USD/CAD Forecast: Greenback Sees Support as Core PCE Awaits – 28 June 2024

-- The US dollar has retreated slightly against the Canadian dollar during trading on Thursday, as we are waiting for the crucial Court PCE numbers coming out on Friday.
-- Ultimately, this is a very important and influential indication as to what the monetary policy in the Federal Reserve is going to be going forward.
-- After all, it’s their favorite inflation gauge, as it gives you an idea as to what the average American could be facing.

With that being said, we have recently seen quite a bit of noise in the US/CAD forecast, which is typical, as the 2 economies are so heavily intertwined. I believe at this point in time it is probably going to be a situation where traders are looking for some type of value, so I welcome any selling of the greenback that happens as a potential opportunity. With that being said, it’s worth noting that we are dancing around the 50-Day Exponential Moving Average, which of course is a technical indicator that in and of itself will attract a certain amount of attention.

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Support Below

I believe that the support below is especially stringent near the 1.36 level, so I think at this point you have to look at this prism of perhaps trying to take advantage of what has already proven itself to be significant support previously. With that being the case, I like the idea of taking advantage of “value”, as it is an area that has been defended quite vehemently multiple times in the past and therefore, I believe it will continue to be an area that is what you are paying close attention to. With that, any bounce from that area will almost certainly attract quite a bit of attention.

If we do break to the upside, I’d be very interested in the 1.38 level, as it has offered a significant amount of resistance in the past, so one would have to assume that it will continue to do so in the future, unless of course we get a very inflationary reading on Thursday coming out of the United States, which could have traders betting on tighter monetary policy for longer.

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