September jobs numbers? It's a mystery

The Bureau of Labor Statistics is withholding the release of a vital monthly jobs report because of the government shutdown, making it difficult to discern the state of the economy and hiring environment.

The government was supposed to release the September jobs numbers on Friday. But BLS stopped publishing reports midweek, when federal operations' funding lapsed.

Economists say the situation will make it harder for central bankers at the Federal Reserve to decide if another cut to interest rates is warranted. More broadly, the uncertainty could worsen the expected slowdown in economic growth due to the government shutdown.

"The longer the shutdown drags on, the greater the risk to the private sector, the unemployment rate, and other spillover effects. For example, contractors that rely on government spending may opt to furlough workers who would then face a greater risk of losing income and reducing spending,” analysts at RBC Capital Markets said in a recent note to clients. “While there is no precise relationship between the duration of shutdowns and the drag on the economy, in this environment, the risk of slower growth stems from reduced visibility into the economy in an already uncertain period, and less so from the shutdown itself."

The U.S. added only 22,000 jobs in August, according to the last jobs report, with health care being one of the few sectors seeing growth.

It was a disappointing report that added to concerns about a hiring slowdown — and raised the stakes around the September report. A new ADP report said the U.S. shed 32,000 jobs on private payrolls in September, but the official federal numbers often differ from that report.

Congressional leaders couldn't overcome a Senate filibuster and fund the government this week, as Democrats held out for robust health care subsidies, including for illegal immigrants. That triggered the shutdown and the resulting blackout in economic data.

Sen. Elizabeth Warren, Massachusetts Democrat, said the BLS should have released the jobs report as planned.

“While the data has been processed and there was time to prepare for the data’s release in the event of a government shutdown, the Administration is choosing not to release Friday’s jobs report,” she wrote Thursday in a letter to BLS and Office of Management and Budget Director Russ Vought.

She pointed to recent comments from Fed Chair Jerome Powell, who said the bank’s Open Market Committee relies on monthly data to make decisions around interest rates.

“I urge you to authorize the release of the September Employment Situation report without delay,” Ms. Warren wrote. “The American people deserve transparency about the state of our economy.”

Wall Street is shrugging off the shutdown, with stocks trading in positive territory. Investors seem to be betting the shutdown won’t last long.

Others say real harm is being done.

Heather Long, the chief economist at the Navy Federal Credit Union, said the BLS has not released its jobs reports for the first time since a 2013 shutdown.

“It's unsettling,” she wrote on X. The economy is about people. And a lot of people are struggling in this ‘frozen’ job market with almost no hiring. Is it stabilizing or getting worse? Today's data would have shed important light on that.”