U.S. recession unlikely soon but federal tax reform failure could be a trigger, chamber speaker says
And there is a high likelihood that
"We will have another recession someday. Nothing is on the horizon," Foster said.
Foster joined the
He has also worked at the
The
As companies continue to hire, there will be increased pressure on raising wages, leading to what Foster called the economy's "tough love" stage that will include business failures.
"It's a sign that our economy is getting really strong," Foster said.
When the
That shock could come in the form of failed federal government policies or actions, he said. In particular, the risk is huge if the federal government doesn't take action relatively early next year on the debt limit and that leads to a technical default, threatening the entire global economy, he said.
"We're not really sure what happens if the
Other possible shocks could include an unexpected repeal of the
And a third shock that could cause a recession would be if
"Businesses are investing in anticipation
"So far we're in pretty good shape," he said.
Foster said he is 80 to 90 percent sure a tax reform package will be passed, saying the
"That's why we're seeing tax reform move, and move very, very rapidly," Foster said. "Tax reform can move the economy in a very significant way."
The tax reform measures now being discussed also likely would have happened, with tweaks, under a
"This could be just as easily a Democratic tax plan as a Republican tax plan," he said.
But the partisan atmosphere in
Tax reform that passes without any Democratic votes has a high risk of not being permanent, Foster said.
"Permanence is critical for effectiveness," Foster said.
Reporter
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