Race to zero: Can California’s power grid handle a 15-fold increase in electric cars?
As
State officials claim that the 12.5 million electric vehicles expected on
Under a groundbreaking new state regulation, 35% of new 2026 car models sold in
The Air Resources Board enacted the mandate last August — and just six days later,
At the same time as electrifying cars and trucks,
With 15 times more electric cars expected on
"We have confidence now" that electricity will meet future demand "and we're able to plan for it," said
But in setting those projections, the state agencies responsible for providing electricity — the
"We're going to have to expand the grid at a radically much faster rate," said
Yet the
"We are not yet on track. If we just take a laissez-faire approach with the market, then we will not get there," said
The twin goals of ramping up zero-emission vehicle sales and achieving a carbon-free future can only be accomplished, Victor said, if several factors align. Drivers must avoid charging cars during evening hours when less solar energy is available. More than a million new charging stations must be operating. And offshore wind farms — nonexistent in
To provide enough electricity,
- Convince drivers to charge their cars during off-peak hours: With new discounted rates, utilities are urging residents to avoid charging their cars
- Build solar and wind at an unprecedented pace: Shifting to all-renewable power requires at least 6 gigawatts of new resources a year for the next 25 years — a pace that's never been met before.
- Develop a giant new industry: State officials predict that offshore wind farms will provide enough power for about 1.5 million homes by 2030 and 25 million homes by 2045. But no such projects are in the works yet. Planning them, obtaining an array of permits and construction could take at least seven to eight years.
- Build 15 times more public chargers: About 1.2 million chargers will be needed for the 8 million electric cars expected in
- Expand vehicle-to-grid technology: State officials hope electric cars will send energy back to the grid when electricity is in high demand, but the technology is new and has not been tested in electric cars.
Day and night charging
Climate change has already stressed
Providing electricity during those hot summer evenings — when people use the most — will be a challenge, said Gee of the
"That's what we're particularly concerned about," he said. "We have enough electricity to support consumption the vast majority of the time. It's when we have those peak hours during those tough months."
The total electricity consumed by Californians is expected to surge by 96% between 2020 and 2045, while net demand during peak hours is projected to increase 60%, according to a study commissioned by
Southern California Edison worries that if drivers charge during late summer afternoons, electric vehicles could strain the grid, said
Concerns about the grid "are quite a big deal for us," he said. "We don't want people to be confused or lose confidence that the utility is going to be able to meet their needs."
But for many drivers, charging during the day or late at night is not a problem: Most electric cars have chargers that can be automatically turned on after
That's because — unlike filling a gas tank — charging an electric car takes much longer. Drivers may not have a reliable place to park their cars for long periods of time during the day while they work or late at night when they're home. To encourage daytime charging, Victor said the state must drastically boost the number of fast chargers and workplace stations.
Fast chargers — like the
"A lot of the increase in demand is going to come from electrifying transportation and it's really going to hinge on when people charge. That's a behavioral and technological question that we really don't know the answers to," Victor said.
The
For instance, in the summer when energy is the most expensive,
These time-of-use rates have been a "highly successful" strategy, Doherty said. Most
But not all state leaders are convinced that discounts alone will convince electric car owners to lay off charging in evenings.
"Moving forward into the future, it seems to me that the strategy is putting more and more stress and responsibility on the customer," Assemblymember
For
"The cost of electricity is trending so high that it represents a threat to
A rush to replace natural gas, nuclear with solar, wind
To replace them, the state
A new state mandate requires 60% of
And by 2045, solar and wind combined must quadruple, according to the
Solar farms face big obstacles: insufficient materials for energy-storing batteries and a need for more transmission lines, especially in the
There's also some not-in-my-backyard pushback in the desert and other rural communities.
To speed clean energy projects, Newsom and the Legislature enacted a controversial new law allowing state agencies to usurp control from local governments for siting solar, wind and some battery backup projects.
The state must ensure that the transition to clean electricity protects the environment, is affordable and equitable, and avoids delays and siting issues, according to Breckel. That's why
"Is the state on track to achieve its clean energy goals? Right now, there's no one who can give you a definitive answer. More transparency on a plan that goes from here to there every year where we can track progress will really help answer that question," Breckel said.
Several lawmakers say the state isn't moving fast enough.
Assemblymember
"What you're saying to me is 'We're working on it, and we have no idea when we will make the system better,' and there's nothing that you're telling me that we could do as a state to make improvements," he said. "Your answer is absolutely not appropriate…It's very concerning."
Ting expressed frustration that state leaders were "going backwards" by extending the lifespan of
Assemblymember
"We can't forget about the costs that low-income communities like mine will bear from this," Rivas said. She said "many disadvantaged communities across the state bear the brunt of impacts" of pollution from fossil fuels and climate change's extreme heat.
Gunda said the commission will have a report for legislators later this year. "You're absolutely right that we need a long-term strategy for making sure we can get through the peaks with clean resources," he told legislators.
Hinging hopes on wind farms
The state's ambitious offshore wind targets build off
Last
That sounds promising, but the state is hinging its hopes on an emerging sector that doesn't yet exist in
"It's a huge challenge," Stern said. "It's going to require a lot of coordination and a lot of investment and a lot of collaboration across different types of stakeholders, government industry, non-governmental organizations and labor unions."
Current offshore wind turbines off the
This new technology won't be cheap. The cost of producing the energy averages about
Still, offshore wind's potential is huge. Wind power tends to be stronger in the ocean than on land, making it valuable during times when renewables like traditional wind and solar can't produce enough energy. Winds off the coast are also strongest in the late afternoon and evening, which is exactly when — particularly in the summer — electricity demand surges.
Offshore wind farms "offer the promise of a lot of clean energy at the time of day and season when we need it most," Stern said. "Even as hard as this is going to be, I have a lot of optimism that we can pull it off."
More than a million chargers needed
As electric cars surge, so will demand for public chargers.
Mostly, private companies are responsible for installing them, although state grants help. A standard level 2 charger could cost between
In addition,
"Every major automaker in the world is now making electric vehicles and we need to make it possible to charge everywhere in the state for everyone," said
Uncertainty of vehicle-to-grid technology
Securing the stability of the grid also requires a huge investment in energy storage, which can help provide energy during peak demand times. One method is called vehicle-to-grid integration, in which energy can be reabsorbed by the grid when the vehicle is parked.
So far, the only projects that exist in
The technology is still in the early stages, has not been tested with other electric vehicles and it's unclear when it will be ready.
Some car owners may not want to use the technology because they worry that it could affect their car battery's life. While studies have not reported battery damage, convincing consumers could be a slow, difficult process, he said. Utilities will have to sway them with cheaper rates and other incentives for it to work.
As with many of the problems related to energy and electric vehicles, "it's a matter of time, education, awareness and incentives," Gadh said.
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