Poll: California voters undecided in Democrat showdown for insurance commissioner

More than half of California voters haven’t decided which of the two Democrats they’ll back for insurance commissioner, according to a poll conducted late last month.

The poll by Probolsky Research found Republicans are especially uncertain about the race, with nearly 83% saying they’re not sure whether they’ll vote for state Sen. Ben Allen, D-Santa Monica, or former San Francisco Supervisor Jane Kim.

Overall, the poll found Kim was the top choice for 25% of the 1,000 people polled online and by phone compared to 18% who backed Allen.

“This is not a decided race,” said pollster Adam Probolsky.

The poll, which has a margin of error of around 3%, was conducted online and by phone, and wasn’t sponsored by either candidate.

The poll suggests Kim has continued to hold a slight edge from the primary, when she won 27% of the vote, compared to 19% for Allen and nearly 16% for the top Republican, Stacy Korsgaden.

Insurance commissioners license and regulate an industry that’s become especially important in the disaster-prone Golden State. They oversee the California Department of Insurance, an office that regulates home, life, auto, worker’s compensation, and other types of insurance.

Whoever wins will oversee a home insurance market that’s faced turmoil caused by devastating wildfires. The current commissioner, Ricardo Lara, implemented new rules allowing insurers to use catastrophe modeling to set rates, a move that’s led to rate increases for many homeowners but that Lara argues has helped stabilize the market.

Kim has proposed an “insurance for all” platform that would aim to create a state-run, single-payer disaster insurance program funded by a slice of ratepayer premiums. She has also said she’ll work to prevent insurers from raising rates on customers who file home or auto insurance claims. She’s been endorsed by U.S. Sen. Bernie Sanders, I-Vt., and won endorsements from the California Federation of Labor and SEIU-California.

Allen has anchored his campaign pitch around his more than decade of legislative experience. He says he’ll balance market reforms with consumer protections, including expanding programs to help residents make their homes more fire-resistant. He won the California Democratic Party endorsement last month and is backed by both of California’s U.S. senators and many environmental groups.

Both candidates say their message holds appeal to independents and Republicans who may prove decisive.

Allen’s spokesperson, Joe Arellano, called the race wide open.

“Jane Kim’s ‘Disaster for All’ plan will bankrupt the state, cost billions and may never be implemented,” Arellano said in an email. “California can’t gamble with the state budget and driving up costs for ratepayers at this critical moment.”

Kim noted that she beat Allen in most California counties, including ones that lean rural and red.

“People are tired of insurance companies ripping them off, and they’re ready for change,” Kim said in a statement. “That’s why this poll reflects our steady and consistent lead across the state.”

Mike Madrid, a Republican and anti-Trump strategist, said the best way for the Democrats to win over GOP voters was to go negative on their opponent.

“That’s a risky play,” Madrid said, pointing to possibility of turning off Democratic voters.

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