UNUM GROUP – 10-Q – MANAGEMENT'S DISCUSSION AND ANALYSIS OF FINANCIAL CONDITION AND RESULTS OF OPERATIONS
Executive Summary
Unum Group , aDelaware general business corporation, and its insurance and non-insurance subsidiaries, which collectively withUnum Group we refer to as the Company, operate inthe United States , theUnited Kingdom , Poland, and, to a limited extent, in certain other countries. The principal operating subsidiaries inthe United States areUnum Life Insurance Company of America (Unum America ),Provident Life and Accident Insurance Company (Provident),The Paul Revere Life Insurance Company ,Colonial Life & Accident Insurance Company ,Starmount Life Insurance Company , in theUnited Kingdom ,Unum Limited , and inPoland ,Unum Zycie TUiR S.A. (Unum Poland ). We are a leading provider of financial protection benefits inthe United States and theUnited Kingdom . Our products include disability, life, accident, critical illness, dental and vision, and other related services. We market our products primarily through the workplace.
We have three principal operating business segments: Unum US,
International
Corporate segments. These segments are discussed more fully under "Segment
Results" included herein in this Item 2.
The benefits we provide help the working world thrive throughout life's moments and protect people from the financial hardship of illness, injury, or loss of life. As a leading provider of employee benefits, we offer a broad portfolio of products and services through the workplace that provide support when it is needed most. Specifically, we offer group, individual, voluntary, and dental and vision products as well as provide certain fee-based services. These products and services, which can be sold stand-alone or combined with other coverages, help employers of all sizes attract and retain the talented and capable workforce they need to succeed while protecting the incomes and livelihood of their employees. We believe employer-sponsored benefits are the most effective way to provide workers with access to information and options to protect their financial stability. Working people and their families, particularly those at lower and middle incomes, are perhaps the most vulnerable in today's economy yet are often overlooked by many providers of financial products and services. For many of these people, employer-sponsored benefits are the primary defense against the potentially catastrophic fallout of death, illness, or injury. We have established a corporate culture consistent with the social values our products provide. Because we see important links between the obligations we have to all of our stakeholders, we place a strong emphasis on operating with integrity and contributing to positive change in our communities. Accordingly, we are committed not only to meeting the needs of our customers who depend on us, but also to being accountable for our actions through sound and consistent business practices, a strong internal compliance program, a comprehensive risk management strategy, and an engaged employee workforce. This discussion and analysis should be read in conjunction with the consolidated financial statements and notes thereto in Part I, Item 1 and Item 3 contained in this Form 10-Q and with the "Cautionary Statement Regarding Forward-Looking Statements" included below the Table of Contents, as well as the discussion, analysis, and consolidated financial statements and notes thereto in Part I, Items 1 and 1A, and Part II, Items 7, 7A, and 8 of our annual report on Form 10-K for the year endedDecember 31, 2022 . Prior period financial information has been adjusted to reflect our modified retrospective adoption, effectiveJanuary 1, 2023 , of the Accounting Standards Update (ASU) 2018-12, related to targeted improvements to the accounting for long-duration contracts. See "Accounting Developments" included herein in this Item 2 as well as Note 2 of the "Notes to Consolidated Financial Statements" contained herein in Item 1.
Operating Performance and Capital Management
For the first quarter of 2023, we reported net income of
Included in our results for the first quarter of 2023 are:
•A net investment gain of
with a de minimis impact on earnings per diluted common share;
89 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- •Amortization of the cost of reinsurance of$11.0 million before tax and$8.7 million after tax, or$0.04 per diluted common share; and, •Non-contemporaneous reinsurance of$7.3 million before tax and$5.7 million after tax, or$0.03 per diluted common share.
Included in our results for the first quarter of 2022 are:
•A net investment loss of$13.8 million before tax and$10.6 million after tax, or$0.05 per diluted common share; •Amortization of the cost of reinsurance of$13.4 million before tax and$10.6 million after tax, or$0.05 per diluted common share; and, •Non-contemporaneous reinsurance of$12.4 million before tax and$9.8 million after tax, or$0.05 per diluted common share. Excluding these items, after-tax adjusted operating income for the first quarter of 2023 was$372.6 million , or$1.87 per diluted common share compared to$271.4 million , or$1.33 per diluted common share, for the first quarter of 2022. See "Reconciliation of Non-GAAP and Other Financial Measures" contained herein in this Item 2 for further discussion and a reconciliation of these items. Our Unum US segment reported an increase in adjusted operating income of 85.7 percent in the first quarter of 2023 compared to the same period of 2022, due primarily to favorable benefits experience across most product lines, partially offset by higher operating expenses and lower net investment income. The benefit ratio for our Unum US segment was 60.8 percent in the first quarter of 2023, compared to 72.5 percent in first quarter of 2022. Unum US sales increased 22.5 percent in first quarter 2023 compared to the same period of 2022. OurUnum International segment reported an increase in adjusted operating income, as measured inU.S. dollars, of 48.3 percent in the first quarter of 2023 compared to the same period of 2022. As measured in local currency, our UnumUK line of business reported an increase in adjusted operating income of 66.7 percent in the first quarter of 2023 compared to the same period of 2022 due to higher premium income and favorable benefits experience, partially offset by higher operating expenses and lower net investment income. The benefit ratio for our UnumUK line of business was 68.5 percent in the first quarter of 2023, compared to 81.2 percent in the same period of 2022.Unum International sales, as measured inU.S. dollars, increased 33.9 percent in the first quarter of 2023 compared to the same period of 2022. UnumUK sales, as measured in local currency, increased 37.8 percent in the first quarter of 2023 compared to the same period of 2022. Our Colonial Life segment reported a decrease in adjusted operating income of 8.7 percent in the first quarter of 2023 compared to the same period of 2022, due primarily to higher operating expenses, partially offset by slightly favorable benefits experience. The benefit ratio for Colonial Life was 53.0 percent in the first quarter of 2023, compared to 53.2 percent in the same period of 2022. Colonial Life sales increased 2.7 percent in the first quarter of 2023 compared to the same period of 2022. Our Closed Block segment reported income before income tax and net investment gains and losses of$39.9 million in the first quarter of 2023 compared to income before income tax and net investment gains and losses of$52.8 million in the same period of 2022, both of which includes the amortization of the cost of reinsurance and the impact of non-contemporaneous reinsurance related to the Closed Block individual disability reinsurance transaction. Excluding these items, our Closed Block segment reported adjusted operating income of$58.2 million in the first quarter of 2023, compared to$78.6 million in the same period of 2022. The long-term care interest adjusted loss ratio was less favorable during the first quarter of 2023 relative to the same period of 2022 but is within our long-term range of expectations. A rising interest rate environment could continue to positively impact our yields on new investments but could also continue to create unrealized losses in our current holdings. Our net investment income has been pressured as the majority of our investments were made at a decreasing level of interest rates indicative of the prevailing trend over the last decades. As ofMarch 31, 2023 , we do not hold any securities with a decline in fair value below amortized cost which we intend to sell and it is not more likely than not that we will be required to sell before recovery in amortized cost. The net unrealized loss on our fixed maturity securities was$1.9 billion atMarch 31, 2023 , compared to$3.0 billion atDecember 31, 2022 , with the decrease due primarily to a decrease inU.S. Treasury rates. The earned book yield on our investment portfolio was 4.35 percent for the first three months of 2023 compared to a yield of 4.57 percent for full year 2022. Additionally, a rising interest rate environment could result in reserve decreases specific to our liability for future policy benefits, as the reserve discount rate assumptions used in the calculation of our liability are updated at each reporting date using 90 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- a yield that is reflective of an upper-medium grade fixed income instrument, which is generally equivalent to a single-A interest rate matched to the duration of certain of our insurance liabilities. The change in discount rate assumptions on the liability for future policy benefits, net of reinsurance, due primarily to the decrease inU.S. Treasury rates during the first quarter of 2023, resulted in an increase to the liability for future policy benefits, net of reinsurance, of approximately$0.7 billion . We believe our capital and financial positions are strong. AtMarch 31, 2023 , the risk-based capital (RBC) ratio for our traditionalU.S. insurance subsidiaries, calculated on a weighted average basis using theNAIC Company Action Level formula, was approximately 425 percent. We repurchased 1.3 million shares ofUnum Group common stock under our share repurchase program during each of the first quarters of 2023 and 2022. Our weighted average common shares outstanding, assuming dilution, equaled 199.5 million and 203.5 million for the first quarter of 2023 and 2022, respectively. As ofMarch 31, 2023 ,Unum Group and our intermediate holding companies had available holding company liquidity of$1,343 million that was held primarily in bank deposits, commercial paper, money market funds, corporate bonds, municipal bonds, and asset backed securities. See Note 11 of the "Notes to Consolidated Financial Statements" contained herein in Item 1.
Inflation Reduction Act
InAugust 2022 , the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) was signed into law in theU.S. and includes certain corporate tax provisions effectiveJanuary 1, 2023 . The IRA imposes a new 15 percent corporate alternative minimum tax (CAMT) on adjusted financial statement income (AFSI) on corporations that have average AFSI over$1.0 billion in any prior three-year period, starting with years 2020 to 2022. We anticipate that our company will be an applicable corporation. We have not recorded any CAMT as ofMarch 31, 2023 . We do not expect that any CAMT incurred would impact earnings since it would be offset with a credit toward regular income tax in subsequent years. The IRA also imposes a one percent excise tax on the fair market value of corporate stock repurchases afterDecember 31, 2022 . This excise tax is recorded as part of the cost basis of treasury stock and is assessed on the fair value of stock repurchases, reduced by the fair value of any shares issued during the period. We have recorded$0.1 million of excise tax in stockholders' equity, as part of the cost basis of treasury stock, as ofMarch 31, 2023 .
In
increase from 19 percent to 25 percent, effective
Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19)
COVID-19 has caused disruption to the global economy and has unfavorably impacted our company as well as the overall insurance industry. During 2022 and in the first quarter of 2023, we experienced lower mortality in our life products lines, resulting primarily from lessening impacts of COVID-19 on our insured population when compared to pandemic levels. Due to the volatile and unprecedented nature of these events, we still cannot fully estimate the ultimate impact of the COVID-19 pandemic. We continue to closely monitor pandemic trends that have and may continue to have adverse impacts on our business.
Consolidated Company Outlook
We believe our strategy of providing financial protection products at the
workplace puts us in a position of strength. We continue to fulfill our
corporate purpose of helping the working world thrive throughout life's moments
by providing excellent service to people at their time of need. Our strategy
remains centered on growing our core businesses, through investing and
transforming our operations and technology to anticipate and respond to the
changing needs of our customers, expanding into new adjacent markets through
meaningful partnerships and effective deployment of our capital across our
portfolio.
As the pandemic impacts have lessened, we have experienced recovery in our
earnings driven by the underlying strength of our business and expect positive
operating trends in our core businesses to continue in 2023, including improved
claim experience. The products and services we provide delivered significant
value to employers, employees and their families, throughout the COVID-19
pandemic and we believe this will help drive sales and premium growth in 2023.
The current interest rate environment could continue to positively impact our
yields on new investments, but could also continue to create unrealized losses
in our current holdings. We also may continue to experience further volatility
in miscellaneous investment income primarily related to changes in partnership
net asset values as well as bond calls.
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As part of our discipline in pricing and reserving, we continuously monitor
emerging claim trends and interest rates. We will continue to take appropriate
pricing actions on new business and renewals that are reflective of the current
environment and may continue to utilize derivative financial instruments to
manage interest rate risk.
Our business is well-diversified by geography within our markets, industry
exposures and case size, and we continue to analyze and employ strategies that
we believe will help us navigate the current environment. These strategies allow
us to maintain financial flexibility to support the needs of our businesses,
while also returning capital to our shareholders. We have strong core businesses
that have a track record of generating significant free cash flow, and we will
continue to invest in our operations and expand into adjacent markets where we
can best leverage our expertise and capabilities to capture market growth
opportunities as those opportunities emerge. We believe that consistent
operating results, combined with the implementation of strategic initiatives and
the effective deployment of capital, will allow us to meet our financial
objectives.
Further discussion is included in "Reconciliation of Non-GAAP and Other
Financial Measures," "Accounting Developments", "Consolidated Operating
Results," "Segment Results," "Investments," and "Liquidity and Capital
Resources" contained herein in this Item 1 and in the "Notes to Consolidated
Financial Statements" contained herein in Item 2.
Reconciliation of Non-GAAP and Other Financial Measures
We analyze our performance using non-GAAP financial measures. A non-GAAP financial measure is a numerical measure of a company's performance, financial position, or cash flows that excludes or includes amounts that are not normally excluded or included in the most directly comparable measure calculated and presented in accordance withU.S generally accepted accounting principles (GAAP). The non-GAAP financial measure of "after-tax adjusted operating income" differs from net income as presented in our consolidated operating results and income statements prepared in accordance with GAAP due to the exclusion of investment gains or losses, the amortization of the cost of reinsurance, and the impact of non-contemporaneous reinsurance as specified in the reconciliations below. Investment gains or losses primarily include realized investment gains or losses, expected investment credit losses, and gains or losses on derivatives. We believe after-tax adjusted operating income is a better performance measure and better indicator of the profitability and underlying trends in our business. Investment gains or losses depend on market conditions and do not necessarily relate to decisions regarding the underlying business of our segments. Our investment focus is on investment income to support our insurance liabilities as opposed to the generation of investment gains or losses. Although we may experience investment gains or losses which will affect future earnings levels, a long-term focus is necessary to maintain profitability over the life of the business since our underlying business is long-term in nature, and we need to earn the interest rates assumed in calculating our liabilities. We have exited a substantial portion of our Closed Block individual disability product line through the two phases of the reinsurance transaction that were executed inDecember 2020 andMarch 2021 . As a result, we exclude the amortization of the cost of reinsurance that we recognized upon the exit of the business related to the policies on claim status as well as the impact of non-contemporaneous reinsurance that resulted from the adoption of ASU 2018-12. Due to the execution of the second phase of the reinsurance transaction occurring afterJanuary 1, 2021 , the transition date of ASU 2018-12, in accordance with the provisions of the ASU related to non-contemporaneous reinsurance, we were required to establish the ceded reserves using an upper-medium grade fixed-income instrument as of the reinsurance transaction date inMarch 2021 which resulted in higher ceded reserves compared to that which was reported historically. However, the direct reserves for the block reinsured in the second phase were calculated using the original discount rate utilized as of the transition date. Both the direct and ceded reserves are then remeasured at each reporting period using a current discount rate reflective of an upper-medium grade fixed-income instrument, with the changes recognized in OCI. While the total equity impact is neutral, the different original discount rates utilized for direct and ceded reserves result in disproportionate earnings impacts. The impact of non-contemporaneous reinsurance will fluctuate depending on the magnitude of reserve changes during the period. We believe that the exclusion of these items provides a better view of our results from our ongoing businesses. We may at other times exclude certain other items from our discussion of financial ratios and metrics in order to enhance the understanding and comparability of our operational performance and the underlying fundamentals, but this exclusion is not an indication that similar items may not recur and does not replace net income or net loss as a measure of our overall profitability. 92 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------
A reconciliation of GAAP financial measures to our non-GAAP financial measures
is as follows:
Three Months Ended March 31
2023 2022
(in millions) per share * (in millions) per share *
Net Income $ 358.3 $ 1.80 $ 240.4 $ 1.18
Excluding:
Net Investment Gain (Loss) (net of tax benefit of
$-; $3.2 ) 0.1 - (10.6) (0.05)
Amortization of the Cost of Reinsurance (net of tax
benefit of
(8.7) (0.04) (10.6) (0.05)
Non-Contemporaneous Reinsurance (net of tax benefit
of
(5.7) (0.03) (9.8) (0.05) After-tax Adjusted Operating Income$ 372.6 $ 1.87 $ 271.4 $ 1.33 *Assuming Dilution We measure and analyze our segment performance on the basis of "adjusted operating revenue" and "adjusted operating income" or "adjusted operating loss", which differ from total revenue and income before income tax as presented in our consolidated statements of income due to the exclusion of investment gains and losses, the amortization of the cost of reinsurance, and the impact of non-contemporaneous reinsurance as specified in the reconciliations below. These performance measures are in accordance with GAAP guidance for segment reporting, but they should not be viewed as a substitute for total revenue, income before income tax, or net income.
A reconciliation of total revenue to "adjusted operating revenue" and income
before income tax to "adjusted operating income" is as follows:
Three Months Ended March 31
2023 2022
(in millions of dollars)
Total Revenue $ 3,036.1 $ 2,980.6
Excluding:
Net Investment Gain (Loss) 0.1 (13.8)
Adjusted Operating Revenue $ 3,036.0 $ 2,994.4
Income Before Income Tax $ 451.3 $ 295.7
Excluding:
Net Investment Gain (Loss) 0.1 (13.8)
Amortization of the Cost of Reinsurance (11.0)
(13.4)
Non-Contemporaneous Reinsurance (7.3) (12.4) Adjusted Operating Income$ 469.5 $ 335.3 Critical Accounting Estimates We prepare our financial statements in accordance with GAAP. The preparation of financial statements in conformity with GAAP requires us to make estimates and assumptions that affect amounts reported in our financial statements and accompanying notes. Estimates and assumptions could change in the future as more information becomes known, which could impact the amounts reported and disclosed in our financial statements. The accounting estimates deemed to be most critical to our financial position and results of operations are those related to the liability for future policy benefits, deferred acquisition costs, valuation of investments, pension and postretirement benefit plans, income taxes, and contingent liabilities. The critical accounting estimates for which there were significant changes during the three months endedMarch 31, 2023 due to the adoption of ASU 2018-12, are included below. For additional information on the accounting estimates for which there was not a significant change during the three months endedMarch 31, 2023 , refer to the discussion under "Critical Accounting Estimates" in Part II, Item 7 of our annual report on Form 10-K for the year endedDecember 31, 2022 . 93 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Liability for Future Policy Benefits
Liabilities for future policy benefits represent the cost of claims that we estimate we will eventually pay to our policyholders and the related expenses for our non interest-sensitive products. Liability for future policy benefits includes policy liabilities for claims not yet incurred and for claims that have been incurred or are estimated to have been incurred but not yet reported to us. Liability for future policy benefits equaled$39.4 billion and$38.6 billion atMarch 31, 2023 andDecember 31, 2022 , respectively, or approximately 74.0 percent and 73.6 percent of our total liabilities, respectively. Liability for future policy benefits ceded to reinsurers was$8.1 billion at bothMarch 31, 2023 andDecember 31, 2022 , respectively, and are reported as a reinsurance recoverable in our consolidated balance sheets. Liabilities for future policy benefits are initially established in the same period in which we issue a policy, and equal the difference between projected future policy benefits and projected future premiums, allowing a margin for expenses and profit. The liabilities for future policy benefits build up and release over time, based on the emergence of cash flows, including premiums received and claims paid, and updated expectations for future cash flows. Liabilities for future policy benefits are updated at each reporting date to reflect changes in the liability based on policy development over time, emerging experience, and any assumption updates required to maintain the best estimate basis for expected future cash flows as required by GAAP. These future policy benefit liabilities are based on actual known facts regarding the liability, such as the benefits available under the applicable policy, the covered benefit period, the age, and, as appropriate, the occupation and cause of disability of the claimant, as well as assumptions derived from our actual historical experience and expected future changes in experience for factors such as the claim duration, claim administration expenses, discount rate, policy benefit offsets, including those for social security and other government-based welfare benefits. The liability for future policy benefits also includes the liabilities for incurred claims.
Future policy benefit liabilities primarily relate to our traditional
long-duration products which include our group, individual disability and
certain of our voluntary benefits products in our Unum US segment; group,
individual disability and life products in our
certain of our voluntary benefits products in our Colonial Life segment; and
long-term care and certain of our other products in our Closed Block segment.
In calculating the liability for future policy benefits, our long-duration
contracts are grouped into cohorts by product type and contract issue year.
Liabilities for future policy benefits for claims not yet incurred are generally
determined using the net premium model as prescribed by GAAP. At each reporting
period, the liability for future policy benefits is remeasured at the current
discount rate with the change recorded in other comprehensive income.
The calculation of the liability for future policy benefits involves numerous
assumptions including discount rate, lapses, mortality, and morbidity. Certain
product lines may utilize additional assumptions in calculating the liability
for future policy benefits in addition to those listed above. For long-term
care, premium rate increases are also a key assumption and for group long-term
disability, benefit offsets are also a key assumption. For voluntary benefits
products, claim costs are a key assumption. Claim costs capture the combined
effect of the incidence rate, the expected level of benefit to be paid, and the
claim resolution rate. Cash flow assumptions are reviewed and updated, as
needed, at least annually. Assumptions may be updated more frequently if
necessary based on trending experience.
On a quarterly basis, cohort level cash flow measures are updated based on the
emergence of actual experience. The updated cash flows, based on experience
emergence and any assumption updates, are used to determine the updated net
premiums, the portion of the gross premium required to provide for all benefits
and expenses, excluding acquisition costs or any costs that are required to be
charged to expense as incurred. The updated net premium ratio is used to
calculate the updated liability for future policy benefit as of the beginning of
year, at the original discount rate. To the extent the present value of future
benefits and expenses exceeds the present value of future gross premiums, an
immediate charge is recognized in net income, such that net premiums are set
equal to gross premiums. Future policy benefit liabilities are floored at zero
at the cohort level in situations where the liabilities for future policy
benefits are less than zero. The change in the liability for future policy
benefits, at the original discount rate, as of the beginning of the year,
resulting from cash flow changes is reflected as the change in benefits -
remeasurement gain or loss in the consolidated statements of income. The impact
of issuances, interest accretion, premiums collected, benefit payments and
lapses are reflected as the change in benefits in the consolidated statements of
income.
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Key Assumptions
The calculation of the liability for future policy benefits involves numerous assumptions, but the primary assumptions used to calculate the liability are (1) the discount rate, (2) the claim resolution rate, (3) the claim incidence rate, and (4) policyholder mortality and lapses: 1.The discount rate, which is used in calculating the liability for future policy benefits, is the interest rate that we use to discount future cash flows including premium and claim payments to determine the present value. A higher discount rate produces a lower reserve. If the discount rate is higher than our future investment returns, our invested assets will not earn enough investment income to support our future claim payments. The original discount rates are initially set at the transition date of ASU 2018-12, which wasJanuary 1, 2021 , for policies originally issued on or before the transition date, or at the policy issuance date, for policies issued after the transition date. For policies issued after the transition date, the original discount rate assumptions reflect an upper-medium grade (low-credit risk) fixed-income instrument yield based on the currency in which the liabilities are assumed. For all cohorts, the liability is then remeasured at the each reporting period using the current discount rate reflective of an upper-medium grade fixed-income instrument. We primarily utilize a forward curve which is derived from the underlying spot curve using interpolation to develop an ultimate forward rate. 2.The claim resolution rate is the probability that a disability or long-term care claim will close due to recovery or death of the insured. It is important because it is used to estimate how long benefits will be paid for a claim. Estimated resolution rates that are set too high will result in liabilities that are lower than they need to be to pay the claim benefits over time. Claim resolution assumptions involve many factors, including the cause of disability, the policyholder's age, the type of contractual benefits provided, and the time since initial disability. We primarily use our own claim experience to develop our claim resolution assumptions. These assumptions are established for the probability of death and the probability of recovery from disability. Our studies incorporate actual claim resolution experience over a number of years and consider any observed trends over the study period. We also consider any expected future changes in claim resolution experience. 3.The incidence rate is the rate at which new claims are submitted to us. The incidence rate is affected by many factors, including the age of the insured, the insured's occupation or industry, the benefit plan design, and certain external factors such as consumer confidence and levels of unemployment. We establish our incidence assumption using a historical review of actual incidence results along with an outlook of future incidence expectations. 4.Policyholder lapse and mortality assumptions reflect the probability that insureds' coverage is discontinued due to lapsation or death of the insured. For our life insurance products, mortality assumptions also reflect the probability that a benefit payment occurs. These rates are affected by many factors, including the age of the insured, the insured's occupation or industry, the benefit plan design, and the length of time from policy or certificate issue to valuation date. We establish our mortality and lapse assumptions using a historical review of actual results along with an outlook of future expectations. Establishing liability for future policy benefit assumptions is complex and involves many factors. Liabilities for future policy benefits, particularly for policies offering insurance coverage for long-term disabilities and long-term care, are dependent on numerous assumptions other than just those presented in the preceding discussion. The impact of internal and external events, such as changes in claims operational procedures, economic trends such as the rate of unemployment and the level of consumer confidence, the emergence of new diseases, new trends and developments in medical treatments, and legal trends and legislative changes, including changes to social security and other government-based welfare benefits programs which provide policy benefit offsets, among other factors, will influence claim incidence rates, claim resolution rates, and claim costs. In addition, for policies offering coverage for disability or long-term care at advanced ages, the level and pattern of mortality rates at advanced ages will impact overall benefit costs. Reserve assumptions differ by product line and by policy type within a product line. Additionally, in any period and over time, our actual experience may have a positive or negative variance from our long-term assumptions, either singularly or collectively, and these variances may offset each other. We review our assumptions at least annually with a long-term view of our expected experience over the life of a block of business rather than test just one or a few assumptions independently that may be aberrant over a short period of time. Based on this review, we update our assumptions to reflect our current best estimates. Therefore, while it is possible to evaluate the sensitivity of overall results in our liability for future policy benefits based upon a change in each individual assumption, the actual impacts of changes to a variety of underlying assumptions must be considered in the aggregate by product line in order to judge the overall potential implications to the liability for future policy benefits. The following section presents an overview of our trend analysis for key assumptions and the results of variability in our assumptions, in aggregate, for the 95 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- liabilities for future policy benefits which we believe are reasonably possible to have a material impact on our future financial results if actual claims yield a materially different amount than what we currently expect and have reserved for, either favorable or unfavorable.
Cash Flow Assumption Review
Our cash flow assumption reviews during the years endedDecember 31, 2022 and 2021 resulted in the following net favorable impacts to income before income tax as a result of updating certain assumptions: December 31 2022 2021 (in millions of dollars) Cash Flow Assumption Update Impacts to Income Before Income Tax Unum US Group Disability$ 121.0 $ 215.0 Group Life and Accidental Death and Dismemberment 34.0 - Individual Disability (18.6) 4.0 Voluntary Benefits 17.0 12.2 Total Unum US 153.4 231.2 Unum International 24.5 4.6 Colonial Life 55.3 23.5 Closed Block Long-term Care 2.9 (24.4) Closed Block - All Other (11.0) - Total Closed Block (8.1) (24.4) Total$ 225.1 $ 234.9
There were no significant changes in our cash flow assumptions during the three
months ended
2022 Significant Cash Flow Assumption Updates:
The cash flow assumption updates in our US group long-term disability product line and our waiver of premium benefits for our Unum US group life product line reduced our liability for future policy benefits by$121.0 million and$34.0 million before tax with a corresponding increase to policy benefits - remeasurement gain, respectively, due primarily to sustained improvement in claim recovery trends since our last assumption update, partially offset by lower social security benefit offsets for our group long-term disability product line.
The cash flow assumption updates in our Colonial Life segment reduced our
liability for future policy benefits by
increase to policy benefits - remeasurement gain, due primarily to improvement
in certain of our claim cost assumptions since our most recent assumption
update.
2021 Significant Cash Flow Assumption Updates:
The cash flow assumption updates in our US group long-term disability product line and our waiver of premium benefits for our Unum US group life product line reduced our liability for future policy benefits by$215.0 million before tax with a corresponding increase to policy benefits - remeasurement gain, due primarily to sustained improvement in claim recovery trends since our last assumption update. 96 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Trends in Key Assumptions
Generally, we do not expect our mortality and morbidity claim incidence trends or our persistency trends to change significantly in the short-term, and to the extent that these trends do change, we expect those changes to be gradual over a longer period of time. We have historically experienced an increase in our group long-term disability morbidity claim incidence trends during and following a recessionary period and believe claim incidence trends may continue to somewhat follow general economic conditions and demographics of the general workforce. Regarding the 2020 COVID-19 pandemic and the related impact on the social and economic environment, we experienced elevated mortality and disability claims incidence rates during 2020 and 2021. Our view on our long-term mortality and morbidity expectations has not been impacted by this limited experience. Generally, we do not expect our persistency trends to change significantly in the short-term, and to the extent that these trends do change, we expect those changes to be gradual over a longer period of time. Although both short-term and long-term interest rates increased in 2022 and into 2023, the long-term discount rates underlying the majority of our liabilities are reflective of rates based on the issue year of the cohort or rates underlying the liabilities at transition to the updated accounting basis as prescribed by ASU 2018-12. The discount rate assumption for new cohorts, after the transition date, is based on the interest rate of an upper-medium grade fixed-income instrument for that cohort period. Our claim resolution rate assumption used in determining the liability for future policy benefits is our expectation of the resolution rate we will experience over the life of the block of business and will vary from actual experience in any one period, both favorably and unfavorably. Claim resolution rates are very sensitive to operational and environmental changes and have a greater chance of significant variability in a shorter period of time than our other reserve assumptions. These rates are reviewed on a quarterly basis for the death and recovery components separately. While claim resolution rates in our Unum US group long-term disability product line have shown some variability over the last several years, they have exhibited an increasing trend.
Sensitivity Analysis
We monitor our key assumptions and test the sensitivity of our liability for future policy benefits under a range of scenarios. This sensitivity analysis was completed as ofDecember 31, 2022 for our product lines with a higher level of estimation uncertainty and utilizes the liability for future policy benefits valued at the original discount rate. See "Quantitative and Qualitative Disclosures about Market Risk" contained herein in Item 3 for information regarding the sensitivity of the current discount rate used to remeasure the liability for future policy benefits at each reporting date. In our estimation, scenarios based on certain variations in each of our assumptions for our Unum US group long-term disability product line could produce a change of approximately$100 million which represents 1.8 percent of our Unum US group disability liability for future policy benefits balance. Of the assumptions impacting the estimated change in the liability for future policy benefits, the largest contributor is the claim resolution rate for which we assumed a change of approximately 10 percent. In our estimation, scenarios based on certain variations in each of our assumptions for our Unum US voluntary benefits product line could produce a change of approximately$15 million which represents 1.3 percent of our Unum US voluntary benefits liability for future policy benefits balance. Of the assumptions impacting the estimated change in the liability for future policy benefits, the largest contributor is the claim costs for which we assumed a change of approximately 10 percent. In our estimation, scenarios based on certain possible variations in each of our assumptions for our Colonial Life segment could produce a change of approximately$60 million which represents 3.2 percent of our Colonial Life liability for future policy benefits balance. Of the assumptions impacting the estimated change in the liability for future policy benefits, the largest contributor is the claim costs, for which we assumed a change of approximately 10 percent. We also consider variability in our assumptions related to the long-term care liability for future policy benefits. In our estimation, scenarios based on certain variations in each of our assumptions could produce potential results as illustrated in the chart below. The liability for future policy benefits for long-term care is based upon a number of key assumptions, and each assumption has various factors which may impact the long-term outcome. Key assumptions with respect to active policy lapses and mortality, claims incidence and resolutions, and future premium rate increases must incorporate extended views of expectations for many years into the future. The liability for future policy benefits is highly sensitive to these estimates. Key 97 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- assumptions and related impacts are also heavily interrelated in both their outcome and in their effects on the liability for future policy benefits. For example, changes in the view of morbidity and mortality might be mitigated by either potential future premium rate increases and/or morbidity improvements due to general improvement in health and/or medical breakthroughs. There is a potentially wide range of outcomes for each assumption and in totality. As a result, and given the size of the long-term care liability for future policy benefits in relation to the total liability for future policy benefits, our sensitivity analysis for long-term care reflects the potential impact to the present value of gross liability cash flows for future policy benefits for updates to our key assumptions for long-term care is as follows. The impact of changes to these assumptions would partially be reflected in the period in which the assumptions are updated and partially across future periods. PV Gross LFPB Cash Flows1 Long-Term Care Cash Flow Assumptions Sensitivity Unfavorable Favorable (in millions of dollars) Active Policy Lapses and Mortality 7.5 % $ 440 $ 420 Claim Incidence 3.0 % 390 400 Claim Resolutions 2.0 % 300 290 Morbidity/Mortality Improvement2 No Improvement/2x 980
1,390
Future Unapproved Premium Rate Increases 10.0 % 80 80 1Present value of cash flows specific to the LFPB at original discount rate, except using gross premiums instead of net premiums. 2Unfavorable scenario reflects no future improvement. Favorable scenario reflects improvement rates twice as high as baseline. The impact to current period liability for future benefits would be smaller in magnitude than the present value of gross liability for future policy benefits cash flows due to the updating of the net premium ratio. The current period liability for future policy benefits impact may be asymmetrical (i.e. larger for the unfavorable scenario) for some sensitivities if the assumption update causes the net premium ratio to be capped at 100 percent for any given cohort. We believe that these sensitivities provide a reasonable estimate of the possible changes in liability for future policy benefit balances for those product lines where we believe it is possible that variability in the assumptions, in the aggregate, could result in a material impact on our liability for future policy benefit levels, but we record our liability for future policy benefits based on our long-term best estimate for our cohorts and these assumptions are reviewed and updated annually to reflect the current best estimates. Product lines that have long-term claim payout periods have a greater potential for significant variability in claim costs, either positive or negative. We closely monitor emerging experience and use these results to inform our view of long-term assumptions.
Deferred Acquisition Costs (DAC)
DAC represents the deferred incremental direct costs associated with the successful acquisition of new or renewal insurance contracts. Such costs include commissions, other agency compensation, certain selection and policy issue expenses, and certain field expenses. Acquisition costs that do not vary with the production of new business, such as commissions on group products which are generally level throughout the life of the policy, are excluded from the deferral. The DAC balance equaled$2,602.4 million and$2,560.0 million atMarch 31, 2023 andDecember 31, 2022 respectively, or approximately 4.2 percent of our total assets at each period.
Generally, we do not expect our key assumptions for DAC to change significantly
in the short-term, and to the extent that these trends do change, we expect
those changes to be gradual over a longer period of time.
Certain of the policy issue expenses include employee costs resulting from time spent on acquisition activities that result in the sale or renewal of policies, including selling and underwriting. The estimates of time spent on the successful acquisition of new or renewal business are reviewed and updated, as needed, at least annually. There were no significant changes in these assumptions during the years endedDecember 31, 2022 or 2021 or the three months endedMarch 31, 2023 . 98 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- The lapse and mortality assumptions used to amortize DAC for our traditional long-duration products are consistent with the assumptions used to estimate the liability for future policy benefits. The underlying assumptions used to determine DAC amortization are updated concurrently with any related assumption changes for the liability for future policy benefits and changes in estimates are recognized prospectively over the remaining expected term of the related contracts. Amortization expense is adjusted based on actual versus expected experience through an adjustment to the prospective rate of amortization. During the years endedDecember 31, 2022 and 2021, we updated our policyholder lapse and mortality assumptions used to develop the future amortization for DAC for the Unum US individual disability and voluntary benefits product lines as well as for the Colonial Life segment, consistent with the related assumption updates for the corresponding liabilities for future policy benefits. There were no significant changes in these assumptions during the three months endedMarch 31, 2023 .
See Note 8 of the "Notes to Consolidated Financial Statements" contained herein
in Item 1 for further discussion of our DAC accounting policy and DAC
rollforward.
Accounting Developments
In 2018, theFinancial Accounting Standards Board issued ASU 2018-12, "Targeted Improvements to the Accounting for Long-Duration Contracts". This update significantly amended the accounting and disclosure requirements for long-duration insurance contracts. The update is effective for periods beginningJanuary 1, 2023 . We adopted this guidance effectiveJanuary 1, 2023 using the modified retrospective approach with changes applied as ofJanuary 1, 2021 , also referred to as the transition date. We adjusted all prior period operating results, balance sheets, and related metrics throughout this document.
See Note 2 of the "Notes to Consolidated Financial Statements" contained herein
in Item 1 for further information.
99
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