TRIPLE-I/MILLIMAN: ECONOMIC AND UNDERWRITING TRENDS POINT TO AN IMPROVING P/C INDUSTRY OUTLOOK

States News Service

The following information was released by the Insurance Information Institute:

New Report Examines Economic Drivers Shaping Performance

Underwriting conditions remain favorable across much of the U.S. property/casualty (P/C) insurance industry as economic drivers stabilize and moderating claims-cost pressures support stronger underwriting results, according to the latest members-only Insurance Economics and Underwriting Projections: A Forward View from the Insurance Information Institute (Triple-I) and Milliman. While insurers continue to face elevated catastrophe risk, geopolitical uncertainty and liability pressures, the report projects stronger underwriting performance across many major lines through 2028.

"Our latest economic forecasts for the P/C industry have improved since earlier this year," said Michel Leonard, Ph.D., CBE, chief economist and data scientist at the Triple-I. "P/C underlying growth, a key economic driver of existing and new business premium volume growth, is expected to outpace overall U.S. GDP growth through 2028. Even with that momentum, we continue to see significant risks to P/C economic drivers especially in the rest of 2026, including but not limited to inflationary pressures caused by the Persian Gulf conflict."

Triple-I's forecast assumes geopolitical tensions ease during the second half of 2026, though continued uncertainty remains a significant risk to the economic outlook.

Key Highlights

P/C underlying growth and replacement costs are now expected to outperform overall U.S. GDP growth this year and through 2028. However, Triple-I continues to see significant risks to P/C economic drivers, especially during the second half of 2026.

Personal lines saw strong underwriting results in Q1 and that is expected to continue for the full year 2026; however, homeowners results face greater uncertainty due to elevated catastrophe risks.

For commercial lines, property-related coverages fared well in Q1. Loss ratios for liability-exposed lines such as general liability and commercial auto remain elevated.

Workers' compensation remains well positioned, benefiting from stable employment and wage trends that contribute to favorable underwriting conditions.

"Underwriting performance continues to strengthen across much of the P/C industry," said Patrick Schmid, Ph.D., chief insurance officer at Triple-I. "That said, each line responds differently to economic conditions, persistent claims drivers such as legal system abuse, and changing exposures, making disciplined underwriting and risk-based pricing essential to long-term market stability."

"General liability and commercial auto continue to present the greatest underwriting challenges, reflecting persistent loss-cost pressures that weigh on underwriting performance despite broader improvement across the P/C industry," said Jason B. Kurtz, FCAS, MAAA, principal and consulting actuary at Milliman. "We see elevated loss ratios for these lines continuing based on Q1 results."

Workers' compensation continues to deliver favorable underwriting results, benefiting from stable employment, steady wage growth and favorable loss trends.

Stephen Cooper, practice leader and senior economist at NCCI, highlighted three trends NCCI is closely monitoring.

"Overall, improving employment and contained medical inflation are positive signals for workers' compensation," said Cooper. "Rising interest rates and potential frequency pressures are areas to watch."

About the Insurance Information Institute (Triple-I)

Since 1960, the Insurance Information Institute (Triple-I) has been the trusted voice of risk and insurance, delivering unique, data-driven insights to educate, elevate and connect consumers, industry professionals, policymakers, and the media. An affiliate of The Institutes, Triple-I represents a diverse membership accounting for nearly 50% of all U.S. property/casualty premiums written. Our members include mutual and stock companies, personal and commercial lines, primary insurers and reinsurers serving regional, national and global markets.

About The Institutes

The Institutes are a not-for-profit dedicated to helping people and organizations succeed in the essential disciplines of risk management and insurance. Through numerous affiliated business units and brands, we educate, elevate, and connect students, professionals, and organizations by equipping them with the knowledge, skills, and collaboration they need to tackle the most complex risk management and insurance challenges. Backed by more than 115 years as a trusted knowledge partner, we empower people and organizations to create a more resilient world.

About Milliman

Milliman leverages deep expertise, actuarial rigor, and advanced technology to develop solutions for a world at risk. We help clients in the public and private sectors navigate urgent, complex challengesfrom extreme weather and market volatility to financial insecurity and rising health costsso they can meet their business, financial, and social objectives. Our solutions encompass insurance, financial services, healthcare, life sciences, and employee benefits. Founded in 1947, Milliman is an independent firm with offices in major cities around the globe. For further information, visit www.milliman.com.