.

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