S&P 500 Monthly Forecast: November 2024 – 31 October 2024

-- The S&P 500 has been fairly noisy during the month of October, as we continue to see a lot of buyers, but we also see a lot of questions asked about the idea of interest rate spiking in the bond market despite the fact that the Federal Reserve has cut interest rates by 50 basis points recently.
-- All things being equal, this is a market that I think continues to see buyers over the longer term, and it would not surprise me at all to see the market go looking to the 6000 level.

This is not to say that we reached 6000 the month of November, but we start to get close to the end of the year, and people start to think about the “Santa Claus rally” that comes into the picture, and therefore start to look for this market to rally a bit. Short-term pullbacks end up being buying opportunities this time of year typically, but we do have to get past the November 5 presidential election in the United States, which could cause few shudders in this market.

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I do believe that the bond market will continue to be a major issue, but at this point in time, I think the market is likely to continue to focus on the idea that the Federal Reserve will do whatever he can to save Wall Street, because quite frankly it’s the Fed’s unwritten job. The 6000 level will get a lot of attention, but if we can break above there then it opens up a lot of unknown momentum. Underneath, I think that we’ve got a situation where the 5700 level gets tested as support.

Regardless, almost like clockwork, we start to see the stock market rally toward the end of November as market managers do everything, they can in order to boost their gains for clients by the end of the year. After all, anybody who has underperformed in this type of environment could be in serious trouble, and therefore we start to see a lot of panic buying this time of year. The beginning of November might be somewhat quiet and stagnant, but by the time we get toward the end of it, I suspect buyers will start to take over again.

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