POLL: Gina Raimondo, Sheldon Whitehouse holding strong leads with election a month away

Oct. 09--PROVIDENCE, R.I. -- Gov. Gina Raimondo heads into the final weeks of her 2018 campaign for reelection with a commanding 14-point lead over Republican challenger Allan Fung, according to a newly released poll conducted for The Providence Journal, Rhode Island Public Radio and ABC6.

Democrat Raimondo leads the pack with 48 percent of the potential vote, compared to 34 percent for Fung, the Republican mayor of Cranston. Independent candidate Joe Trillo, the former GOP lawmaker and chairman of Donald Trump's 2016 Rhode Island campaign, has 5 percent support, and other candidates in the race barely registered.

Raimondo is not the only incumbent with an edge in Rhode Island, where Democrats dominate the five top state offices, the congressional delegation and the legislature.

U.S. Sen. Sheldon Whitehouse leads his Republican challenger Robert Flanders, a former Rhode Island Supreme Court Justice, 57 percent to 33 percent. In this race, few were still undecided.

House Speaker Nicholas Mattiello seems to be an exception to the pro-incumbent, Democratic tilt.

Arguably the most powerful politician in the state, Democrat Mattiello only needs to win reelection in his conservative-leaning Cranston House district. Nevertheless, only 23 percent of voters statewide who were surveyed approve of the job he is doing as speaker, while 40 percent disapprove. More than a third were unsure.

The responses were similar across party lines: only 22 percent of Democrats, 24 percent of Independents, and 27 percent of Republicans approve of Mattiello's job performance. And despite his well-publicized resistance to legislation that would put an abortion-rights guarantee into state law, just 29 percent of self-identified Catholics approve of the job he is doing at the State House, while 41 percent disapprove.

Just about half (51 percent) of the registered Rhode Island voters who were surveyed think the state is headed in the right direction.

The survey of 561 randomly selected Rhode Island registered voters -- including 503 "likely" voters -- was conducted by the University of New Hampshire Survey Center between Sept. 27 and Oct. 6. The margin of error is plus or minus 4.4 percent. MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THIS POLL

"None of these numbers surprise me too much," said Andrew E. Smith, director of the University of New Hampshire Survey Center. "Rhode Island is a heavily Democratic state and this will be a good year for Democrats with a Republican President."

Asked about a recent WPRI-Roger Williams University poll that showed Raimondo leading Fung 43 percent to 36 percent, Smith said "you can't really say that Raimondo expanded her lead over Fung. It is within the margin of error for the two polls."

"That said, it is not surprising that she is consolidating her support among Democrats as we get closer to the election," Smith said. And clearly: "Trillo's remaining in the race is hurting Fung somewhat."

"But Fung and Raimondo have [both] significant problems with the electorate -- 43 percent of likely voters have an unfavorable opinion of Raimondo and 41 percent have an unfavorable opinion of Fung. This is going to make it difficult for either to move very much and I expect a slog from here until Election Day. Raimondo's and Fung's supporters are pretty solid behind them. ... Trillo backers could move. If they do, they will likely move to Fung."

Fung's campaign, in response to the poll, said that it "flat out rejects the results of this survey."

"Our internal polling has this race within the margin, and any poll that takes 10 days to get a sample raises serious questions about its veracity," said campaign spokesman Andrew Augustus.

"The fact of the matter is, the people of Rhode Island are fed up with the direction of our state and Governor Raimondo's leadership. They are demanding change every day and our survey data reflects that."

The Raimondo campaign, through its spokesman Mike Raia, said, in part: "Polls go up. Polls go down. The Governor and her team are focused on doing everything we can to continue bringing the change that Rhode Islanders need and to earn the support of Rhode Islanders."

Governor's race:

Rhode Islanders are divided on Raimondo's performance as governor. About 50 percent approve, 42 percent disapprove, 8 percent gave no opinion.

More have a generally positive opinion of Raimondo (46 percent) than Fung (40 percent). Negative opinions run close for both her (43 percent) and him (41 percent).

Trillo is seen far less favorably. Only 15 percent have a favorable opinion of him, 14 percent are neutral, 38 percent have an unfavorable view and 33 percent told the pollsters they don't know enough to say.

In simple head-to-head matchup, Raimondo led with 48 percent to 34 percent for Fung, 5 percent for Trillo and 1 percent or less for the other largely unknown contenders who include: Moderate Party candidate Bill Gilbert, Cannabis Party Candidate Anne Armstrong and Independent candidate Luiz Daniel Munoz.

When the undecided voters were asked who they were leaning toward, Raimondo had 49 percent, Fung 36 percent, and Trillo 6 percent.

If there was ever any doubt who had the most to lose with multiple candidates in the race, the pollsters asked who would get their vote if their preferred candidate was not running; 53 percent named Fung, and only 9 percent named Raimondo.

U.S. Senate:

The survey found that Whitehouse's challenger, Flanders, is still relatively unknown despite his legal résumé.

Despite Flanders' attempts to portray Whitehouse as out-of-touch, the poll found that more than half of those surveyed (55 percent) have a favorable impression of the two-term U.S. senator; about 35 percent have a negative impression of him.

Less than a third (31 percent) have a favorable impression of Flanders, 19 percent have an unfavorable opinion and three in eight (38 percent) have no impression at all.

The survey found high interest among the state's potential voters in the midterm election. Three-quarters told the pollsters they are "extremely" or "very interested" in the election; 9 out of 10 plan to vote.

Who was surveyed? The pool included Francis White, 71, of West Greenwich, a self-described independent who leans conservative and says he is voting for Fung.

His reason is simple: "I am a retired schoolteacher, so I am definitely not voting for Raimondo, because she took our COLA away."

"I think she lies a lot," White added. He cited, as an example, Raimondo's ads painting Cranston as a dilapidated city when "Cranston went from the third-largest to the second-largest. Actually people are moving into Cranston."

"I'm not excited about [Fung]," he said, "but I do feel like the Democrats have been running the Legislature for years and years and years, and we're still in the same ridiculous place we've been over that time. I want to give someone else a chance for sure."

On the other side: Beth Phillips, a 60-year-old Cranston Democrat who says she voted for Fung as her mayor, but will vote to reelect Raimondo as governor.

Among her reasons: "When she came on, things were not the best in the state of Rhode Island. I think the economy is better. I think she's starting to tackle the infrastructure problems Rhode Island has. The roads are deplorable. I think she's really taking that on."

Raimondo has made mistakes, she said, but: "She's acknowledged them. She's owned them. I respect her for that. I know she goes in with all good intentions. She weighs things before she makes decisions, and I think most of the time, they're based on knowledge."

Fung's made his mistakes too, like the police situation where the state police had to take over, Phillips said. "And he will not own that. That's the difference. He'll find excuses all over the place."

With reports from staff writer Brian Amaral

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