Studies from University of Tasmania Yield New Information about Risk Management (A Flexible Hierarchical Bayesian Modeling Technique for Risk…

Studies from University of Tasmania Yield New Information about Risk Management (A Flexible Hierarchical Bayesian Modeling Technique for Risk Analysis of Major Accidents)

By a News Reporter-Staff News Editor at Insurance Weekly News -- Investigators discuss new findings in Risk Management. According to news reporting out of Launceston, Australia, by VerticalNews editors, research stated, "Safety analysis of rare events with potentially catastrophic consequences is challenged by data scarcity and uncertainty. Traditional causation-based approaches, such as fault tree and event tree (used to model rare event), suffer from a number of weaknesses."

Our news journalists obtained a quote from the research from the University of Tasmania, "These include the static structure of the event causation, lack of event occurrence data, and need for reliable prior information. In this study, a new hierarchical Bayesian modeling based technique is proposed to overcome these drawbacks. The proposed technique can be used as a flexible technique for risk analysis of major accidents. It enables both forward and backward analysis in quantitative reasoning and the treatment of interdependence among the model parameters. to-source variability in data sources is also taken into account through a robust probabilistic safety analysis."

According to the news editors, the research concluded: "The applicability of the proposed technique has been demonstrated through a case study in marine and offshore industry."

For more information on this research see: A Flexible Hierarchical Bayesian Modeling Technique for Risk Analysis of Major Accidents. Risk Analysis, 2017;37(9):1668-1682. Risk Analysis can be contacted at: Wiley, 111 River St, Hoboken 07030-5774, NJ, USA. (Wiley-Blackwell - www.wiley.com/; Risk Analysis - onlinelibrary.wiley.com/journal/10.1111/(ISSN)1539-6924)

Our news journalists report that additional information may be obtained by contacting F. Khan, University of Tasmania, Australian Maritime College, Natl Center Maritime Engn & Hydrodynam, Launceston, Tas, Australia. Additional authors for this research include H.Y. Yu and B. Veitch.

Keywords for this news article include: Launceston, Australia, Australia and New Zealand, Risk Management, University of Tasmania.

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