Trump's health plan could save billions or add billions

(The Center Square) – An early appraisal of President Donald Trump's health care plan found the changes could save $50 billion or add as much $350 billion in new costs over a decade.

Trump on Thursday called on Congress to enact his Great Healthcare Plan, which he said would lower drug prices and insurance premiums. The plan has parts similar to the Republican's Lower Health Care Premiums for All Americans Act, which the Congressional Budget Office estimated could save $35.6 billion over a decade.

However, the CBO also estimated it would decrease the number of people with health insurance by an average of 100,000. It also estimated it would reduce premiums by about 11% through 2035.

Trump's proposal won't change Medicare, Medicaid or the health insurance plans people get through their jobs.

An analysis from the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget estimated the cost-reducing provisions of Trump's plan could reduce primary deficits by about $50 billion over a decade. Depending on the details, Trump's proposed Affordable Care Act changes could generate some additional savings or increase primary deficits by up to $350 billion, the group estimated.

Trump's plan would codify his Most Favored Nation drug price deals with drug makers, allow for more over-the-counter drugs, fund cost-sharing reductions under the ACA, make changes to payments to pharmacy benefit managers and increase price transparency for insurers and providers.

The plan proposes sending money directly to consumers, rather than insurers. Trump has said for months that he wants to send money to Americans, not insurance companies.

"Obamacare was designed to make insurance companies rich," Trump said in a video message announcing the plan. "I want to end this flagrant scam and put extra money straight into the healthcare savings account in your name, and you go out and buy your own healthcare, and you’ll make a great deal, you’ll get better healthcare for less money – that way you can choose the care that is right for your family."

The details matter. Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget noted "the fiscal impact of this provision depends heavily on what the White House means."

"The White House's Great Healthcare Plan contains some ideas that could help to modestly reduce health care costs for the federal government and consumers of health care," Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget wrote. "However, authorizing up to $350 billion of additional subsidies to cover premiums and out-of-pocket costs would be extremely costly, regardless of whether those subsidies go directly to the insurance company or to health consumers."